The direction of the border shift depends on the performance of the Luxons and Kurzicks in alliance battles.
Also, when a faction has recently gained a town, there's a momentum bonus that gives that faction easier time to capture another town. (exact mechanism unknown)
Borders swift every 3 hours. For EST timezone, the times are 2:00, 5:00, 8:00 and 11:00 on the 12 hour clock. (GMT 12:00, 3:00, 6:00 and 9:00)
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Well... After the beta weekend, competitive missions and storyline missions no longer have owning alliances, thus no longer capturable by opposing factions. (In the Factions retail box, there's a screenshot with Breaker Hollow and Fort Aspenwood Luxon in the Kurzick hands). However, challenge missions still have owning alliances, which brings up to the question whether they're capturable or not...
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