Curse

LeetScythemaster · Nov 19, 2007, 10:50 PM // 22:50

I just got finished running 3 areas of GW:EN for chests. I'm rank 2 Wisdom and rank 2 Treasure Hunter so I have a retain rate of 52%. Well, after running those three areas and opening 10 chests, i ended up with 9 purples, 1 gold, and 9 broken lockpicks

. I'm not a math genius, but those numbers seem a little off. I know nothing will happen as far as fixing the retain rate or drop rates, maybe I just had a bad chest run day, but I just had to vent I guess.

Post what you think/feel.

Diddy bow · Nov 19, 2007, 11:08 PM // 23:08

well othre people will prberly tell you this, but such a small number istn really conclusive, its annoying ut out of the people on guru who have really rubbish luck in GW:EN there are thousands who are fine. Probs just your luck though, i used to have it bad in GW:EN now its so-so they may have kept it a little bad at the start to help keep the weapons at least a little rare, who knows?

I wonder how a fixed rate would work? I.E a system with no attribute of chance.

Dev121 · Nov 20, 2007, 12:59 AM // 00:59

Sorry to say but these are a risk and always have been. You cant lose in vegas then say 'But the other guys are winning'. Just gunna have to get on with it im afraid.

Antheus · Nov 20, 2007, 01:05 AM // 01:05

Use 1000 lockpicks, then look at statistics.

10 is not significant.

Quote:

I wonder how a fixed rate would work?

This is a fixed rate. If you have 50% retain chance, you will retain the picks half the time. It doesn't vary from opening to opening.

placebo overdose · Nov 20, 2007, 01:16 AM // 01:16

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeetScythemaster

I just got finished running 3 areas of GW:EN for chests. I'm rank 2 Wisdom and rank 2 Treasure Hunter so I have a retain rate of 52%. Well, after running those three areas and opening 10 chests, i ended up with 9 purples, 1 gold, and 9 broken lockpicks

. I'm not a math genius, but those numbers seem a little off. I know nothing will happen as far as fixing the retain rate or drop rates, maybe I just had a bad chest run day, but I just had to vent I guess.

Post what you think/feel.

well i dont want to really talk about lps i dont think the system is right but thats me although you dont have a 52% chance of not breaking sorry you have a 16% chance so your results are about normal now the gold/ purple ratio is odd imo
wisdom has nothing to do with lp rate and treasure hunter is 3% per

HawkofStorms · Nov 20, 2007, 01:45 AM // 01:45

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variance

Read.
Now shh....

Winterclaw · Nov 20, 2007, 01:51 AM // 01:51

You'd have to compile the number of grapes and breaks from a number of players to get large enough of a sample to have a good idea. I'd say you'd need to have 10K worth of data or more to be enough.

Hawk a better article: Gambler's Fallacy

Div · Nov 20, 2007, 02:14 AM // 02:14

This isn't a suggestion. It's just an idiot crying about his bad luck. Close?

Snow Bunny · Nov 20, 2007, 02:16 AM // 02:16

Quote:

Originally Posted by holymasamune

This isn't a suggestion. It's just an idiot crying about his bad luck. Close?

QFT.

o noes, i tried to get rich outta a money sink and i lost money. qq

Phoenix Tears · Nov 20, 2007, 12:23 PM // 12:23

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeetScythemaster

I just got finished running 3 areas of GW:EN for chests. I'm rank 2 Wisdom and rank 2 Treasure Hunter so I have a retain rate of 52%. Well, after running those three areas and opening 10 chests, i ended up with 9 purples, 1 gold, and 9 broken lockpicks

. I'm not a math genius, but those numbers seem a little off. I know nothing will happen as far as fixing the retain rate or drop rates, maybe I just had a bad chest run day, but I just had to vent I guess.

Post what you think/feel.

ya..i have also the feeling in the last days, that lockpick success rate is broken ..

my last like 15 lockpics did all broke in a row ....

normally, the pattern looks more like this:

fail fail, success, fail, success, succes, fail, fail, fail, success....

but not 15x in a row fail -.-

imo the chances needs to be checked ...

Cebe · Nov 20, 2007, 12:36 PM // 12:36

10 locked chests opened is hardly a significant sample.

Since this is basically amounts to a rant thread and is not suggesting anything I feel a full-on closure about to occur.