Curse

Ignia Venturi · Jan 08, 2012, 10:41 PM // 22:41

I was wondering if you all could share some insight about where you think the prices of different categories of weapons are going. I would think anything that doesn't drop anymore (r7s, ect) will only become more and more valuable. But what about stuff like inscriptable crystallines? They still drop so there will continue to be more available in the game. Do you think the price of weapons like these will go down, up, or stay relatively constant? What about minipets? I try to sell mine when I get them since they usually drop in price allowing me to buy them back later for cheaper.

There's nothing worse than buying something for 100e and then only being able to sell it for 20e a year or two later. So what do you guys think....

superraptors · Jan 09, 2012, 12:09 AM // 00:09

limited items -> increase over time
unlimited items -> decrease over time

Masacru Ak · Jan 09, 2012, 12:34 AM // 00:34

Well the price for Crystalline will remain the same ( almost the same ) and yes they drop from HA chest ( of course if you win is chance to get one from that chest) . That is the only place to get one Crystalline Insc. Others Crystalline swords they drop from Sorow Furnace but Purple version only oldschool. As for Q7-Q8 Weapons gold not so easy to get and the prices for those will go higher , depends wich skin is . As long the skin is more rare they price is bigger.

Swingline · Jan 09, 2012, 09:28 AM // 09:28

Quote:

Originally Posted by Masacru Ak

Well the price for Crystalline will remain the same ( almost the same ) and yes they drop from HA chest ( of course if you win is chance to get one from that chest) . That is the only place to get one Crystalline Insc. Others Crystalline swords they drop from Sorow Furnace but Purple version only oldschool. As for Q7-Q8 Weapons gold not so easy to get and the prices for those will go higher , depends wich skin is . As long the skin is more rare they price is bigger.

If I am not mistaken Insc Crystallines drop from the Z chest.

Olle · Jan 09, 2012, 09:55 AM // 09:55

Quote:

Originally Posted by Masacru Ak

Well the price for Crystalline will remain the same ( almost the same ) and yes they drop from HA chest ( of course if you win is chance to get one from that chest) . That is the only place to get one Crystalline Insc. Others Crystalline swords they drop from Sorow Furnace but Purple version only oldschool. As for Q7-Q8 Weapons gold not so easy to get and the prices for those will go higher , depends wich skin is . As long the skin is more rare they price is bigger.

The crystallines are in fact dropping, the past 3-4 months people has started to really lowball the q10+, but the q9 still remains at 300e+

As Superraptors said

"limited items -> increase over time
unlimited items -> decrease over time "

Swingline · Jan 09, 2012, 10:13 AM // 10:13

Quote:

Originally Posted by Olle

"limited items -> increase over time"

Until people stop buying them because the price is too high.

Zylo16 · Jan 11, 2012, 01:58 AM // 01:58

There will always be a market for limited items as long as there are people sitting on so much money that they don't know what to do with except buy expensive items and people who want to earn enough money to be like them.

jimbo32 · Jan 11, 2012, 05:10 AM // 05:10

Quote:

Originally Posted by superraptors

limited items -> increase over time
unlimited items -> decrease over time

This theory assumes that demand remains constant, which is not necessarily the case. Regardless of how rare something is, there has to be an audience for it. I'd say that the demand for certain things that no longer drop (q7's, q8's, prenerfs, etc) has actually gone down over the past few years as collectors interested in such things have gradually retired from GW or completed their collections.

peter81 · Jan 11, 2012, 09:16 AM // 09:16

Quote:

Originally Posted by superraptors

limited items -> increase over time
unlimited items -> decrease over time

I disagree. Few months ago i sold my ded Ghostly Hero for 900e. This was the market price at the time.
Now i cant buy ded Ghostly for 1400e - and they still dropping from HoH chest, right ?

CE Devilman · Jan 11, 2012, 06:24 PM // 18:24

Anet: oh its a nice skin..lets use it in WoC..bamm

carnage-runner · Jan 11, 2012, 07:48 PM // 19:48

Demand drives prices... Nothing else. Rarity is virtually irrelevant at this point. While it still helps, it holds no footing on price fluctuation like demand.

Shields still drop with mods that are being sold for 100's of ecto.

Demand is the only factor that matters any more in my opinion. Just an opinion.

Surge goes pre · Jan 11, 2012, 08:52 PM // 20:52

I agree, demand drives the market. Look at voltaic spears or bone dragon staffs, they are not rare at all, in fact I'd call them common, and they cost a lot more than rarer things.

Also maybe this one is just me, but I don't think a +10 demons shield is any rarer than say +10 vs plants, but they cost 10 fold.

carnage-runner · Jan 11, 2012, 08:57 PM // 20:57

They are "rarer" because such a large volume of them have been bought up. Horded. Or purchased with the intention of using them. Regardless... Not as many people do bogs sc's where plant shields have a use for a few minutes, but everyone and their dog has a Doa shield nowadays... Hell, even I do :S

Point being... DoA generates money, DoA sc'ers want Doa shields. So they are "rarer" because a lot of people are constantly looking for them.
in my opinion..

superraptors · Jan 11, 2012, 09:49 PM // 21:49

Quote:

Originally Posted by peter81

I disagree. Few months ago i sold my ded Ghostly Hero for 900e. This was the market price at the time.
Now i cant buy ded Ghostly for 1400e - and they still dropping from HoH chest, right ?

halls has been half dead for over 3 years

Horace Slughorn · Jan 11, 2012, 10:49 PM // 22:49

Quote:

Originally Posted by superraptors

limited items -> increase over time
unlimited items -> decrease over time

This is the case in general but sometimes there are other complicating factors that invalidate this rule. For example, the el ghostly hero and rift warden mini have both risen in price despite being "unlimited".

superraptors · Jan 12, 2012, 12:53 AM // 00:53

you don't need to go into specifics this generally the majority of the items out there.

Martin Alvito · Jan 12, 2012, 07:47 AM // 07:47

Quote:

Originally Posted by carnage-runner

Demand drives prices... Nothing else. Rarity is virtually irrelevant at this point. While it still helps, it holds no footing on price fluctuation like demand.

It would be silly to expect something that doesn't meaningfully vary (such as item rarity) to explain price variation.

That said, don't forget that demand is comprised of the willingness and ability of individuals to pay. Willingness can be further subdivided into players' willingness to pay for intrinsic value (to have the shiny to look at and show off) and willingness to pay because they believe the price will appreciate in the future. The former doesn't vary much since new items are not being introduced; the latter does vary quite a bit.

The result is that what's really driving the higher end markets is players' beliefs about future item prices and changes in wealth distribution amongst players. Do notice that the latter is meaningfully affected whenever a few players discover a way to rake in large quantities of armbraces, zkeys, ecto or plat.

Essence Snow · Jan 12, 2012, 12:17 PM // 12:17

Quote:

Originally Posted by carnage-runner

They are "rarer" because such a large volume of them have been bought up. Horded. Or purchased with the intention of using them. Regardless... Not as many people do bogs sc's where plant shields have a use for a few minutes, but everyone and their dog has a Doa shield nowadays... Hell, even I do :S

Point being... DoA generates money, DoA sc'ers want Doa shields. So they are "rarer" because a lot of people are constantly looking for them.
in my opinion..

Wasn't it confrimed that non-inscribable shields do not stack armor? Thus making the +10 vs demons not really +10?

Swingline · Jan 12, 2012, 03:04 PM // 15:04

Quote:

Originally Posted by Essence Snow

Wasn't it confrimed that non-inscribable shields do not stack armor? Thus making the +10 vs demons not really +10?

Yes you are correct. This happens when the armor cap is reached with skills other than IAU(it breaks the armor cap). This is important when running a terra SF build. Since trenchway doesn't use armor boosting skills other than IAU the demon shields are useful.

Plant shields on the other hand are not so useful. Most SF tanks I see in urgoz use armor of earth.

carnage-runner · Jan 12, 2012, 06:12 PM // 18:12

Quote:

Originally Posted by Martin Alvito

It would be silly to expect something that doesn't meaningfully vary (such as item rarity) to explain price variation.

That said, don't forget that demand is comprised of the willingness and ability of individuals to pay. Willingness can be further subdivided into players' willingness to pay for intrinsic value (to have the shiny to look at and show off) and willingness to pay because they believe the price will appreciate in the future. The former doesn't vary much since new items are not being introduced; the latter does vary quite a bit.

The result is that what's really driving the higher end markets is players' beliefs about future item prices and changes in wealth distribution amongst players. Do notice that the latter is meaningfully affected whenever a few players discover a way to rake in large quantities of armbraces, zkeys, ecto or plat.

This has been discussed ad nauseum. (the reason things are expensive that is...)

Rarity comes into play in many instances; particularly with regard to skin desirability and as a result it's availability. Also, new items are being added quite regularly. Many weapons being bought for large quantities of ecto are items that theoretically can still drop, and in several cases actually have dropped recently. I have seen several rare shields and staves drop in the last few years, and I'm sure many others who play far more have seen considerably more than I have.

On the topic of player wealth distribution. There is no farm/exploit in the game that can meaningfully affect the difference between someone who has immense wealth. When you start talking about wealth in the 1000's of ecto, ok sure.. you can farm that and make more... But 1000's of armbraces or more. Well things like "wealth" at that point become almost arbitrary figures. I would however say that wealth accumulation in GW has, as a whole, increased across the board. (naturally in an economy that is not fixed) The more people bidding/buying the higher the prices. I don't think it's so much an argument of "future value" as it's current desirability and players with expendable income who want certain items.

Anywho... At the end of the day... More people, more money, higher prices on items with desirability. Uninsc stuff seems to be the only things affected (and minis of course). Insc weapons have stayed pretty consistent for the last little while. (slight fluctuation) Maybe if everyone starts playing prophecies/factions we will see prices come down a bit... (Rolling all over the floor laughing to death)

Carnage.