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Originally Posted by Ozric
I was never interested in the Lucky/Unlucky title until they tied it to the retention rate of the Lockpick. I'll be an afk Ele this weekend, all weekend. *sigh*.
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I posted this in a thread in Sardelac, but it is probably worth mirroring here.
The true value of a lockpick is (chance = chance of lockpick NOT breaking):
1500 + 1500 * chance + 1500 * chance^2 + 1500 * chance^3 + 1500 * chance^4 + etc... the sequence goes on forever. That sequence converges to 1500 / chance.
@ default 10%
1500 / 0.9 = 1667g
@ 12% w/ lucky 1
1500 / 0.88 = 1705g
So by getting lucky 1, you save 38g per lockpick. Wiki says the cheapest way to get lucky 1 costs 44.1k. You'll need to use 1164 lockpicks to break even. If you open 7 a day, it will take you nearly half a year to break even. Then, every 44th lockpick is "free."
@ 14% w/ lucky 2
1500 / 0.86 = 1744g
Getting lucky 2 saves you 40g per lockpick over lucky 1. Lucky 2 takes another 44.1k over lucky 1. You'll need to use 1112 more lockpicks to break even. After that, every time you use a lockpick, you save 78g. So every 21.5th lockpick is "free" - after you break even.
@ 16% w/ lucky 3
1500 / 0.84 = 1786g
Getting lucky 3 saves you 42g per lockpick over lucky 2. Lucky 3 takes another 132.4k over lucky 2. You'll need to use 3188 additional lockpicks to break even. After that, every time you use a lockpick, you save 119g. Every 14th additional lockpick is "free."
Get the lucky title if you want the lucky title. Getting it to help w/ lockpicks is a horrible investment.