Curse

HawkofStorms · Aug 22, 2006, 09:28 PM // 21:28

Now, as many of you may have noticed, the AB line seems to have been moving rather erratically lately. Many are quite happy to finally be playing different AB maps and for the more dynamic nature of the world now.

Some have attributed this to some unannounced update.

I believe there is a statistically reason for this occuring, which I will now attempt to explain.
In a perfect world, the Luxons and the Kurzicks are equal. They would each win 50% of the time in Saltspray. With 1000 games played, 500 would be won by either side.

However, think of ABs as a statistically sampling. If only say 10 games were played, then the luxons could win 5 times and lose the other 5 times. However, they could also very easily win 7 or 8 times (or lose 7 or 8 times). Go ahead and flip a coin 5 times and count the number of tails. If heads comes up 5 times would you say that the coin never comes up tails? Of course not.

With smaller sample size, the chance for variation in the samplings increases, which is a simple statistical theory. I believe that the new shifting AB line is a result of less games being played. If you look closly, you will see that this new AB line began right around the time of school coming back into session. With many kids now unable to play as often as they used to, it would obviously mean less people are playing overall.

Thus simplified..... school started > 10-21 year olds have less time to play > less ABs played > smaller sampling of ABs results in larger varations from the 50/50 norm > more erratic AB line.

Carinae · Aug 22, 2006, 10:01 PM // 22:01

Everyone becomes Luxon, problem solved permanently.

The truth itself · Aug 22, 2006, 10:13 PM // 22:13

No, this is wrong. People still play "a lot".

I think you have something right in your theory, here's my theory.

The script counts game results of the next Y games, the side with the most wins will gain xx% terrain. I believe they just changed the Y number, from a high number to a lower number.

They probaly also made it much more sensitive.

Algeron Zolo · Aug 22, 2006, 10:13 PM // 22:13

Sounds good, but this theory makes my brain hurt.

Ulivious The Reaper · Aug 22, 2006, 10:22 PM // 22:22

Good theory, quite truthful in my case, although i don't have any homework because my schools not that hard but i still have 6 hours of gw time drained away by school.. oh well i still get to play thankfully

Zehnchu · Aug 22, 2006, 10:22 PM // 22:22

it was announced in an update

Quote:

Update - Thursday July 13

Modified the algorithm that causes the alliance battle line to shift. A faction that pushes into enemy territory will temporarily gain a "momentum bonus" that helps it drive the battle line further into enemy territory.

Since then they said they have been tweaking it some.

HawkofStorms · Aug 22, 2006, 10:37 PM // 22:37

Yes, but I was playing after that Thursday July 13th bonus and really it was just the same as it was before. Only in the past week has it changed drastically. Until I hear Galie say that they changed the code reccently and acknowledge this, I still believe my theory has some truth.

Note, this may not be an either or situation. Changing the code AND this could both affect the line.

Granted, there are a lot of things still to know about how the line is calculated. For now we can just speculate. For example, if Luxons win 8 games and Kurzicks win 4 in one 3 hour time frame (really really simplified and scaled down I know) does the line swing into Kurzick territory more or less then if Luxons win 4 and Kurzicks win 2. Both instances the Luxons have won twice as many games. But the margain of victory in terms of wins different.

Zehnchu · Aug 23, 2006, 05:39 AM // 05:39

Quote:

Originally Posted by HawkofStorms

Yes, but I was playing after that Thursday July 13th bonus and really it was just the same as it was before. Only in the past week has it changed drastically. Until I hear Galie say that they changed the code reccently and acknowledge this, I still believe my theory has some truth.

Note, this may not be an either or situation. Changing the code AND this could both affect the line.

Granted, there are a lot of things still to know about how the line is calculated. For now we can just speculate. For example, if Luxons win 8 games and Kurzicks win 4 in one 3 hour time frame (really really simplified and scaled down I know) does the line swing into Kurzick territory more or less then if Luxons win 4 and Kurzicks win 2. Both instances the Luxons have won twice as many games. But the margain of victory in terms of wins different.

Andrew Patrick is from Anet.
http://www.guildwarsguru.com/forum/s...php?t=10027638

magras · Aug 23, 2006, 09:11 AM // 09:11

from the july 13th update

Modified the algorithm that causes the alliance battle line to shift. A faction that pushes into enemy territory will temporarily gain a "momentum bonus" that helps it drive the battle line further into enemy territory.

EPO Bot · Aug 23, 2006, 09:41 AM // 09:41

Does anyone know what happens when one side takes over everything?

Omega X · Aug 23, 2006, 10:01 AM // 10:01

Quote:

Originally Posted by EPO Bot

Does anyone know what happens when one side takes over everything?

No one has really found that out yet.

And at the rate that ABs are going now, we probably won't know until after Nightfall is released and the population in Cantha is thinned out.

-Loki- · Aug 23, 2006, 11:24 AM // 11:24

The closest I've heard it got to being totally dominated was on the first night it shifted so dramatically, the Kurzicks were 4 wins away from taking Cavalon, then the Luxons pulled their fingers out of their asses and fought back.

Priceykins · Aug 23, 2006, 11:43 AM // 11:43

weeeelll, the kurzicks actually owned all the luxon towns they could possibly own.

Each side has 2 strongholds that will never change hands

Luxon
Cavalon
The Aurios Mines

Kurzick
House Zu Heltzer
Altrumm Ruins

In addition, there are 5 outposts on each side that will always remain uncontested, aka held by the corresponding sides npcs.

Boreas seabed
Gyala Hatchery
Eternal Grove
Arborstone
Aspenwood(lux and kurz)
Jade quarry(lux an kurz)
Unwaking waters(lux and kurz)

Hence, there is only a total of 14 contestable locations

amatz basin(easiest for kurz to hold)
Tanglewood copse
Saint Anjekas Shrine
Lutgardis Conservatory
Brauer Academy
Vasburg Armoury
Durheim Archive
Harvest temple
Seafearers rest
Leviathin Pits
Eredon Terrace
Bai Paasu Reach
Breakerhollow
Zos Shiveros (easiest for luxon to hold)

Hence the closer to the main stronghold of each land, the easier it is to hold, or the harder to capture.

SpeedyKQ · Aug 23, 2006, 01:18 PM // 13:18

Does anyone know what this so-called "momentum bonus" is? Does it affect gameplay in some way to give one side an edge, or is it just about how the line gets moved?

Priceykins · Aug 23, 2006, 01:38 PM // 13:38

The momentum bonus doesn't confer a gamplay advantage, to one side, the masps do that already.

However, when it comes to the line movment algoritim, the bonus will mean that the side currently winning, does not have to win as high a percentage of abs etc to continue the line moving in their direction.

This makes more sence, as to impliment this ingame would require a buff to one side and a nerf as such to the other, which would be hard to impliment, unless they gave the side with momentum a buff condition, that was on during the battles.

Rampager · Aug 23, 2006, 01:41 PM // 13:41

i may be speculating here but i think its anet just showing us the maps before everyone leaves Factions for Nightfall

Priceykins · Aug 23, 2006, 02:03 PM // 14:03

Its a good theory, but to be honest, anet wanted people to see the maps the whole wau through, thats why they made a variety of them to fight on. But their original algorithim for calculating how the map line moved etc was flawed, as for the first while in factions the line barely moved, and we had stalemate.

Anet have added the momentum boost to make it like they had orionally planned, with territorys being gained and lost in major ways, adding to the game really, as it means people get a sense of pride when their faction makes a move into the enemy territory.

Rampager · Aug 23, 2006, 02:11 PM // 14:11

yeah but what im saying is i really dont see luxon winning like 500 times in a row (not that they couldnt) but what im trying to get at all of a sudden kurz are outside cavalon then 20 hours later luxon are getting near HzH? i can see that heppening just like that. i might believe it if there was a stalemate in the middle again for a day or 2 before they could push kurz back.

BTW i dont go for kurz or lux im just voicing my opinion

Priceykins · Aug 23, 2006, 02:17 PM // 14:17

True, it is a bit strange to see a battle swinging so hughely so suddenly, assuming GW runs on real world time, which it doesnt.

Just think that each Ab would take in real life quite a long time to fight out, hence say in game terms one or 2 abs constitutes a day maybe, hence that allows the battle line to shift at an appropriate "in game rate" which looks fast to us in our real time.

Plus, as to having a stale mate int he middle, this wouldnt happen in real life if one side gains the advantage in a push, aka momentum, as the push would just break throught he eneimies defences and sweep them away. The only way it would hit a stalemate in the middle again is if the momentum of one side was broken.

Rampager · Aug 23, 2006, 02:21 PM // 14:21

the momentum only works when you are past the middle into either sides area. cant remember where i read this. so when it reaches the middle again its anyones game