Curse

CyberMesh0 · Sep 12, 2007, 09:34 PM // 21:34

Ignoring lockpicks earned me over 150k in the course of two weeks, over normal play. Within 15 hours of EotN play (finishing the storyline) I had pulled another 40k.

Stolen Souls · Sep 12, 2007, 09:55 PM // 21:55

I used well over 50 lockpicks in GW:EN before realizing...."hey....this isn't worth it." -_-

Lockpicks were never worth it in Normal Mode, and that still applies.

Simple solution...if you have bad luck (like me)....don't use lockpicks in GW:EN. Use them elsewhere...like HM, where Lockpicks belong...

HawkofStorms · Sep 12, 2007, 10:11 PM // 22:11

I just opened 6 chests in a row with one lockpick and 56% chance of retention. Is it hax? Luck? Nope, just random grouping of a small statistical sample. Flip a coin 8 times in a row. I bet it won't land on heads 4 times out of 8. Statistically, it might, but that doesn't mean it has too.

Also, you are SUPPOSED to lose money on chests. They are a gold sink, designed to sap up money out of the economy to prevent inflation.

CyberMesh0 · Sep 12, 2007, 10:19 PM // 22:19

15% retention lost me 40 picks before I retained one. 50% retention lost me 10 picks before retaining one. It's all luck.

byteme! · Sep 12, 2007, 11:02 PM // 23:02

Quote:

Originally Posted by wetsparks

You're getting upset because your sample of NINE chests doesn't come to the 54% you expect given your retention rate? That sample size is called statistically insignificant. Go open one hundred or two hundred chests to get a true sample size and then look at your results.

What if he can only count to 9? HE'S SCREWED!

jon0592 · Sep 12, 2007, 11:04 PM // 23:04

At least now you can try to resist...and then you'll know not to buy lottery tickets or go to the casino in real life!

CHunterX · Sep 12, 2007, 11:22 PM // 23:22

Nothing rang a bell in your head when you were using lock picks in Normal mode... nothing? I think I used one lock pick in GW:EN, retained it, got a purple, and sold both lock pick and item to the merchant. Its a joke. I can't believe its taken everyone this long to realize this. You'd think after a week of hemorrhaging money you'd snap out of it.

MithranArkanere · Sep 12, 2007, 11:24 PM // 23:24

Hm... just bad luck. Last sunday I openened all chests I found in the Temple of the Damned with a single lockpick. 47%.

It's better to have lucky 2 or 3 before starting using lockpicks.

nechronius · Sep 13, 2007, 12:03 AM // 00:03

I've opened 169 "high level" chests since I started playing. About one third using lockpicks, and lockpicks primarily in GWEN.

Yes, the drops suck. However...

An R12 inscribable Elemental Sword dropped for me in normal mode Nightfall using an Ancient Elonian Key.
An R10 inscribable Elemental Sword dropped for me in GWEN using a lockpick.

Both gold and max damage (are there any other kind??). Each are 100k a pop or more. I sold the R12 last month or so. I'm trying to sell the R10 now.

Assuming I had opened every chest with a lockpick (which I didn't) that means I've spent 253,500 gold on picks so far. The actual cost of all the keys is probably realistically closer to 170,000. If I really really lowball the R10 sword and sell it for 70k, I'd still be breaking even on all the money I spent on the picks and keys with those two items alone.

Remember, the money you're spending is really what you spend to achieve your titles. Every once in a while you get a lucky break and recoup some of your losses, or maybe all of them and then some. I certainly don't expect this trend to continue.

TechnoSword · Sep 13, 2007, 04:19 AM // 04:19

Before GWEN came out I purchased 100 lockpicks, by the time I had to buy 100 more I had already opened a little over 300 chests (57% Retention) and my lucky skill title went up by around 61,000. On top of that I have had 2 sephis sword drops and a ton of mods I can easily sell. It may cost me a ton of gold, it doesnt make ALL the money back, but I still love and appreciate it =D

cliffchai76 · Sep 13, 2007, 04:42 AM // 04:42

I actually thought the quality of the drops improved from the last update on 6 September, from my observation anyway. Before tha update, I would try like 5 picks at a time and only managed to retain 1 at 43% retention. The drops would typically contain only one gold.

I tried again after the update and retained 3 times on 2 lockpicks and picked up at least 2 golds out of 5, including an R9 plat bow. I tried again on a second occasion and also noticed something similar. So I thought they kind of tweaked the drop rates with the update. Maybe not, from what I'm reading here.

MirkoTeran · Sep 13, 2007, 05:36 AM // 05:36

Anet needs to put a link to wiki (or make a article about it) for word random as so many people here and in game don't understand it.

Gonzo · Sep 13, 2007, 07:53 AM // 07:53

I take one lockpick in dungeons, since the quest reward buys me back a lockpick. Sometimes I loose it at the first chest, sometimes I get to open loads and on some rare occasions I get some good mods out of it.

Tijger · Sep 13, 2007, 08:45 AM // 08:45

Quote:

Originally Posted by gentrinity

welcome to the club man -- nobody buys lockpicks anymore -- unless you are hardpressed to get your treasure hunter title. But in all honesty -- if you are going for the treasure hunter title -- go to the wurm areas in NF -- buy the ancient keys for what....600 something? and add to ur title that way. At least the items are max dmg... though mostly purple.

Resist lockpicks -- perhaps HM will help with the chest ratio

I buy lockpicks, I tend to break even on them financially but it does help to have at least some ranks in lucky and treasure hunter, yes.
Sure its a goldsink which is why I basically only buy them with the proceeds of whatever I've been doing.

Gli · Sep 13, 2007, 08:51 AM // 08:51

I'm going through lockpicks like a mad in GW:EN, 65% retention chance notwithstanding. (I have no statistics to back it up but I sure feel as if I'm breaking far more often than retaining.) I've just bought my 3rd stack of 100. Surprisingly, I'm managing to break even, but that's thanks to a few lucky dungeon end-chest drops, and having sold almost 2 dozen onyx gems, which I quite often get from hidden treasures.

Matt_Night · Sep 13, 2007, 10:27 AM // 10:27

Quote:

Originally Posted by wetsparks

You're getting upset because your sample of NINE chests doesn't come to the 54% you expect given your retention rate? That sample size is called statistically insignificant. Go open one hundred or two hundred chests to get a true sample size and then look at your results.

well, I'm buying around 200-300 lockpicks a month, and i have i have 60% chance to keep the pick. Altho I'm not keeping exact track of broken/retained ones I can easilly say that what I'm actually retaining is around 25-35% at the very best. Same goes for salvaging - 78% for the item not to break ...in theory o0

Davros Uitar · Sep 13, 2007, 11:54 AM // 11:54

So far I have opened 270 GWEN chests via lockpicks. Probably my last 2500 chests for chest run title have been via lockpicks (buying at 1250 on open market). I have a few points of agreements and disagreement :

1) It's random guys and gals - and my lockpick rate of 66% is almost being met in my view (59.5%).
2) My stats say there could well be a statistical difference for retention rate and gold rate before and after the last update, with both doing better now. The population of the 2 samples though is not big enough to be statistically conclusive, so it may come down to luck.
3) Over and above the cost of the 1500 lockpicks I am about 250K up, and that doesnt include things like the keepers for my own sword and shield collection (Elemental, Zodiac etc).
4) Anyone who can't afford to persist solidly with lockpicks all the time will get either very crap luck or very good luck - you on't break even if you can't afford to ride the bumps and stay with it. You can get runs of up to 20 failures and 20 successes in a row.
5) I love lockpicks - way simpler to deal with than buying and managing many of each type pf key.

quickmonty · Sep 13, 2007, 12:58 PM // 12:58

I now sell all keys and lockpicks that drop for me. I've never had a chest drop that was worth more than the key/lockpick. Maybe I'm just not lucky, but I'd rather have the sure cash then take a chance. No .... I do not buy lottery tickets either.

Tijger · Sep 13, 2007, 01:07 PM // 13:07

Quote:

Originally Posted by quickmonty

I now sell all keys and lockpicks that drop for me. I've never had a chest drop that was worth more than the key/lockpick. Maybe I'm just not lucky, but I'd rather have the sure cash then take a chance. No .... I do not buy lottery tickets either.

Good way to look at it because it is a lottery and your position is perfectly valid, I just like playing the chest game

Buzzer · Sep 13, 2007, 03:03 PM // 15:03

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matt_Night

well, I'm buying around 200-300 lockpicks a month, and i have i have 60% chance to keep the pick. Altho I'm not keeping exact track of broken/retained ones I can easilly say that what I'm actually retaining is around 25-35% at the very best. Same goes for salvaging - 78% for the item not to break ...in theory o0

Sorry but I won't believe you until you post data. The truth is, people notice lockpick breaks more than retains.
Availability heuristic