Curse

pug_ster · Jul 07, 2006, 05:02 PM // 17:02

I did get that warning once when I killed Milthuran too many times when i noticed that i don't get any drops at all, even from the outcast guys. Ever since then, I just go to different places to farm after staying there 4-5 times.

Skyy Forn · Jul 07, 2006, 06:17 PM // 18:17

I think the problem people are seeing that each person only sees there own drops. Human beings are HORRIBLE at being intuative about probaility and statistics.

Here's an example: if an item has a 5% drop rate, you expect that after 20 kills you see one drop right? Wrong. After 20 kills, you still have a 35% chance of NOT getting the drop (0.95^20 = 0.35). That means that over 1/3 of the people will not see the drop after 20 kills, despite that most people intuatively think 5% drop rate = 20 kills. It's about the same for a 10% drop and 10 kills (34%) and a 20% drop and 5 kills (32%). Add on top of that the net factor: the people who got 2 drops in a row aren't complaining about it on the internet. You often only hear from those who have been bitten.

Sure, over 1000 kills, and you will most likely see 50 drops, but some people will still get 40, and some will get 60. Some unlucky sod will not get any. it doesn't take millions of people doing it for that one person to occur, but its just less likely.

I am not denying that Anet prob has some code to prevent farming. But its hard to isolate it when people are often overracting.