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Originally Posted by DoctorEvil
Upon re-reading my response I see I left out a paragraph
That "lack of sustanability because of design limitation" is a moot point if GW can find a way to appeal to a new audience. MtG had the same design limitations yet it is still alive today. Why is it?
The existing player base is not what's going to keep this game going. ANet needs a continual stream of new players to sustain this "business model". That means future expansions will be geared towards a new player base. So what does that mean to the existing player base? They are probably going to make content decisions that you do not like. Somebody in ANet marketing probably has a statistic that says "The Average Consumer who purchased Guild Wars (insert chapter here) quit playing after X months". From their standpoint we have a shelf life. They're assuming we'll quit playing at sometime in the future. With that in mind are you going to build your "business model" around that bunch of customers? Nope.
The future of GW will be in the hands of new customers. Like any corporate entity, the future of GW will be based on money, in this case amount of sales. I can hear the response now "That's my point, we're not buying Chapter 3 because of the poor quality of Chapter 2". That's already been factored in the equation by the bean counters. They're going to expect a certain amount of people who bought Chapter 1 or 2 not to buy Chapter 3.
The sustainability of GW will be more of a function of marketing than it will be of quality design. Don't get me wrong, there has to be some level of quality to a game because poor reviews lead to poor marketing and poor sales. But if you were to look at Factions as a new game, having never played Chapter One before it would probably rate pretty well. The problem with Factions is that we (existing players) are comparing it to Chapter One, which without a doubt it does not measure up well to (I'd argue that as an expansion it measures up better, but that's another discussion).
So that's where I disagree....I believe GW's sustainability will NOT be a function of design limitations, but will be a function of marketing to new players. All games have design limitations. Not all games end up being sustainable.
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If that's the case, then why are people still playing diablo 2?
Because (to answer my own question) their game design, as flawed as it was, was sustainable even with dwindling sales. ANet decided to go in a slightly different direction.
You can not abandon your core player base. That's suicide. Why do you think ANet kept coming out with more content (SF, Tombs, Titan Quests, etc) for existing players in chapter one? To keep people from going off and playing WoW. Still happened, but if ANet hadn't injected new FREE content, especially content that provided at least some replayability for exisiting players, the bleeding would've been worse.
In some respects, you're right, just look at diablo 2, and the expansion lod. Lots of people quit playing D2 after the grind got to them (I know, I was one of them) yet came back and played the snot out of lod when it was released. That expansion alone kept me busy for well over a year. And this was in spite of the duping, twinking, and grinding that was going on. You could get to level 90 in three days with the right help, and knowledge of where to farm experience, and when to jump to the next chapter. After that, it was all farming for phat lewt. For over a year. Cow runs over and over. What killed Diablo was the duping - suddenly, all that grinding to find magical items went goodbye. Everyone was uber leet, with top gear and storages full of SOJs/Runes.
But you can't kill off your core player base - the ones that bought multiple copies of GW, the ones that pvp every night, the ones that grind out Tombs runs over and over - because they are your sustainability. They will continue to buy the game simply because they have to keep up with the jones.
And if players didn't buy GW in the first place, very few will buy any expansion - even if it's marketed and designed as a standalone product. Either you liked GW's model of gameplay, or you didn't. If you had to choose between WoW and GW, you've made it by now. And apparently since 5 times more people are playing WoW, I'd say the masses have spoken. So, you're not going to pull away WoW players, it's too late for that. You need to sustain sales within your niche.
I'm not saying "all the time" just generally.
I have three copies of GW at home. I have one copy of Factions. I hope the trend doesn't continue. I love this game too much.
And anyone saying "oh, you obviously hate the game" - you're a moron.