Probability of getting that drop

Been solo farming ectos in the first chamber of UW for a few days now. So far I have come up with:

4% or 1 in 25 chance of any ecto dropper to drop an ecto
70% chance of getting one ecto from a run
Cost per run after selling drops but not ectos about 300 gold.

Only on 40 runs right now but the numbers have stayed surprisingly steady from 20 to 40.

GW and other similar games are the babies of what us old folks like to call MUD's, and MUD's are the babies of what some (like me) might remember as Dungeons & Dragons (et other table top dicers). GW is the same thing, with graphics (ooo), and much larger servers. At the heart, and very basic game mechanics, the games remain the same. It IS flipping coins/rolling dice.

If x item has a 40% drop rate assigned to it, then every time there's a chance for it to drop the code essentially rolls a 60 sided die, and every time that roll goes you have a 1 in 60 chance of getting it. No 60? No item! Grab 6x 10 sided dice (if you're like me and still have some) and toss them 60 times. How many times did you roll 60?

I don't know for certain sure how GW works 100% when it comes to assigning priority over other items that can drop from said mob, but I do know when I worked on a MUD way back when we coded it to give priority to more common items. If mob X has a chance to drop 5 items (a/b/c/d/e) with respective drop rates of 80% / 70% / 60% / 40% / 10% then the code rolled for each item, and if more than 1 item rolled gold it would only drop the one with the highest % to drop. Ex: It rolls 15/30/4/1/90 the code would plop out item b as opposed to item e, even though they both rolled the magic numbers.

It does the same thing for your weapon damage. 15-22 for your sword, every time you swing it the code rolls a 7 sided die and generates your damage.

Are there other factors that effect your chances? Sure are! Some you know about, some you don't, and that's why threads like this pop up every once in a while.

And now I return to chasing hoodlums off my lawn with a cane ....

Wiki used to have under each ecto dropping foe their %.
Aatxes/mindblades/dryders ( forget the others ) are 4% and smites are 2% chance to drop an ecto.

Way i read things - you enter a zone and you have set % chances or each foe - say run ended and you got no special drops now if you retry farm then you have % chance from start again .Say you did 50 runs that 50 chances you have and again thats the same % reset each run.
It may seem that more runs you do the better chance but actually its the same chance and same odds but that run may be the winning run.

Ages ago i used to farm the avatar of dwayna for either elite derv tomes or the scythe , did about 20 runs consec and i only got 1 elite tome an 1 scythe.few days later did another 20 runs and nothing.I was lucky on the runs that gave the scythe an elite tome and the 38 other runs i was unlucky on.

Exactly, I have noticed that in just the 40 runs it averaged out amazingly well. It is like a coin flip though. No matter how many times you flip a coin EACH flip is still 50/50.

One trend that seems to be manifesting is that the single Aatxe that roams up the stairs to the right (when facing north) drops more often than any other Aatxe. Same with the Skellie up the stairs to the center. Not enough data points to call it a significant trend but even before collecting data I noticed the trend.

What is the point of this thread?

Sorry but how obvious is that? How could someone possibly think the chance of getting a particular drop over a period of time doesn't increase the longer the period is? The fact that chance doesn't have memory (chance of getting the drop you want from a chest is the same each time you open it)... is also obvious?

It's not "obvious" for everybody. And even if it's "obvious" for some people, it's nice to have actual math proof and numbers.

Look at it this way: the next time somebody disputes that claim you can say "go read this thread", instead of "it's obvious".

I think he meant it in the physical sense. The code is not physically throwing dice, which would be "real" random generation. Instead it's doing all sorts of gimmicks that make the numbers seem random enough. But it uses the same way of doing that (the same algorithm), and so the first number picked to start the sequence will produce a fixed sequence. Now, consider that usually that first number is taken from the system clock, and you'll see why it's technically possible for people to sync their entry into an instance and basically share the same "random" sequence.

It doesn't mean it will be a particularly lucky or unlucky one, but, as Chthon described, if it is it can be exploited.

I wonder why nobody invented a purely physical device for this. Feed cabbage to a bunny and have a sensor go off whenever it farts or something like that. ^_^

OR!! i got a good analogy... !! ask someone...

If you stand on a road for 5 minutes and for 5 days... At which of those two instance is the possibility of u getting hit by a car higher...

Ask him to conduct a empirical test... and if comes back in 5 days tell him hes lucky....

While this may be true for some MUDs (yes, I played one for years too!) I highly doubt it in GW. You either beat the odds and get lucky with the drop out of their present items, or you don't. I don't believe for a second that, for example, Lucky Aura or putting on particular titles gives you any advantage outside of pure coincidence. Same deal for having a lucky or unlucky character as some seem to believe.

Re: The drops being pre-planned on entry into the zone and sync entering...They never did this with dungeon chests or with present type items which both are most likely generated separately from monster/locked chest loot. If you could prove that sync entering altered those contents to match then you'd be onto something but I doubt it. A few tried to game the system already in Strength of Snow watching for small updates indicating the Polar Bear model loaded and we see how well that worked out...

Exactly this, lol. How's it even worth putting on a forum? Even if you don't know any math at all, it's just logical.

This mechanic opens up a lot more questions that have never really been answered. A quick listing of relevant theories on item generation:

- The drop seeds get worse and worse (on average) as you repeatedly farm an instance. The game always claimed that it worked that way in the help messages, and the data I had from Prot Bond farming back in 2005 strongly suggested that this was the case. If you went and played a mission or two then returned to UW, the frequency of ecto drops more or less doubled, and I did enough runs under both conditions that it was extremely unlikely that random chance was the explanation.

Anecdotally, there is additional evidence that tends to confirm the theory. Most UW/FoW groups seem to subscribe to the theory that the noob always gets the good drop from the end chest. Repeatedly farming the instance fits the theory; the players that have farmed the instance the most are likely to be the most skilled, and incompetent players very likely haven't done as many runs. The result would be that the incompetent player is more likely to get a good drop from the end chest on any given run, leading to players noticing a pattern.

Finally, I've also noticed that non-max items such as Bone Dragon Staves only drop from end chests for players that have been repeatedly farming the instance for some time, which also fits the theory.

- The number of players farming an instance affects the seed. I got a very nice controlled experiment during HM Urgoz farming, because I was down there for three weeks before some nitwit posted to Guru. The drop rates on Gold items per hour halved once the instance became crowded, and that sort of change was extremely unlikely to be caused by random chance given the number of runs involved.

- The time of day affects the seed and interacts with the number of players. Gold item drops tended to cluster around the top of the hour once everyone showed up in HM Urgoz. The pre-crowd drop rate prevailed for about fifteen minutes, and then Gold drops would dry up until the beginning of the next hour. No such pattern was observed prior to the large increase in players after the Guru post.

That data isn't exactly current, of course. I don't have anything available from more recent events such as Elemental Sword farming, Chaos Plains, or keg/raptor farming that suddenly exploded in popularity after a Guru post, so some or all of the above explanations may no longer be true. There is countervailing evidence that current UW ecto drop rates seem to be consistently replicated by players even after numerous runs, which suggests that at least some aspects of the drop code have changed since 2005-2007.

More accurately: you get 50% chance of getting 0, and 50% chance of getting at least one (could be more of course). Because you are actually calculating the odds of never getting one and then subtracting that from 100% to get odds of getting at least one.

I agree with both of these observations and can say CoF took a massive hit once 600 became widespread and popular. Unless you farmed it at off peak hours it was not unusual to see runs without a single gold drop in it's prime. How do you convince people to stop farming an area to improve the overall volume of drops...you can't. It's a perfect system to keep popular areas in check.

There was a post from Gaile at the time loot scale was implemented admitting that this was how the "anti-farm code" had worked, and claiming with vehemence that it was removed and replaced by loot scale.

In any event, the synch tests show without a doubt that entry time alone controls the PRNG, and the PRNG controls what drops and what mods it has. Loot scale (possibly along with other anti-farm measures) is layered over the top of the basic loot generation system and causes non-materialization of certain generated drops in certain situations. I've got no data on how loot division works.

thats not correct. at its heart a computer is 1s and 0s.

did you open your computer case and see a tiny gnome in there flipping coins and rolling dice?

no?

then rng is CODE.

Ive shown you examples of other games where rng can be, and has been manipulated.... because its code, and humans make code.

Ive shown you how devs might have a motivation to manipulate rng.


im not saying that guild wars does this purposefully. for guild wars 2 i have a strong feeling the devs have at least looked at the possibility of having loot limits or timers put in place.


but in general, for all computer games and code.... RNG is essentially random, but not necessarily random.

Right, but do you believe Gaile, or your own lying eyes?

The way it looks to me, based on the evidence, is that the repeated instancing code was replaced when loot scaling was introduced for items that drop from monsters. (Otherwise, it's hard to explain players' ecto drop tests, or my own HM Urgoz drop results.) However, it seems as though repeated instancing causes a decline in the quality of drops from end chests.

That proposition is impossible to support without a lot more runs than I'm willing to do given the extremely low drop rates involved, but there is more evidence to support the proposition than there is that contradicts it.

The best way to describe it is pseudo-random: a computer's RNG mimics a random number generator in certain essential ways, but if you can figure out the code underlying the seed you can cause non-random behavior.

I made sure to farm UW no more than 10 times in a single set of runs without either logging off for a day or doing something else. I don't know when the anti-farming code kicks in but I bet it takes more than 10 runs.

Previously it was less than a dozen before you got a window that warned you the quality of drops would diminish due to repeated zoning or something similar to that wording. Used to set that thing off constantly farming greens back in the good old days. Whether or not this is still the case....?

I don't know that any of those things in particular would affect your drop chances, but there are definitely factors beyond the rng code. Of this I am certain sure. My husband and I have both logged quite a few thousand hours on our main accounts since 2005. He has had a few hundred black dye drops over the years & I have had a sum total of 4. It doesn't matter which computers we play from, or which ISP we use, the ratio remains the same. While there may not be a drop choke on every account I am positive there's one associated to black dye on mine.

I'm not standing in a road at any point because the odds are greater during the night, but less probable because of lower traffic, it is the opposite during the day. I get what you're saying though it doesn't relate to the drop rate of ectoplasm much, it is completely coincidental.