Curse

zwei2stein · Nov 21, 2008, 10:38 AM // 10:38

Hello,

I made small utility that checks how guilds/hvhers have done in tournament in past, projects their expected performance and votes in xunlai house for you.

Get it at:

http://gw.zweistein.cz/RewardPointsPredictor_0.32.zip

How to make some use of it:

1) You need to have java installed and working.
2) Unzip somewhere
3) edit files:
* users.cfg (your username and password for xth which is same as your guildwars username and password)
* 1v1.cfg (names of players you vote for in 1v1, empty file if you want automated votes)
* gvg.cfg (names of guilds you vote for in GvG, empty file if you want automated votes)
4) run "predictor.cmd"

Troubleshooting:

It ran ok, but there are no votes in XTH - XTH is probably closed and will not accept votes even if application can send votes to server. You are either trying vote too early or too late.

FAQ:

Is it safe? - Well, you have to trust third party utility with your username and password, Arena Net does not recomend it and neither do I. You simply have to trust me.
So, is it really safe? - Part of package you download is source code which you can examine yourself or you can have your friends take a look at it or just trust other forum folks who already looked. It should be easy to spot something nasty. And equaly easy to use source as inspiration to write your own version that is safe
I am scared! - I have reputation at stake. There is no point anyway because I would be very easy and obvious target for anets ban hammer.

Is it legal? - Yes. Duh. Law does not come in equation here at all.
Is it okay according to EULA or Anet? - Seems so. EULA does not cover Xunlai house interaction. I should note that they can identify users of this tool rather easily.
Is anet ok with this? - They have not asked for removal of this tool, so probably yes.

How do predictions work? - Prediction are based on past scores of guilds that were in top 16 of tournament. Those scores are averaged, with most recent scores having more weight (so called floating average). Its very simple, but effective method.
What about ladder? - Ladder is not supported (yet), it might be added later after there is some concesus on how much ladder position translates to winning MATs, nor are other factors (like number of QP, Smurfiness of guild, etc.).
It says something different than those prediction threads! - Of course it does, noone have written AI that can comprehend and follow guild-drama, smurfs, reforms, how much has X drunken last night and who smokes pot while monking.

This commandile stuff is clumsy, what about GUI. - Gui is planned, but lo, low, low priority for me.

Jongal · Nov 21, 2008, 04:55 PM // 16:55

I checked the source code and built it successfully on my own. Downloaded all the libraries again ( better safe than sorry

). Used httpcore-4.0-beta3.jar instead of httpcore-4.0-beta2.jar though.
That said if the binaries contain whats in the source, you are safe to use it guys ( If you trust a 20 something posts guy on guru

). At least concerning your email/pw. I didn't verify that the prediction makes sense (yet).

I could not successfully run it yet. Can't connect to http://www.guildwars.com/competitive...esultselim.php . But it is possible that that is because I'm on my companies network (it works in the browser though). I'll give you an update when I'm at home. Which will be pretty soon because it's Friday

Felixious · Nov 21, 2008, 05:31 PM // 17:31

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jongal

( If you trust a 20 something posts guy on guru

).

Join Date
06-12-2006
Total Posts
2,338

It does sound very intriguing, and if its a green light, i'll check it out.

zwei2stein · Nov 21, 2008, 06:05 PM // 18:05

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jongal

I could not successfully run it yet. Can't connect to http://www.guildwars.com/competitive...esultselim.php . But it is possible that that is because I'm on my companies network (it works in the browser though). I'll give you an update when I'm at home. Which will be pretty soon because it's Friday

Chances are, you are behind firewall and you must use your company proxy server to connect to internet - browser has proxy configured so you can surf net just fine, but this tool does not know about proxy or firewall.

Absinth187 · Nov 21, 2008, 07:19 PM // 19:19

Quote:

Originally Posted by Felixious

Join Date
06-12-2006
Total Posts
2,338

He was talking about himself.

Jongal · Nov 21, 2008, 10:13 PM // 22:13

You were right about our companies proxy.
I love the idea of this tool.
Now that I tried it: For me it only makes the GvG predictions ( in the Tournament House, I can see both predictions on the console ).

Are you going to make a GUI for it? It could become a really cool tool.

Why are you calculating the average like this:
predictedOrder = (predictedOrder + order)/2; ?
This does not create the arithmetic mean, does it?

The problem with creating an average from the last tournaments, is that a lot of guilds start smurf guilds and so on ( Dangerous pumkins is rated high in the prediction threads, but was only in one tournament yet). Don't have a real good idea to consider this though. Maybe also look at the guild ladder or give more weight to the last tournaments.

Still the tool will make a way better prediction than logging in and move some random guilds into the boxes - like I did up to last month

zwei2stein · Nov 22, 2008, 05:37 PM // 17:37

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jongal

Why are you calculating the average like this:
predictedOrder = (predictedOrder + order)/2; ?
This does not create the arithmetic mean, does it?

Nope, its weighted moving average. Latest result has full weight, result before has half weight, resulte before that has quater weight, etc ...

Massive Impulsa · Nov 22, 2008, 06:45 PM // 18:45

So all in all, this program makes Predictions for u?

BEcause it calculates the one whit most AT points, last mAT, Smurfs play, gvg wins/loss etc?

Fril Estelin · Nov 22, 2008, 11:38 PM // 23:38

Quote:

Originally Posted by Felixious

Join Date
06-12-2006
Total Posts
2,338

It does sound very intriguing, and if its a green light, i'll check it out.

zwei2stein is well-known here, a very good contributor to Guru with extensive technical knowledge. I'd run his tool without much questions

.

zwei2stein, you need to reassure everyone on the use of the email/password before you get a general scare (not everyone looks at src and compiles code

). I guess your prediction method is as good as everyone's here, but I'll try to see whether it matches the corresponding threads anyway.

Nice job

joshuarodger · Nov 23, 2008, 12:32 AM // 00:32

gg Z

12 characters

Lyssa Apate · Nov 23, 2008, 01:29 AM // 01:29

If you steal my account, I'll finally be rid of this game.

At least it makes more educated guesses than I do. We'll see in a few weeks.

Mystica · Nov 23, 2008, 05:18 PM // 17:18

Gone through some of his posts + memories of previous posts = I'll run it without fear

Nice idea, especially for people like me that don'T bother checking threads and like but just drag random names to the spots ^^

zwei2stein · Nov 23, 2008, 09:16 PM // 21:16

(Thanks for feedback, Frill and everyone)

Updated OP a bit.

Fril Estelin · Nov 23, 2008, 10:06 PM // 22:06

Hey zwei, you might want to add a version number if you're going to update it.

I didn't know that there were monks smoking pot ;P

Nightow · Nov 25, 2008, 01:55 AM // 01:55

Nifty little tool here zwei2stein, thanks!

One quick Q though, it seems that it's not saving the HvH predictions. Is this a common thing or am I maybe doing something wrong on my end?

zwei2stein · Nov 25, 2008, 08:38 AM // 08:38

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nightow

One quick Q though, it seems that it's not saving the HvH predictions. Is this a common thing or am I maybe doing something wrong on my end?

I have had it happen rarely. Can you send me output of application? I should help me to see what happened.

Also, try to vote for HvH manually and see if my program "catches on" and overwrites your 1v1 votes, that seems to help for some mysterious reason.

esthetic · Nov 25, 2008, 11:08 AM // 11:08

Can you update the results? Additional participants in the GvG and HvH have qualified Nov. tourney since your first post. I am not downloading until i see it work first.

Nightow · Nov 25, 2008, 02:32 PM // 14:32

Quote:

Originally Posted by zwei2stein

I have had it happen rarely. Can you send me output of application? I should help me to see what happened.

Sure, I uploaded the output here.

Quote:

Originally Posted by zwei2stein

Also, try to vote for HvH manually and see if my program "catches on" and overwrites your 1v1 votes, that seems to help for some mysterious reason.

Tried that and my random picks stayed up there after running the application.

P.S. After looking at the output and finding where it says who to vote for in 1v1, I picked each one manually on the Xunlai Prediction page and it managed to save my predictions then.

MrGuildBoi · Nov 25, 2008, 06:21 PM // 18:21

What do you do on step 2? I don't know computer programming or know what syntaxing a command prompt is.

I also tried opening predictor.cmd, but it just closes a second after.

Nightow · Nov 25, 2008, 06:56 PM // 18:56

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrGuildBoi

What do you do on step 2? I don't know computer programming or know what syntaxing a command prompt is.

I also tried opening predictor.cmd, but it just closes a second after.

If you want your command prompt to point to a certain folder/directory when opening it, follow these instructions: http://www.msfn.org/board/Command-pr...s-t117718.html.