Curse

Captain Krompdown · Jan 31, 2011, 07:25 AM // 07:25

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pleikki

Well my statictics are based on drops me & my friends had.

Personally overall like 20/10 ones even. had 3-4 dragons. 0 plats and 0 Bo's

And had way more dragons dropping then bo/plat, and for the skins the change it being 20/20 should be same. as they drop for same attris etc.

Just guess for dragon staffs most ppl just keep em. when ppl rather sell bo/plat..

Tho good bo's are way more common then dragon for sure. AS Bo's quite easyly farmable when plat & dragon aren that easy, even tho posible

So, then, since your stats were based on drops, I'm assuming you have a few 20/20 dragons to show?

I hope you don't take this personally, but I'm not convinced by your argument that the 20/20 dragon staves must be around but that they haven't come to light because people keep them. You said your stats are based on drops but then you say that the 20/20 dragon staves exist but that your evidence is invisible.

Huh?

Pleikki · Jan 31, 2011, 11:55 AM // 11:55

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain Krompdown

So, then, since your stats were based on drops, I'm assuming you have a few 20/20 dragons to show?

I hope you don't take this personally, but I'm not convinced by your argument that the 20/20 dragon staves must be around but that they haven't come to light because people keep them. You said your stats are based on drops but then you say that the 20/20 dragon staves exist but that your evidence is invisible.

Huh?

No, as i said i never had any of the skins 20/20 drop duh, I just explained

Quote:

And had way more dragons dropping then bo/plat, and for the skins the change it being 20/20 should be same. as they drop for same attris etc.

so due that, im thinking there should be as much or more 20/20 dragons. as bo's plats excisting

Yawgmoth · Jan 31, 2011, 03:53 PM // 15:53

For every one oldschool multiprofession staff there's exactly the same chance to drop with 20/20 mod of that same attribute. So simply the rarity of 20/20 ones is directly proportional to the rarity of any gold max staves of that skin.

Pleikki · Jan 31, 2011, 04:01 PM // 16:01

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yawgmoth

For every one oldschool multiprofession staff there's exactly the same chance to drop with 20/20 mod of that same attribute. So simply the rarity of 20/20 ones is directly proportional to the rarity of any gold max staves of that skin.

Thanks for that, just as i though :9

Captain Krompdown · Feb 01, 2011, 01:43 AM // 01:43

Waiting to see the staves.

You can hypothesize and 'duh' until you turn blue (or at least until you hit puberty). Until we see the staves, you simply have no evidence to back up your statements. Sorry about that.

Pleikki · Feb 01, 2011, 05:26 AM // 05:26

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain Krompdown

Waiting to see the staves.

You can hypothesize and 'duh' until you turn blue (or at least until you hit puberty). Until we see the staves, you simply have no evidence to back up your statements. Sorry about that.

Well from now on i will screen every dragon/bo/plat staff drop i guess and see how many of each i get ^^

expugnare · Feb 01, 2011, 05:57 AM // 05:57

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain Krompdown

Waiting to see the staves.
(or at least until you hit puberty).

That was rather ad hominem. O.o

Captain Krompdown · Feb 01, 2011, 08:50 AM // 08:50

Quote:

Originally Posted by expugnare

That was rather ad hominem. O.o

You neglected to quote the reason for my comment. Pleikki's response (which included a 'duh') was rather 3rd grade.

As for the topic itself, there are perfectly good examples of certain staves being very rare in reality, even though such rarity makes no sense according to the rules that people have supposedly discovered about the loot system.

For example, consider a req 9 20/20 blood shadow staff. Shadow staves are not especially rare. Req 9 20/10 shadow staves are not hard to find and they do come in blood req. The 20/20 version, however, has eluded the grasp of a prominent poster on this thread. Despite owning a req9 20/20 death and req 9 20/20 curses, this person (who I'm sure will not name him/herself) gave up on completing the set (and dismantled it) because of the sheer impossibility of finding the 20/20 blood version.

Pleikki · Feb 01, 2011, 12:26 PM // 12:26

Quote:

Originally Posted by Captain Krompdown

You neglected to quote the reason for my comment. Pleikki's response (which included a 'duh') was rather 3rd grade.

As for the topic itself, there are perfectly good examples of certain staves being very rare in reality, even though such rarity makes no sense according to the rules that people have supposedly discovered about the loot system.

For example, consider a req 9 20/20 blood shadow staff. Shadow staves are not especially rare. Req 9 20/10 shadow staves are not hard to find and they do come in blood req. The 20/20 version, however, has eluded the grasp of a prominent poster on this thread. Despite owning a req9 20/20 death and req 9 20/20 curses, this person (who I'm sure will not name him/herself) gave up on completing the set (and dismantled it) because of the sheer impossibility of finding the 20/20 blood version.

Aye that was me, atleast i had curse and death but no blood and sold em, Tho i didnt rly seek Blood one, never even tried spamming/making thread for one. But What does that prove? That Getting specific attri 20/20 might be rare, but not any attri 20/20? And again. "Duh!"

Captain Krompdown · Feb 01, 2011, 05:08 PM // 17:08

Well, for one, it proves that rarity of skin does not directly predict rarity of specific combinations of mods. That was the premise upon which you drew your conclusions regarding the supposed non-rarity of 20/20 dragon staves.

I know I'm asking you to do a lot of thinking here, but I was really expecting better than this from you:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pleikki

...asdklsdlkjs... And again. "Duh!"

My bad for having a conversation with Pleikki.

You've just proven more than I ever could've hoped to prove.

Bye.

Tommy's · Feb 01, 2011, 08:06 PM // 20:06

Something Mr. Captain Krompdown seems to forget while using the fact that Pleikki never had a 20/20 blood shadowstaff, but did have a 20/20 death and curses one, is considering how much effort said Pleikki had to put in finding the death and curses one. I have no idea if this was a hard effort, but its deffinatly something that should be considered if you want to jump to conclusions from this. And perhabs we should bring up standard deviation, to conclude that you can't draw conclusions on a single deviating attribute.

That said, I must conclude Captain Krompdown is asking for impossible prove. Pleikki, nor me for that matter, nor any other regular guildwarsplayer, can't prove anything. Simply because you cannot draw conclusions from the few screenshots you can collect, you can always blame it on an exceptional situation. The only one who could possibly shed light on it, is Anet itself. So don't ask for the impossible.

Captain Krompdown · Feb 01, 2011, 08:35 PM // 20:35

Then what are we asking for when we start threads like this? If proof is impossible, then a meaningful answer is impossible and the thread is pointless. Pleikki can say that it's seen more dragons than plats. I've spent just as much time (probably more) shopping for nice staves and I've seen far more 20/20 plats than dragons. I've seen people with 20/20 plats for sale and I've seen people with 20/20 plats that aren't for sale. As for dragons, I own every single one I've ever seen except for one. For me -- based on my considerable experience in the marketplace -- the conclusion is obvious.

As for 90% of what you just said, I'm going to ignore it because I think it will send us down rabbit holes that don't need to be explored.

I'm also going to sign off on this thread. You can go back to saying whatever you'd like (and for whatever reasons you're saying it). Sayonara.

Tommy's · Feb 01, 2011, 08:53 PM // 20:53

I think this respond won't be without a use, because I have a feeling your untameable arrogance will force you to read this anyway..

As far as my concerns go, this thread is to make certain things more plausible to come to an agreement. And to pass the time.

Then I would like to say that I never took your conclusions into doubt, I was just trying to point out that others may have different insights, and that prove is impossible, so you should not be asking for it. Theories can live next to eachother. Thats what they are theories for.

Sayonara

Bright Star Shine · Feb 01, 2011, 09:28 PM // 21:28

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tommy's

Theories can live next to eachother. Thats what they are theories for.

I think there are many religions that will disagree with you, but you are right, this entire discussion made this thread a bit disappointing..

Tommy's · Feb 01, 2011, 09:36 PM // 21:36

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bright Star Shine

I think there are many religions that will disagree with you, but you are right, this entire discussion made this thread a bit disappointing..

Thats because relegions give another definition to theory then sience does

For example christians in general find that christianity can't live next to Darwinism, yet Darwinism never excluded a god. Its because one is a religion other is science, though both are only hypothesises.

Cleavage · Feb 01, 2011, 09:42 PM // 21:42

Most high end traders who have been around for awhile know what the other traders need for their collections and know that if they find an item the other trader needs it automatically becomes much more valuable than if the trader found it themselves. The idea is to use that item to trade towards something they need which the other trader owns. With that being said, high end old school traders always have their eyes open for certain items and information is always shared.

Kromp based his argument off years of knowledge and investigations. Kromp is right.
Pleikkis argument is based of findings that are stacked to support his personal opinion. Im not saying Pleikki doesnt know what he is talking about. He has some knowledge but in this situation he needs to accept the research and accept that he is wrong.

salvatore888 · Feb 01, 2011, 11:49 PM // 23:49

Ok guys , just my two cents here...
Everything i will write in this post is in favor of the thread's initial purpose and only.
Last two years , i have bought a countless amount of unidentified bo+dragon+platinum staves.
Calculating roughly , i can say i've bought and id'ed like 1500 staves of these three skins in total.

From this amount , 15k have been bought from halcyon job farmers , and they were such staves in a 1:10 ratio calculating really conservatively.
It may have been more than 1500(and yes , i have merched over 10k pairs of daggers) . I know , it's insane-and irrelevant , too , obviously.

In the meanwhile , I ran over 10k chests , but the droprate of these skins was so low , i won't even bother adding to the results.
Just for the history , only one decent staff from the chestruns was a 20/19 dragon(one of the 5 indicated below).

Judging by overall amount of staves i bought , most were bo's and then platinums and last were dragons . So , based on my own research , rarest to drop are dragons , then platinums , and then bo's.

I will include 20/19s in the results , too , as it's really rare to find matching attributes. Just got a little over a dozen of all three skins in total....

In a total , i got

2 * 20/20 bo staves

1* 20/20 dragon staff

0* 20/20 platinum staves
no image , obviously...

Now , let's see the 20/19 results

6* 20/19 bo staves

6* 20/19 platinum staves

missing one from the pic here , a q9 20/19 death that i sold few days ago

6* 20/19 Dragon Staves

Missing a q13 spawn 20/19 restoration , couldn't find it atm.

And i'm not counting all the spawn-channeling , spawn-communing ,smite-prot etc "20/20"s , a lot of ppl consider them as 20/20s , but i don't. I got plenty of those , especially dragons , but i don't count them.

Only mix of attributes there is in the results is divine-heal or divine-prot for obvious reasons.
I only listed staves that i got by buying unids( equals droprate) and not 20/20staves of each skin i own , of course.

So , however large my experiment pool is , can it really give any answers?

There is a definite answer.

20/20 in any of these skins is really , really rare.
20/19 happens like 5-6 times more.
So , imo there's like a 1% chance one of these staves to be 20/19,
and possibly 0.2% chance to be 20/20.

When we are talking about such small odds , which are reapplied everytime an identification takes place , we can't talk about numbers / rarity in 100% safety.

If one skin has 0.4% chance and another 0.3% , difference is almost insignificant.

Just my two cents and let's get back to the topic people.
Such a nice thread here , let's not mess it up.

Peace!

Captain Krompdown · Feb 02, 2011, 02:35 AM // 02:35

Quote:

Originally Posted by salvatore888

Last two years , i have bought a countless amount of unidentified bo+dragon+platinum staves.
Calculating roughly , i can say i've bought and id'ed like 1500 staves of these three skins in total.

Judging by overall amount of staves i bought , most were bo's and then platinums and last were dragons . So , based on my own research , rarest to drop are dragons , then platinums , and then bo's.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cleavage

Kromp based his argument off years of knowledge and investigations. Kromp is right.
Pleikkis argument is based of findings that are stacked to support his personal opinion. Im not saying Pleikki doesnt know what he is talking about. He has some knowledge but in this situation he needs to accept the research and accept that he is wrong.

QFT

I'm glad that two experienced players who actually know what they're talking about have decided to chime in.

To everyone else: Enjoy your thread.

expugnare · Feb 02, 2011, 03:42 AM // 03:42

Quote:

Originally Posted by salvatore888

Ok guys , just my two cents here...

If one skin has 0.4% chance and another 0.3% , difference is almost insignificant.

Quoted for truth. Dragons, Bo's and Plats are all RED ENGINE GORED ENGINE GORED ENGINE GORED ENGINE GOing rare. If you have a 20/20 with a nice req of any of these, consider yourself lucky.

That is all. : )

Lithril Ashwalker · Aug 16, 2011, 03:18 PM // 15:18

i had a screenshot of one of my old staves, couldnt find ANYthing on guild wars wiki about it(3 days of searching) though there was a WAND with armor penetration 10%. i had a air staff with armor penetration 10%. i will post on here. no idea wtf happened to it

there it is

thought it was from this quest however http://wiki.guildwars.com/wiki/The_S...f_Piken_Square

the staff on THAT quest is 10/10...this one...is 10/5