Curse

MrSlayer · Feb 07, 2007, 10:31 AM // 10:31

Yeah guys you need to remember. Just because there is a 2% chance doesn't mean it will always happen 2/100 smites. Imagine a dice...you might roll a 6 200 times in a row even though there is only a 1/6 chance of doing so, per roll.

And I wasn't talking about your Maths...the people above you who seem to think that 2% means anything between 0.00-etc-1 to 2 percent...which is total crap.

I sent a thingy to Anet about the ecto price. It is getting ridiculous. Since most of the UW solo builds have been nerfed in some way, its very hard to solo. Most common groups now seem to be famine/55 which is still quite hard since the AV/SV nerfs, or 2-3 trappers (which is slow still).

Think on it...the drop rate for ectos is still 2% for the team groups, so on average you should in theory get the same number between the two of you. But then ecto drops are so rare that the price just keeps rising; most people see no need to go the UW, which you can see from just 5 minutes in ToA. You see most people forming chest-run groups for FoW, or quest-groups for FoW, or just generally killing stuff in the FoW.

shadowblade520 · Feb 07, 2007, 02:12 PM // 14:12

It is going up because people are giving up on farming ecto because of the nerf to sv, buff to rend and what seems to be an increase in the number of DN, but anyway, supply is running short, the demand is probably about the same, so we get a price increase, which isn't bad for us : D. I sold about 40 ecto at 9.5k a few days ago

Suxipo · Feb 07, 2007, 05:15 PM // 17:15

this build is still quite good. Only the drop rate is horrrible. 2 ectos in 11 runs is ridiculous.

Amalek · Feb 07, 2007, 05:25 PM // 17:25

I just recently started doing both this and a VwK rit in UW, and both are suprisingly easy. Why are people giving up on solo farming? This is both post-SV/AV and rend updates as well.

Xxalon Tacotu · Feb 07, 2007, 08:25 PM // 20:25

I've not yet started running UW with this build (starting tonight). But to those of you who are bitching about "wasting" 6 or even 12k on UW runs, consider this......

I spent 45k on entrance fees alone (on top of the armour/weapon costs) to practise soloing UW with my nec. I have since had a lot of zero ecto runs (even went 7 hours straight over 3 days without a single ecto)

However, I recently sold the ecto that I made in about 7 weeks for just short of 900k. Not bad, and that initial "cost" was well worth it.

Once you have practised a good 50 or so runs, you will have developed your own style, and your own timing for runs/casts/etc..

I now survive most "Rend Enchantments" even on a 55 nec build, and although this build can't kill Aatxes (they have a good ecto drop rate), I am willing to spend a few hours and a few thousand gold pieces to try it.

If you stop worrying and try to enjoy it, you'll find it easier.

So thank you to Koning fot posting the build, and thanks to everyone else for the tweaks, and I'll see you at ToA.

aB- · Feb 07, 2007, 11:01 PM // 23:01

Ok, I might be WAY off on this whole drop rate math, but

.98^40 = .445 chance of no ectos on a complete smite run. Or
1-(.98^40) = .555 chance of at least 1 ecto on a complete smite run.

I don't know if this is right or not, but thinking about it logically how can you say that there is a 100% chance of getting 2 ectos after killing 100 smites? Because that's what you get when doing the math as

n=.02X
n=.02(100)
n=2

Where n = number of ectos and X = number of killed smites.

Quote:

As for the '20 runs is not enough to see':
I did 4 more runs after that initial 20 and got 1 more ecto.

Sorry, but in order to see any statistical accuracy, hundreds of runs would have to take place. It's like surveying 24 people in a town and drawing conclusions based on that. And even with more tests it can be hard to say because of the many other factors in the game that we the players do not know about.

MrSlayer · Feb 07, 2007, 11:29 PM // 23:29

God dam...the fact we are calculating drop percentages truly shows we are geeks.

Get this...someone told me there is a world outside the internet! Hah...bet they were lying :P

disarm76 · Feb 08, 2007, 12:52 AM // 00:52

Quote:

Originally Posted by aB-

Sorry, but in order to see any statistical accuracy, hundreds of runs would have to take place. It's like surveying 24 people in a town and drawing conclusions based on that. And even with more tests it can be hard to say because of the many other factors in the game that we the players do not know about.

I didn't meant that, what I meant is ectos should be more or less distributed not, 8 in the first 24 runs and then suddenly 20 on the other 24 next. there should be an more or less coherency.

shadowblade520 · Feb 08, 2007, 01:34 AM // 01:34

Quote:

Originally Posted by aB-

Ok, I might be WAY off on this whole drop rate math, but

.98^40 = .445 chance of no ectos on a complete smite run. Or
1-(.98^40) = .555 chance of at least 1 ecto on a complete smite run.

I don't know if this is right or not, but thinking about it logically how can you say that there is a 100% chance of getting 2 ectos after killing 100 smites? Because that's what you get when doing the math as

n=.02X
n=.02(100)
n=2

Where n = number of ectos and X = number of killed smites.

Sorry, but in order to see any statistical accuracy, hundreds of runs would have to take place. It's like surveying 24 people in a town and drawing conclusions based on that. And even with more tests it can be hard to say because of the many other factors in the game that we the players do not know about.

well to begin, it isn't 1-(.98^40) it is (1-.98)^40. The next part is that it doesn't provide anything meaningful all that means is that there is a 1.1*10^-68 chance of every smite dropping ecto. Again what you are calculating is an expected value, So after killing 100 smites, you SHOULD get 2 ecto's but that isn't always the case, you could go either way. And you're right about your last paragraph, you can't make conclusions based on 1,2 or even 30 runs.

Freneticweasel · Feb 08, 2007, 08:02 AM // 08:02

Hmm I seem to be having trouble in pulling the Darknesses without getting the Aatexes with them. Any tips?

Arwen Granger · Feb 08, 2007, 10:25 AM // 10:25

Quote:

Originally Posted by Freneticweasel

Hmm I seem to be having trouble in pulling the Darknesses without getting the Aatexes with them. Any tips?

Before you aggro, put on storm djinn haste. The aatexes will break aggro once you run back to the middle altar while the grasps won't.

Bloodied Blade · Feb 08, 2007, 02:22 PM // 14:22

What Arwen said...need to aggro them under the speed increase otherwise the aataxes have a decent chance to catch you. If you have to, hide behind Benton while fighting grasps (to avoid aataxe from a bad pull). It's not really that hard even if the aataxe doesn't aggro dump to its own mob again (which it won't)... Just run around it to aggro, you'll be fine.

Koning · Feb 08, 2007, 06:53 PM // 18:53

For those who believe they can't run this build post skill balance, and for those who like the music

, i've made a small new video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QKtmzM9LcFQ

drumer1029 · Feb 08, 2007, 09:44 PM // 21:44

I agree, this run is still possible, and yes the drop rate has been cut down.

But to those of you who are complaining about ecto prices, way back in the day 12k per ecto was cheap, and as more and more builds came out to farm them, they dropped. So now that it is harder to farm they will go up.

I say, good. Let them go up, I'll farm more and make a bigger profit from it.

Xxalon Tacotu · Feb 09, 2007, 12:22 AM // 00:22

Well. I spent 15k "practising" this build today (using both Koning's build and the one with Glypgh of Conc.)

Found the Glyph build to work better for me so far, and with my 15k spent, I dropped 5 ecto.

I make that around a 30k profit on the first couple of hours.

Good job Koning.

BTW. What are you attributes post-update ??? Are they still the same (7 second Visage) or have you changed them around any ??

Thanks again for posting this superb build & guide

shadowblade520 · Feb 09, 2007, 03:01 AM // 03:01

I think he may have changed it where you have 5+1 in energy Storage so you can get 9 in illusion (8 second sv) and 3+1 in air. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Droven · Feb 09, 2007, 07:27 AM // 07:27

You don't need to change anything, the same build works as it was. And if you are having problems with killing the graspings take a hero with you. I sometimes take Zhed with me with the same build so he can AV him or me and give damage to graspings (except Djinn take Ward or sth healing/defencive). Or you can take Norgu, take both AV/SV and high fast casting so you can spam it on yourself. After killing the graspings just leave the hero there and go the smites. I got 3 ectos in 1 run yesterday ^^ and graspings took like 3 mins to kill all. The only thing splits is money when u get to the smites. Sure the graspings loot works as the same way when you are with the henchmen. But saying again with a bit studying the build you can kill the graspings easily yourself.

Btw, if the 2% is true, it doesn't mean you'll get 2 ectos by killing 100 smites. That means you have 2% chance that everytime you kill a smite you can get an ecto. As i told you above in 1 run i got 3 ectos, but 2 days before i got only 2 ectos in ~15 runs.

TurinPT · Feb 09, 2007, 06:54 PM // 18:54

Koning I saw your video, how do make your char to do that "falling back" animation whenever you get interrupted? this would help alot since the squids can take up to 5 seconds to use it upon reaching me.

about those with agro problems, i have the same. The groups on both sides are easy but the one patroling the middle is harder, they have about the same chance of breaking agro as the aatxes so its a bit tricky to get them and not the cows.

FG2_Eli · Feb 09, 2007, 09:55 PM // 21:55

Quote:

Originally Posted by TurinPT

how do make your char to do that "falling back" animation whenever you get interrupted?

he attacked them - when u are interrupted while attacking (or using a skill) your character will do that animation ^^

Messy · Feb 09, 2007, 10:03 PM // 22:03

Quote:

Originally Posted by TurinPT

about those with agro problems, i have the same. The groups on both sides are easy but the one patroling the middle is harder, they have about the same chance of breaking agro as the aatxes so its a bit tricky to get them and not the cows.

That middle patrol seems to like the west staircase (left hand one). If you try pulling them on the right hand side stairs, they tend to run back. I hope this helps.

A few things I've noticed help me:

1.- Try and pop the nightmares. Activate storm djinn haste, wait until it's half recharged, and run around the Inner rim. If it gets shattered you will have time to reactivate.

2.- Do the same up both staircases, more nightmares might pop.

3. KILL the nightmares with Earthquake. It might add a few minutes to the run but it makes it much safer.

4.- With graspins I do use a 20/20 +20 enchant earth staff. Works fine. IF you get interrupted, don't panic. If you get dazed, don't panic, it can be survived most of the times. Wait until daze wears off, and hit SV, and then go for the kill.

5.- With smites, I use a totem axe and a shield +10 earth, no HSR or HCT. What I have noticed, and I really do not know why, is that once I have them all nicely packed pounding on me, I hit SV and IF I only wait like 3 sec before I chain Sandstorm, EQ and AS they will not scatter. IF I wait for SV to completely drain their energy, and start my chain dmg once SV is wearing off, they run like chicken's w/o heads. So after I hit SV I start my damage chain as SV's recharge is hitting 2-3PM, 3PM being 1/4 of recharge.