Curse

Alleji · Mar 30, 2009, 03:25 AM // 03:25

For a long time now I noticed that whenever I try to AB, half the time it ends up being on Grenz, so a month ago I decided to check if that's really the case or if GW just hates me and always forces me to play on that map.

So I gathered some statistics. Here they are:

One week is missing because I was busy and could hardly gather any data.

"S/G/A", etc, means that I wasn't able to check the map in that time slot, so I filled in as many cells as possible based on the adjacent map. For example, S/G/A stands for Saltspray/Grenz/Ancestral, which were the only three possible maps for that slot because the one next to it is Grenz.

...and here's the calculation for AB dominance:
(10 awesome points to anyone who comes up with a less crappy term!)

Each of the recordings is assigned a value to represent hours the battle line spent in the corresponding faction's territory. For example, Grenz Frontier is +3 hours for Kurzicks. S/G/A is +2 hours for Kurzicks because statistically 2 out of every 3 SGA's would in reality be in Kurzick territory and the third one would be on Saltspray (which has a value of 0). Et cetera. Grey cells (no data) are excluded.

Week 1/Week 2/Week 3 is just a numerical representation of the first three charts. "Hours" is the total number of hours of playtime on each map in 3 weeks, calculated by Value*(Week1+Week2+Week3).

So, yeah... turns out I was right about AB being on Grenz all the time :P

I'm also going to post this on my wiki page (http://wiki.guildwars.com/wiki/User:Alleji) for the convenience of linking it in-game. You can type "/wiki User:Alleji" to bring up the page from GW.

TheodenKing · Mar 30, 2009, 04:24 AM // 04:24

That is quite a bit of data. Kudos to you. But the missing data makes it difficult to draw meaningful conclusions. Also, special events can affect the normal course of the map movement. For example, this weekend the competitive missions were for double faction, so many people that normally AB were in JQ or FA instead.

If you are correct about the map being in Grenz the majority of the time, I guess that could be good for Luxons, since they receive a larger reward for succeeding on that map.

Eragon Zarroc · Mar 30, 2009, 04:49 AM // 04:49

the tables are slightly confusing but the pie chart says it all =D It would be helpful if u could explain what the different shades of color mean and how exactly u are using ur plus system. I'm sure u understand it all and with the pie chart at the end, it becomes obvious that u calculate ab's being in kurzick territory 80% of the time. I'm just more curious about ur exact method of data collection because of the fact that u weren't able to check 24 hours a day. that's where the S/G/A and E/S/G etc. come from i guess? otherwise very awesome

jonnieboi05 · Mar 30, 2009, 05:09 AM // 05:09

very impressive. this is a HUGE amount of data gathered. nice dedication. ^^

tmakinen · Mar 30, 2009, 05:15 AM // 05:15

Now this is pretty convincing, kudos to meticulous observations and clear presentation of findings. I can't see any evidence of systematic diurnal variations but there seems to be a weekly one. Both thrusts into deep Luxon territory happen on Saturday and the rest of the week belongs to Luxons. The big Saturday push is conspicuously absent on the third week, most likely because the latest weekend event (competitive missions) kept all the skilled Kurzicks away from AB and thus the scoreboard for the third week looks quite sad, even more so than the others.

Alleji · Mar 30, 2009, 05:25 AM // 05:25

Quote:

That is quite a bit of data. Kudos to you. But the missing data makes it difficult to draw meaningful conclusions.

This is true, but even if you assume that every single instance of SGA is Saltspray, Kurzicks still end up with over 60%.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eragon Zarroc

the tables are slightly confusing but the pie chart says it all =D It would be helpful if u could explain what the different shades of color mean and how exactly u are using ur plus system.

Different colors are just to make it easier on the eye... luxon maps = red, kurzick maps = blue

"The plus system" is basically the number of hours on each map. Each instance of Luxon map is +3 (hours) luxon and each instance of Kurzick map is +3 Kurzick. Unconfirmed maps vary. As I said, SGA is +2 Kurzick because 2 out of 3 possible maps are Kurzick. GA is +3 Kurzick because regardless of whether it's Grenz or Ancestral, the line is in Kurzick territory. Same for unconfirmed Luxon stuff.

Quote:

I'm just more curious about ur exact method of data collection because of the fact that u weren't able to check 24 hours a day. that's where the S/G/A and E/S/G etc. come from i guess? otherwise very awesome

My method of data collection is talking to the AB NPC in my guild hall and checking what he says once in each 3-hour period. The grey areas are there because I sometimes sleep or go outside. (Although I tried my best to cover them). :P

Zodiac Meteor · Mar 30, 2009, 05:33 AM // 05:33

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alleji

So, yeah... turns out I was right about AB being on Grenz all the time :P

Make a chart where the AB's are being held.

We got the win %, what about the where %?

Alleji · Mar 30, 2009, 05:42 AM // 05:42

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zodiac Meteor

Make a chart where the AB's are being held.

We got the win %, what about the where %?

That's what I was originally going to do, but I ran into the problem of what I would do with all the unconfirmed maps, so I just lumped them into two groups (lux/kurz).

Now that I think about it, I could make a fairly accurate one by counting SGA as 0.33 Saltspray, 0.33 Grenz and 0.33 Ancestral, etc. I'll post that tomorrow.

tmakinen · Mar 30, 2009, 08:13 AM // 08:13

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alleji

Now that I think about it, I could make a fairly accurate one by counting SGA as 0.33 Saltspray, 0.33 Grenz and 0.33 Ancestral, etc.

Unfortunately, that is not correct. Let's consider, e.g., the morning sequence of Thursday the 12th of March. Maps are S, E/S/G, S/G/A and G, respectively. If you divide the play hours of E/S/G and S/G/A as suggested, this would result to 1 hour on E and A and 5 hours on S and G, respectively. However, uncertain maps didn't occur with equal probability as you can see if you list all the possible sequences: S-E-S-G, S-S-S-G, S-S-G-G, S-G-S-G, S-G-G-G and S-G-A-G. E and A occur once in 24 maps and because the sequence represents 12 hours of play, E and A would in average see only half an hour of play each. Thus, the proper way to count S/G/A in this case would be 0.5 Saltspray, 0.33 Grenz and 0.17 Ancestral. Overall, you cannot directly convert uncertain values to some proportions of certain values because that depends on the actual sequence of values. The easiest option would be to show just the certain values. A bit more involved approach would require that you break triply uncertain values into doubles, as in the above example S/G/A -> 0.67 S/G and 0.33 G/A, add those values into existing doubly uncertain values and show them along with the certain data, as in x% in K, y% in K/E, z% in E and so on.

Bobby2 · Mar 30, 2009, 11:43 AM // 11:43

(Metallica - Sad but True)

I commend your efforts. Can't wait to reach r12 Kurz to I can get the hell back to the Red Capes.

Alleji · Mar 30, 2009, 08:41 PM // 20:41

Quote:

Originally Posted by tmakinen

Unfortunately, that is not correct. Let's consider, e.g., the morning sequence of Thursday the 12th of March. Maps are S, E/S/G, S/G/A and G, respectively. If you divide the play hours of E/S/G and S/G/A as suggested, this would result to 1 hour on E and A and 5 hours on S and G, respectively. However, uncertain maps didn't occur with equal probability as you can see if you list all the possible sequences: S-E-S-G, S-S-S-G, S-S-G-G, S-G-S-G, S-G-G-G and S-G-A-G. E and A occur once in 24 maps and because the sequence represents 12 hours of play, E and A would in average see only half an hour of play each. Thus, the proper way to count S/G/A in this case would be 0.5 Saltspray, 0.33 Grenz and 0.17 Ancestral. Overall, you cannot directly convert uncertain values to some proportions of certain values because that depends on the actual sequence of values. The easiest option would be to show just the certain values. A bit more involved approach would require that you break triply uncertain values into doubles, as in the above example S/G/A -> 0.67 S/G and 0.33 G/A, add those values into existing doubly uncertain values and show them along with the certain data, as in x% in K, y% in K/E, z% in E and so on.

Good point. I don't really want to any overly complex analysis, but I don't want to completely throw out all those uncertain cases though. I just broke down a couple more cases to see what they really work out to:

A-AG-SGA-G (Mar 13): AGSG AGGG AGAG AAGG AAAG = 1/10 S, 5/10 G, 4/10 A (0.6, 3.0, and 2.4 hours). If I used my breakdown, that would 1 S, 2.5 G and 2.5 A

G-SGA-SGA-G (Mar 11): GSSG GSGG GGSG GGGG GAGG GGAG GAAG = 4/14 S, 4/14 A, 6/14 G. (1.71, 1.71, and 2.57 hours) My simplified method would yield 2, 2, and 2 hours.

The difference seems to be quite significant, but by completely ignoring all uncertain maps, I would basically be presenting two thirds of the sample as the whole... which also isn't very accurate. I think I'll just make and post both versions - one ignoring unconfirmed maps and second counting SGA as 1 hour each.

Alleji · Mar 31, 2009, 03:13 AM // 03:13

Here are both charts:

Not that much difference, as you can see. The biggest discrepancy is for Saltspray (which gets a huge boost if every instance of SGA is counted as 1 point for saltspray). It's safe to assume that truth lies somewhere in-between the two graphs :P

Lux Aeterna · Apr 02, 2009, 02:06 PM // 14:06

Hmm so I see 21 Ancestrals and 5 Kaanais.

Owned.

Been thinking of going kurzick to give them some help and ping their monks some builds. Also a lot of times when I see their warriors using triple chop etc I'll PM and have a chat about meta war builds....

Interestingly defy pain wars seem to use it for especially pussy reasons (ie i don't want to dieee), and argue back that either (a) builds don't matter or (b) I'm just being mean.

Guess what if it took 12 people to kill you YOU STILL DIED.

MasterSasori · Apr 03, 2009, 05:45 PM // 17:45

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lux Aeterna

Hmm so I see 21 Ancestrals and 5 Kaanais.

Owned.

Been thinking of going kurzick to give them some help and ping their monks some builds. Also a lot of times when I see their warriors using triple chop etc I'll PM and have a chat about meta war builds....

Interestingly defy pain wars seem to use it for especially pussy reasons (ie i don't want to dieee), and argue back that either (a) builds don't matter or (b) I'm just being mean.

Guess what if it took 12 people to kill you YOU STILL DIED.

By all means go ahead.

How is it interesting that DF war use it for pussy reasons? Why else do you think they use this skill?

moriz · Apr 03, 2009, 07:04 PM // 19:04

for shits and giggles perhaps.

though i do recall that a particular top 50 warrior ran it in AB once. instead of taking 12 people to kill him, he killed all 12 people trying to kill him.

Alleji · Apr 04, 2009, 02:42 AM // 02:42

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lux Aeterna

Hmm so I see 21 Ancestrals and 5 Kaanais.

Owned.

Been thinking of going kurzick to give them some help and ping their monks some builds. Also a lot of times when I see their warriors using triple chop etc I'll PM and have a chat about meta war builds....

Interestingly defy pain wars seem to use it for especially pussy reasons (ie i don't want to dieee), and argue back that either (a) builds don't matter or (b) I'm just being mean.

Guess what if it took 12 people to kill you YOU STILL DIED.

If playing as Luxon, you'll naturally see more bad builds on the Kurzick side because that's what you'd be paying attention to. You notice skills used against you more than you notice what's being used by your own team... except when you hear that mending sound at the start of the game :V

Darth The Xx · Apr 04, 2009, 05:24 AM // 05:24

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alleji

If playing as Luxon, you'll naturally see more bad builds on the Kurzick side because that's what you'd be paying attention to. You notice skills used against you more than you notice what's being used by your own team... except when you hear that mending sound at the start of the game :V

Unless you monk often like I do :P Then again when I see that empathy pop up I know ive got nothing to worry about

even so I tend to take note of what my allies use, its always good to know what the people stuck with you are capable of.

glacialphoenix · Apr 05, 2009, 04:28 AM // 04:28

Quote:

Unless you monk often like I do :P Then again when I see that empathy pop up I know ive got nothing to worry about

even so I tend to take note of what my allies use, its always good to know what the people stuck with you are capable of.

Actually, I notice both. It leads to either a lot of laughter or a lot of swearing at my computer. You know, the "...why is that ranger blindbotting me when he could be blindbotting the melee on him instead?" and the "...oh god we have a flarespammer monk on our team".

I don't think it's so much "skills used against you" as "skills you have to make up for". If the enemy build is bad, you notice it because you're having an easy time. If your allies' builds are bad and you keep having to bail them out, you'll probably notice, too.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lux Aeterna

Guess what if it took 12 people to kill you YOU STILL DIED.

Actually... held a shrine with a PUG Defy Pain War because everyone was too busy trying to kill him. We literally had waves of people rushing towards the shrine, trying to kill him, and dying. Free Balth farm! (Yeah, we won that match. When people are dying to give you a free 3 points/kill...)

Darth The Xx · Apr 06, 2009, 04:27 AM // 04:27

Quote:

Originally Posted by glacialphoenix

Actually, I notice both. It leads to either a lot of laughter or a lot of swearing at my computer. You know, the "...why is that ranger blindbotting me when he could be blindbotting the melee on him instead?" and the "...oh god we have a flarespammer monk on our team".

I don't think it's so much "skills used against you" as "skills you have to make up for". If the enemy build is bad, you notice it because you're having an easy time. If your allies' builds are bad and you keep having to bail them out, you'll probably notice, too.

Actually... held a shrine with a PUG Defy Pain War because everyone was too busy trying to kill him. We literally had waves of people rushing towards the shrine, trying to kill him, and dying. Free Balth farm! (Yeah, we won that match. When people are dying to give you a free 3 points/kill...)

Yeah when im not healing im checking what my opponents are using.

Also keeping your team alive in AB is not hard unless you come up vs another team with a monk or you are outnumbered 2:1 or more

glacialphoenix · Apr 06, 2009, 08:43 AM // 08:43

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darth the Xx

Also keeping your team alive in AB is not hard unless you come up vs another team with a monk or you are outnumbered 2:1 or more

That's true. After that you start hoping the other monk will crumble before you do. Another team with a monk ... depending on your own team, it might still not be hard. It's when you're outnumbered that things start getting interesting.