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Originally Posted by Necron I I
Ok,i got one that i think ,for what it's worth ,proves that your SS vs SV theory isn't entirely correct.
I've been farming hydras around Augury rock in HM using mostly SV.The poorest drops i've ever gotten out of GW(it isn't profitable but kills the little freetime that i've got
).Now in accordance to the "overfarmed" theory,when the majority of players is atm in NF ,then i should be getting tons of golds + i'm killing one at a time.I have yet to see a gold drop for me in there,whilst when i do the DS farm ,and use splinter barrage build(with it the run takes about 5-7 mins) and kill 1 mob simultaniously, i get between 6-8 gold drops.
This is why I think the "timer" theory is more accurate.Doesen't matter how much u kill at a time,it matters when you kill them.
Edit:
I appologise if you guys can't quite get my logic.It's almost 5:30 AM over here and i'm very sleepy.
Don't you suppose for an instant that you ought to be comparing the hydras you're killing to something else? There aren't exactly loads of them and I've never known them to have particularly good drops anyway.
In any case... do it another 20 times and see if the pattern is the same.
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Originally Posted by Bloodied Blade
With all due respect to the idea behind the thread, there is the finite possibility that all data collected is inherently flawed...thus rendering a possible fact v. myth usage of said data useless.
On that same basis, there is a finite possibility that all data in the entire world on any and all subjects is inherently flawed... thus rendering it all useless. Everything you have ever been taught therefore is effectively null and void.
Now try going about your life with that premise.
You'll find that "knowledge" is essentially just consistancy of pattern. It certainly isn't infallible... but it can be reliable, and that is what counts. Guild Wars drop rate variables are difficult to predict additionally... but effectively disproving many of these supposed variables as actually being completely unconnected is considerably easier.
I'm not trying to say that any of these things (except where strictly stated by A-Net) are definitely valid.... but there are some that I can say with substancially high certainty are invalid.
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Originally Posted by WildmouseX
with the myth of your kill rate, i haven't seen any data that shows killing one by one is better then killing the whole group at a time... the best effort was the graph up at the first page, but that only compares a total of 8 runs, which isn't enough data to make any decissions off of.
most of the myths about farming come from people not understanding the concept of the law of averages.... the more times you do something, the more times each posible outcome will play out.
everytime you flip a coin, you have a 50/50 chance of it landing on heads... but if you flip it only 8 times and it comes up tails 6 times - you have no reason to then think you have 80% chance of tails... and likewise, if you then walk into another room and flip it 8 times again and get all heads, you can't all of a sudden think that fliping it in that room will always net heads.
even if it is true that killing them 1 at a time is netting you more drops - you then have to test the time it takes to drop the mob, vs droping them 1 at a time.. i'm well versed in that spider farm, killing the mob with SS is about a three min. job when they don't co-operate with you --i can only imagine that killing them one at a time is much more costly in time. - if you're doing 5 times as many runs killing the mob, then you do killing them one at a time then the drops will defenetly add up to being more when killing en-mass.
the number one rule of statistics "corolation does not denote causeality".
I've been spirit farming the suicide vamps in urgoz's warren over the last week, and paying particular attention to my drops... i leave with all but one row open in inv of just my backpack. usualy it takes an hour to fill it up twice, and it typicly nets between 3 to 5 gold drops... there have been times when i went in and got gold drops right away, and then they'd dry up untill it was time to merch... and stay dry untill i only had 3 or 4 slots left, and then they'd all drop in 1 run. and other times where one drops every 5 runs. and there have been times when i went over an hour without gold drops, then gotten 12 three runs apart.
since this spot has been very hot recently, it has been packed with people doing the run, and drops have remained unaffected. this means i average 8 golds an hour. i've done 10 hours of farming there over the week, and have id'd 84 golds since i started.
just like anything else in the universe that is governed by the law of averages, there are always going to be peeks and valleys to the drops your getting - it is not a conspiricey by the devs to ruin your fun!
Correlation might not denote causality... but if the null hypothesis is always assumed true then effectively we know nothing... and are left in pure chaos. Sometimes one needs to make an arbitrary guess.... select a supposed causality and run with it in order to stand a chance of functioning.
And let us not forget that generally.... in practice.... the more times a particular task is repeated.... the more the results will tend toward the average. This is never perfect... but it can be reliable enough to work with.
Oh.... AND.... didn't we already mention that the whole AoE vs Individual Kill only seems to influence scaled loot? That does seem to be what the trends point to. Gold drops aren't influenced by it... so essentially if you're farming golds you might as well nuke the groups if it will get the whole job done faster. |
) there will be a major crash of the ingame economy,not that there currently isn't but i consider it to be just a period of the game's "evolution" so to speak...
