Curse

xxx wraith xxx · Apr 13, 2008, 01:39 PM // 13:39

verry clear guide, even though i had figured a part of this myself too I still think its kewler to think Anet nerfed stuff just because i need some1 to blame. But really good explanation and funny too. Great Guide i'd like to see some more guides bye you about loot and such

Cheers
~Wraith~

Washi · Apr 13, 2008, 03:05 PM // 15:05

Nice explanation although not really exact. Close enough though.
The thing is you can't really compare rolling a die to computer generated "random" draw. This is because computers are unable to generate random numbers. Rolling a die is perfectly random, but computer generating a random number uses an algorithm usually based on strigns. I can't really explain it in english cause it's not my native tongue, but the point is that computer generated random events are NOT independent. That is the biggest flaw.

It's "random enough" for game purposes but still not exactly random.

Masao · Apr 13, 2008, 03:26 PM // 15:26

Quote:

Originally Posted by Washi

Nice explanation although not really exact. Close enough though.
The thing is you can't really compare rolling a die to computer generated "random" draw. This is because computers are unable to generate random numbers. Rolling a die is perfectly random, but computer generating a random number uses an algorithm usually based on strigns. I can't really explain it in english cause it's not my native tongue, but the point is that computer generated random events are NOT independent. That is the biggest flaw.

It's "random enough" for game purposes but still not exactly random.

Of course not, that's why the hypothetical die roll is simply an analogy to an RNG that picks out a box from a loot table.

The die roll is simply easier for people to understand, but I believe you'd be hard pressed to find someone thinks a computer has the ability to mimic the flaw of random chance.

Spiritz · Apr 13, 2008, 04:09 PM // 16:09

Good theories.
Its hard to state why people get bad runs but i look at it this way thru what ive noticed in other places.
Ive been on cantha and into underground city and wiped the afflicted say 50 and yet only had a few drops and gold , i see it theres also something that affects it - you could kill 10 enemy before u get a single drop and a few times a dop on first kill.
We say theres a "formula" for dropping but can there be one that isnt drop rates but "drop chance" also -
eg "smite has 2% chance of an ecto drop" you kill 20 and no ecto but u got say 4 items and 300g - first the server uses drop chance .. then it applies drop rate ... so each smite has a chance to drop item then it works chance for rare drop.

Is it most of the ppl that say about drop rates decreasing etc do just the smite runs , ive noticed u can do same run time and time again say 4 in hr but compared to a 4 man team who kill aatxes ( anything that drops ectos ) will always have more ectos drop ( not refering to loot scaling ).
We kill more in given time than solo but possibly have same amount of items.

We cant do random numbers ourselves mentally - our brain cant do it , dice throwing has many factors , speed/angle/how it hit and so on , a program has less factors to use , just a basic randomize 1 - 10000 and act upon the number.

Div · Apr 13, 2008, 04:15 PM // 16:15

Too bad people in Riverside will still QQ when they get bad runs.

Jay0 · Apr 13, 2008, 07:16 PM // 19:16

very nice thread, informative, funny, and easy to read, my fav things in any thread

A Simple Farmer · Apr 13, 2008, 10:16 PM // 22:16

Nice thread, I can see this being linked to all the 'major loot nerfed' threads.
Next step, can you explain how to use the search feature?

MrSlayer · Apr 13, 2008, 10:55 PM // 22:55

Quote:

Originally Posted by holymasamune

Too bad people in Riverside will still QQ when they get bad runs.

People in Riverside will ALWAYS QQ :P I think we all remember the post complaining about the weekly nerf NOT happening. Ah...good times.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spiritz

Is it most of the ppl that say about drop rates decreasing etc do just the smite runs , ive noticed u can do same run time and time again say 4 in hr but compared to a 4 man team who kill aatxes ( anything that drops ectos ) will always have more ectos drop ( not refering to loot scaling ).
We kill more in given time than solo but possibly have same amount of items.

We cant do random numbers ourselves mentally - our brain cant do it , dice throwing has many factors , speed/angle/how it hit and so on , a program has less factors to use , just a basic randomize 1 - 10000 and act upon the number.

I believe that part of how lootscaling works is what gives you more profit overall with a larger group, but I don't believe that you get a large quantity more ectos with a group. Don't forget; aatxe have a higher %age chance to drop an ecto (or so theory and testing suggests).

I base this on my dual-monk-FoW runs, but I've noticed that (clearing the battlefield), you can get anywhere from 2-8 shards between you. Now in the many, some successful, some unsuccessful, runs I've done in the FoW, the battlefield usually yields 2-8 shards for the group too. Hell, I've cleared it and had nothing, and I've cleared it with a mesmer in the group getting insane numbers of shards (we had a fruitful run; she ended with 17 shards, and a friend of mine ended with 10).

And yes, you're very right. Human minds cannot do random numbers. Or random vegetables. Ask someone to think of a vegetable, and 7/10 people will say "Carrot". But here we go with probability again

Maybe I should just save myself the trouble, and add a paragraph about carrots to my post, and link myself too it?

...well I can't do random numbers, but what the hell am I talking randomly about vegetables for? >.<

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jay0

very nice thread, informative, funny, and easy to read, my fav things in any thread

Quote:

Originally Posted by xxx wraith xxx

verry clear guide, even though i had figured a part of this myself too I still think its kewler to think Anet nerfed stuff just because i need some1 to blame. But really good explanation and funny too. Great Guide i'd like to see some more guides bye you about loot and such Cheers
~Wraith~

Quote:

Originally Posted by A Simple Farmer

Nice thread, I can see this being linked to all the 'major loot nerfed' threads.
Next step, can you explain how to use the search feature?

Thanks for the positive feedback guys! It's really good to know that this thread is providing thought-provoking and smile-invoking stuff. Wraith...if I see a subject on loot that I think I could help people understand, expect something written

. I aim to please. And Simple Farmer, sorry, but it's a law on the internet. Never look beyond the end of your mouse pointer. It's always easier to waste a few seconds on a grammatically-incorrect post than it is to use the search function. Infact be glad I didn't just burn you on the spot for heresy

.

Seriously though guys, thanks for all the positive feedback

anshin · Apr 13, 2008, 11:47 PM // 23:47

Your topic deserves 5 stars. Trying to explain probabilities is hard, specially to the gaming society.

Let me add just a bit of my knowledge. You're right, having a probability of 2 out of 100 does not mean we will get 2 out of 100, it means that depending on our number of tries at getting something, the actual getting it will average to that number. For example, even if you don't get 2 drops in 100 tries, probability dictates that in 1000 tries you'll have 20 drops, in 10000 tries you'll get 200 drops. In the same manner, if you get 50 ectos in 100 kills/runs/tries you will probably not have the same drop in the next 2400 tries (2500-the previous 100= 2:100 ratio).

My knowledge sucks. This just to say that luck is luck. Everything tends to an average, there are no exact probabilities, you'd need infinite time to achieve those.

And btw, we are capable of generating random numbers. 57298572, this was a random number that i created by placing my fingers on the numbers and typing >randomly<.

In my opinion, ofcourse. I'll be happy if someone disagrees.

Talarian · Apr 14, 2008, 12:26 AM // 00:26

Quote:

Originally Posted by anshin

And btw, we are capable of generating random numbers. 57298572, this was a random number that i created by placing my fingers on the numbers and typing >randomly<.

Ah but how do you know it was random? Can you be sure your subconscious didn't guide your fingers? I think the point was that you can't think of a random number, there will always be a reason why you thought of that number and someone who knows you well enough and how to read people properly (like Derren Brown if anyone knows who that is) will always be able to tell you what number you are thinking of. For example, think of a two digit number where both digits are odd and are not the same. Chances are you are thinking of 37. Even though you could have thought of 13, 15, 17, 19, etc...

Spiritz · Apr 14, 2008, 02:45 AM // 02:45

now we expand to quantum game mechanics for smite drops lol.
seriously tho i think its one of those areas no1 will be able to answer , i doubt even anet can know the answer as you cant predict randomness can you so a random generator cant be predicted upon.
5* topic

Btw aatxes are 4% drop rate - but as most tend to solo run and get smites that can explain low drops - 2% run vs 2% & 4% chances .. anyone know the other ecto dropper drop rates - dryders/charged blackness/spectres ?

hurdlebeast · Apr 14, 2008, 02:55 AM // 02:55

thank you very much for putting this out there, lol there have been many days when "luck" has been on my side and i'll get good gold/green drops...and other days when i get nothing but whites and blues.

the die scenario explains it very nicely, hope this clears things up for some whiners...er....i mean players...out there.

anshin · Apr 14, 2008, 11:37 AM // 11:37

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spiritz

now we expand to quantum game mechanics for smite drops lol.
seriously tho i think its one of those areas no1 will be able to answer , i doubt even anet can know the answer as you cant predict randomness can you so a random generator cant be predicted upon.
5* topic

Btw aatxes are 4% drop rate - but as most tend to solo run and get smites that can explain low drops - 2% run vs 2% & 4% chances .. anyone know the other ecto dropper drop rates - dryders/charged blackness/spectres ?

Quantum mechanics ftw.

Last time i checked the Ecto drop rate discussion page on wiki it was Aatxes at 4%, Smites at ~2% and the rest at ~1~2%.

@Talarian: I know it was random because its not a phone number, IRS, adress, the Lost number, not even past grades. I wasn't looking at the keyboard when i typed it. I see your point, but honestly, i rather believe i can lose control when i want than losing control when my backside wants.

Maverick2201 · Apr 14, 2008, 01:47 PM // 13:47

Explanations like this make logical sense but they are completely arbitrary in that, ANet has not completely explained the inner mechanics of their drop rate system. We just simply don't know how it works. We can only observe the results.

Explanations like this do not account for the seemingly much better drop rate when a character first starts farming an area to when they've run it many many times. People who farm have likely run a particular area many many times - enough that they can get a halfway decent statistical sample. It is clear to many players that the chances of something valuable dropping in a specific area drops over times farmed. I believe any farmer out there will tell you that whatever area he/she frequents drops far less "good stuff" than when they first started there.

They will also tell you that if you go farm somewhere else for a while, it almost "resets" your drop rate in the original area. Coincidental? Maybe... it used to be purely coincidental that people who smoked got lung and/or throat cancer... as scientists started to understand the chemistry of what was going on, they realized it wasn't so coincidental...

quentin · Apr 14, 2008, 02:08 PM // 14:08

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maverick2201

Explanations like this make logical sense but they are completely arbitrary in that, ANet has not completely explained the inner mechanics of their drop rate system. We just simply don't know how it works. We can only observe the results.

Explanations like this do not account for the seemingly much better drop rate when a character first starts farming an area to when they've run it many many times. People who farm have likely run a particular area many many times - enough that they can get a halfway decent statistical sample. It is clear to many players that the chances of something valuable dropping in a specific area drops over times farmed. I believe any farmer out there will tell you that whatever area he/she frequents drops far less "good stuff" than when they first started there.

They will also tell you that if you go farm somewhere else for a while, it almost "resets" your drop rate in the original area. Coincidental? Maybe... it used to be purely coincidental that people who smoked got lung and/or throat cancer... as scientists started to understand the chemistry of what was going on, they realized it wasn't so coincidental...

I think that every GW player agrees on one thing : drops in an area decrease the more you farm that area.

The OP only believes the drops follow a random numbers algorithm. I am entitled to believe they don't, so... "screens (of actual GW code) or it never happened"

MrSlayer · Apr 14, 2008, 02:15 PM // 14:15

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maverick2201

Explanations like this make logical sense but they are completely arbitrary in that, ANet has not completely explained the inner mechanics of their drop rate system. We just simply don't know how it works. We can only observe the results.

Explanations like this do not account for the seemingly much better drop rate when a character first starts farming an area to when they've run it many many times. People who farm have likely run a particular area many many times - enough that they can get a halfway decent statistical sample. It is clear to many players that the chances of something valuable dropping in a specific area drops over times farmed. I believe any farmer out there will tell you that whatever area he/she frequents drops far less "good stuff" than when they first started there.

They will also tell you that if you go farm somewhere else for a while, it almost "resets" your drop rate in the original area. Coincidental? Maybe... it used to be purely coincidental that people who smoked got lung and/or throat cancer... as scientists started to understand the chemistry of what was going on, they realized it wasn't so coincidental...

You have raised a good point...I'm not sure about the comparison to first starting to farm an area vs long term, but again, I have my theories here.

Alot of this is down to the mind. You always seem to have better runs when you start something new, because it's not a run you've done before; it's new and exciting, and then when you get used too it, and you've maybe had a really good run or two, you start to get very "ugg where's my XX YY drops?!". I can even provide an example (my friends and I farm way too much). My friend did Raptor farming for 5 straight days. He got event items etc over the weekend, 2 days of crap all, and then on the 5th day, he gets 2 Ele swords, a black dye and an elite assassin tome. Not in the same run, obviously. But you know...

I have never noticed a huge decline in the quality of my drops over time with the UW farm. I can back this up with my own "proof". I have 2 Warriors...an old, really ugly and frankly unplayed one. She used to do W/Rt, until I decided I wanted to roll a new Warrior and give the actual class a try. So I roll, maxed, got the W/Rt and W/Me build sorted, and bam, started UW farming. My average income has been the same, and I occasionally switch to my old warrior to see if the lack of use will get me a good run or two. It never has. This doesn't really qualify as testing, but it showed me a general trend.

And yeah...I now have 2 Warriors which are only used for Farming. The new one is just prettier and better equipped

. GG me.

Now, to be fair, I'll just take a quick look at what I know about the other side of this argument. Anet have always denied the existence of "anti-farm code" (as players called it). They told us that they had a form of loot-reduction in place to prevent botters from earning large amounts of cash; they didn't consider it anti-farm code, so they denied it's existence, calling it anti-bot code. An argument over silly words. Not their smartest move, in my opinion.

Anyway, with the introduction of HM, and more importantly, Loot Scaling, they told us out-right that they had removed any form of anti-bot coding, because it was now almost as profitable to play in groups as it was to solo farm, and thus the code wasn't really needed. There hasn't been any confirmed mention of a still-existing loot-reduction code (other than Loot Scaling) to my knowledge, so I'm going to assume it's just human nature, you noticing (from more farms) a lack of good items over a long period of time, and other things.

A good example to back up my opinion here is the Vaettir farm. I've done loads of runs on my Ele. I'll occasionally have poopy runs, where all I get is Mesmer tomes, r13 domination purples, and Vaettir droppings. But overall, my average (from, example, 40 runs with 60 golds total, mostly in runs where I get 3-5 golds) drop rate of golds and glacial stones is pretty high.

I hope this helps.

Spiritz · Apr 14, 2008, 02:31 PM // 14:31

The "over farmed" is what i was hinting towards - the solo smite farmers would hit Uw x times per hr and uw teams hit Uw once ( if clearout say 4hrs ) and only do say 1 Uw run a day.

The anti bot thing im told by "long term" players also affected normal players - eg 55 monk Gates of kryta farming for ages would eventually get a message on the screen as the server would regard their actions as a "bot".
But last person i knew that had this said that was over a year ago and they`ve never had it since.

This "drop rate " question is going to end up being like "does god exist?"
If you havn`t seen god then how do you know he exists and so on lol.
I think this topic will be around for a long time

Slabby · Apr 14, 2008, 02:40 PM // 14:40

N/o but all what I've read in this topic is basic math.

gw_poster · Apr 14, 2008, 02:42 PM // 14:42

Nice explanation of your hypothesis, Slayer.. always a good thing to have a thought-provoking thread that generates some interesting discussion.

Your friend who farmed Raptors for five days straight kind of sums up the whole average of rare drops hypothesis in that had he/she given up on the fourth day, he/she would have forever cursed the Raptor run and (possibly) have claimed Anet nerfed it! But, he/she hung in there for that extra day, increasing the number of runs and thus, the possibility of rare drops/dye, etc, which I'm sure restored some faith in the run.

Personally, I run UW 600/smite at least 1 or 2 runs (on average) per day. I'm in HM and with Dunk so I'm not sure if I get better drops or more because I never see what Dunk gets. I clear all aataxes in the chamber, toward the village and elsewhere, all of the smites in Ice Wastes, and average about 1 ecto every 3 runs. Good? I don't know, but I'm happy with that as it pays for itself, its fun and I get lockpicks, tomes, golds to id, chests, and the occassional rare gold. Once, two ecto dropped for me in a group of 3 aataxes, so I guess that day the die were rolling in my favor!

My main point, however goes a bit further into the psychological aspect of a "good run" that you eluded to in your OP. When I start a run with an ecto drop, that run invariably seems to lead to more ecto, better (and more) golds, and a couple of chests. Coincidence? Probably. But, isn't it sexier to think that Skinny Corpse is onto something with the 'the drop rate of your run is determined at the time of zone-in' arguement? If you could consistently zone on a pre-determined "good" drop time, a fortune could be made! I know it's mathematically possible to have this happen anyway, but the chance is so infintesimally (sp?) small, that you are better off playing the lottery and hoping to get hit by lightning at the same time that they read your winning number on the tele..but anyway.

My two cents, ty for reading such nonsense.

MrSlayer · Apr 14, 2008, 05:00 PM // 17:00

Quote:

Originally Posted by gw_poster

Nice explanation of your hypothesis, Slayer.. always a good thing to have a thought-provoking thread that generates some interesting discussion.

Your friend who farmed Raptors for five days straight kind of sums up the whole average of rare drops hypothesis in that had he/she given up on the fourth day, he/she would have forever cursed the Raptor run and (possibly) have claimed Anet nerfed it! But, he/she hung in there for that extra day, increasing the number of runs and thus, the possibility of rare drops/dye, etc, which I'm sure restored some faith in the run.

Personally, I run UW 600/smite at least 1 or 2 runs (on average) per day. I'm in HM and with Dunk so I'm not sure if I get better drops or more because I never see what Dunk gets. I clear all aataxes in the chamber, toward the village and elsewhere, all of the smites in Ice Wastes, and average about 1 ecto every 3 runs. Good? I don't know, but I'm happy with that as it pays for itself, its fun and I get lockpicks, tomes, golds to id, chests, and the occassional rare gold. Once, two ecto dropped for me in a group of 3 aataxes, so I guess that day the die were rolling in my favor!

My main point, however goes a bit further into the psychological aspect of a "good run" that you eluded to in your OP. When I start a run with an ecto drop, that run invariably seems to lead to more ecto, better (and more) golds, and a couple of chests. Coincidence? Probably. But, isn't it sexier to think that Skinny Corpse is onto something with the 'the drop rate of your run is determined at the time of zone-in' arguement? If you could consistently zone on a pre-determined "good" drop time, a fortune could be made! I know it's mathematically possible to have this happen anyway, but the chance is so infintesimally (sp?) small, that you are better off playing the lottery and hoping to get hit by lightning at the same time that they read your winning number on the tele..but anyway.

My two cents, ty for reading such nonsense.

This is actually something I've been considering myself. What if the discoveries made in Skinny Corpse and his/her brother's work is actually 100% true, which I believe is the case?

Warning; this next part is TOTALLY theoretical, quite wild, and involves a cookie-based craft of some sort.
Since we have already decided that it is impossible for a computer to generate a totally random number, you'd have to assume the "roll" for a zone's drops come from something that is constantly changing, to mix it up a little. The time would seem to be a logical thing to use, and more importantly, the seconds. It is very unlikely that 2 people will enter a zone at the same second, minute, hour etc. And if they do, it's likely that they'll never interact to know that they both recieved the same loot. It wouldn't be a simple algorithm to work it out, or people would have noticed better runs during X - Y hours/minutes/seconds each day. So what if it bases it off time (including seconds), date, perhaps district number? and maybe another hidden area. I know there would be no way to prove or disprove this, but I have been considering it for a while. It's a random and wild theory, but you mentioned a possibility of something similar in your post, and madness isn't really madness if 2 people can believe it's true. Unless we're both an identical form of mad, in which case we rock; let's go make mad babies and plot world domination from the back of our cookie-ship.

I like what you said about the Raptors too. It is entirely true that he would have cursed the run. Not only that, but I've kept going since then also, because so far everyone I've introduced this farm too has got 1-2 ele swords. So I've kept going, spurred on each time because of them, hoping that *eventually* it'll be my lucky run. So yes, I guess a large part of this "bad-run theorem" is psychological.

All around, a very thought-invoking response. Good to know I've sparked some discussions.

And thanks to everyone who has posted. No flames is good, and even those who disagree, your feedback is definitely appreciated.

Quote:

Originally Posted by slabby

N/o but all what I've read in this topic is basic math.

None taken. I never claimed this would be complex. I just felt that I could possibly help others to spot the difference between a nerf and just bad luck, and also present my ideas on this matter to the community for commenting and stuff. It is just basic mathematics, but that's not the point of this thread; the point is that I've used the Mathematics to help try and clear up a common misconception. Or at least I've tried too