Curse

studentochaos · Mar 20, 2006, 04:29 AM // 04:29

There are a few behaviors going on in the guildwars economy I am quite sure exist, others I would suggest only exist in myth, however, lacking detailed evidence and data, I won't go into more detail on those topics. There are some topics which the effect is clear.

Fact:
Greens item prices are dropping.

Explanation: How many total elementalist characters exist in guildwars? How many Rago's flame staff have been farmed? As this number moves closer to parody the price will fall as supply remains the same but the amount of demand falls. (A similar problem is occuring in non-rareskin golds, as the OP states.) Additionally, there are less farmers, but the decrease in farmers is less then the decrease in demand. Only one set of items is increasing in price and that is Garboks wand and chalice. This is due to a shift in PvP demand as inspiration is the new energy management of choice post the OoB nerf (item set price is still low relativly, but I made out well expecting this when I saw the update so I bought all I could find

).

Fact:
Saving is up

Explanation: As a previous poster suggested many farmers are saving in expectation of new items they want to show off after factions comes out. Thus, they are restricting their disgressionary spending and there is less spluge buying. (I am not the case, I still spluge buy random stuff because can't control such impluses well.

)

Fact:
Speculative buying is occuring

Explanation: Rubies and saphires are in high demand but the price is still low compared to number of people who want to buy them. The reason for this is two fold. One, the price is chained to the rare material trader. Two, people know price will shift after factions, they don't know how much. Many are hording these items anticipating a jump in price. However, I personally think that the price may actually fall as new farming opportunites arrive or if the items that they create are not highly prized. However, if the items they create have ANY non-vanity purpose they will surely jump dramatically.

Myth: Gold Farmer Inflation

Explanation: Take dye and rune prices over time and compare as a panel set. You would see that Anet is forcing these prices down with trader price ceiling and thus is actually creating deflation on the economy as a whole (when you consider purchasing power, your gold is worth more now then 6 months ago). While rare skins and gold are high, they will always be high. Increases in those prices are because more people are rich enough to bid on those competativly. However, supply remains relativly the same, but with more money to be spent and more prospective buyers prices increase as they fight each other for the scarce good. However, if more people are farming for these that will increase supply and thus reduce this pressure. Thus, if those gold skin farmers didn't exist the prices would be much much higher (though methods of creating wealth would be mitigated slightly so the jump would not be exponental, though still higher).

Part Myth: Ebay gold buying is causing inflation.

Explanation: This is a plague in other games. Guildwars is relatively safe because Drok's armor will never cost more than 1.5k a piece and 15k armor remains the same. The only way this impacts the game economy is in the rare skin gold market where some buyers may use this to give them an edge in bidding. However, the number of people who buy Guildwars gold is vastly smaller then people think. Guildwars is not a cash cow for people who make real world livings off video game item/gold selling. This would suggest that the size of this impact is largly exaggerated.

Fact: LA Dist 1 is insane

Explanation: Its true.

Bob of Maple Ave · Mar 20, 2006, 08:01 AM // 08:01

Quote:

Originally Posted by midnight caretaker

I did this a few times and was trying to give away 25k with no takers.

Wow, that's an eye-opener. I thought people were just apathetic. I, too, have noticed that I can't sell anything...even when I sell at 1/2 of what's considered to be average. This is especially true when it comes to weapon mods--I've been trying to sell a +28 staff wrapping of fortitude for a week (I'm down to 3k for it, still no takers).

Quote:

Originally Posted by midnight caretaker

Finally, I had an idea about GW adding a merch that would buy items at decent prices and resell with a markup of course

I don't know about implementation, but I think that's a great idea. One of the first things to turn me off about this game was that, in order to sell stuff, you basically have to sit and do nothing but spam. It just kills the action.

Every MMORPG I've played has had a better system of commerce (free ones included). I think it would really do a lot to complement the game if something like this was included...

Francis Crawford · Mar 20, 2006, 08:57 AM // 08:57

I got the game in late November, and made a lot of gold in December in small increments, typically 500-1500 gold for items a lot worse than others might merchant. But that stopped being fun for me, and I can make gold just as easily by farming.

Anyhow, the new auction house could be pretty interesting, because it might well cause SUPPLY to skyrocket. All the stuff that people were merchanting might now be thrown into the auction system instead.

And if that happens, it won't be good for prices.

Riceboi · Mar 20, 2006, 09:05 AM // 09:05

Quote:

Originally Posted by studentochaos

There are a few behaviors going on in the guildwars economy I am quite sure exist, others I would suggest only exist in myth, however, lacking detailed evidence and data, I won't go into more detail on those topics. There are some topics which the effect is clear.

Fact:
Greens item prices are dropping.

Explanation: How many total elementalist characters exist in guildwars? How many Rago's flame staff have been farmed? As this number moves closer to parody the price will fall as supply remains the same but the amount of demand falls. (A similar problem is occuring in non-rareskin golds, as the OP states.) Additionally, there are less farmers, but the decrease in farmers is less then the decrease in demand. Only one set of items is increasing in price and that is Garboks wand and chalice. This is due to a shift in PvP demand as inspiration is the new energy management of choice post the OoB nerf (item set price is still low relativly, but I made out well expecting this when I saw the update so I bought all I could find

).

Fact:
Saving is up

Explanation: As a previous poster suggested many farmers are saving in expectation of new items they want to show off after factions comes out. Thus, they are restricting their disgressionary spending and there is less spluge buying. (I am not the case, I still spluge buy random stuff because can't control such impluses well.

)

Fact:
Speculative buying is occuring

Explanation: Rubies and saphires are in high demand but the price is still low compared to number of people who want to buy them. The reason for this is two fold. One, the price is chained to the rare material trader. Two, people know price will shift after factions, they don't know how much. Many are hording these items anticipating a jump in price. However, I personally think that the price may actually fall as new farming opportunites arrive or if the items that they create are not highly prized. However, if the items they create have ANY non-vanity purpose they will surely jump dramatically.

Myth: Gold Farmer Inflation

Explanation: Take dye and rune prices over time and compare as a panel set. You would see that Anet is forcing these prices down with trader price ceiling and thus is actually creating deflation on the economy as a whole (when you consider purchasing power, your gold is worth more now then 6 months ago). While rare skins and gold are high, they will always be high. Increases in those prices are because more people are rich enough to bid on those competativly. However, supply remains relativly the same, but with more money to be spent and more prospective buyers prices increase as they fight each other for the scarce good. However, if more people are farming for these that will increase supply and thus reduce this pressure. Thus, if those gold skin farmers didn't exist the prices would be much much higher (though methods of creating wealth would be mitigated slightly so the jump would not be exponental, though still higher).

Part Myth: Ebay gold buying is causing inflation.

Explanation: This is a plague in other games. Guildwars is relatively safe because Drok's armor will never cost more than 1.5k a piece and 15k armor remains the same. The only way this impacts the game economy is in the rare skin gold market where some buyers may use this to give them an edge in bidding. However, the number of people who buy Guildwars gold is vastly smaller then people think. Guildwars is not a cash cow for people who make real world livings off video game item/gold selling. This would suggest that the size of this impact is largly exaggerated.

Fact: LA Dist 1 is insane

Explanation: Its true.

Excellent post! I agree with every word!

dgb · Mar 20, 2006, 09:39 AM // 09:39

Green items did wonders for the economy. They reduced it such that only some golds were worth having anymore. No more overcharging for a near perfect 14^50 axe or something - everything below a green is tied to the price of the green, which is continuously dropping.

However A-net cleverly made it so that very few greens are perfect. As far as I can tell the best mods for an axe are Vampiric/Zealous axe of defense/fortitude which don't exist on a green. Hence for people who can afford it, the high end of the gold item market is still necessary. I have 4 15^50 gold axes and they were expensive, but I prefer to have my own mods on them. However for people without the gold to burn, green items work nearly as well at a fraction of the cost. Without the greens I would have had a clear advantage over everybody else as for a similar expenditure you would get a low grade weapon. Now you get a green, and the market converges. The very top end still has an advantage but it's minor.

Two things sell now. Perfection (and a 15% enchanted axe isn't perfect, because it gets beaten by a 15^50 axe) and vanity skins. Anything that isn't perfect gets beaten by a green and vanity skins should be obvious enough.

And studentochaos, the noun you are looking for is parity, not parody.

Ninjutsu Honor Code · Mar 20, 2006, 11:19 AM // 11:19

Ive been selling perfect items to merchants simply because they are unsellable *snif* goodbye 15^ wingblade 10/10 +30 health.

Traveller · Mar 20, 2006, 02:37 PM // 14:37

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ninjutsu Honor Code

Ive been selling perfect items to merchants simply because they are unsellable *snif* goodbye 15^ wingblade 10/10 +30 health.

If you think that is hard, try selling a req 8 axe with 14%>50 and 10/9 sundering (and +5 armor). Despite it being very good - just a few points off a perfect one - I have not had one whisper for it when trying to sell it in towns. And this goes for others slightly less-than-perfect weapons as well.

FalconDance · Mar 20, 2006, 02:53 PM // 14:53

Personally, I like the oh-so-close-to-perfect weapons if I'm buying. They're far more affordable and in the end, just as good. And I'm not real picky if it's gold or purple (some blues are really nice, as well) as long as it is a good weapon and what I need.......but apparently that makes me the exception rather than the rule when it comes to weaponry in GW. *sigh*

MasterThrawn · Mar 20, 2006, 02:57 PM // 14:57

I also have tried to sell quite a few good golds and greens, and have not been able to do so. I am holding on to some of the better ones, but think I'll just have to Merch some of them. It's a shame, because some are very good. I even tried to sell a Superior Absorption rune I found at a good price, and no repsonses. Had to Merch that as well - at least that paid OK. But no point in finding these items anymore, as there seems to be no demand. Shame. Maybe when Factions starts up...

Indira · Mar 20, 2006, 03:41 PM // 15:41

My thoughts on the GW economy... I don't see GW as a 'gold-driven' game and probably not meant to be one either.

One huge aspect of almost every other game is the sub culture of merchanting. I think GW is trying to get away from that, just as they moved away from the necessity of 'grinding'.

There isn't a lot of gold-sink items in the game and probably for a good reason. You don't have to have a super rich character to fully enjoy playing. The new players just starting out aren't going to have to sit back drooling and saying, "some day (after 1,000's of hours playing) I'll get that weapon I always wanted."

I think the merchanting culture that sorta naturally springs up in all games is trying to force a strong buy/sell economy in GW and it's just not going to happen. Player merchant prices are down because there are more players now and the true economy of GW is kicking in. There are hundreds of 'perfect' weapons/shields dropped so that they aren't worth an arm and a leg.

Personally, I like this. I never wanted to start playing a new game for the very reason of having to work years just to have a somewhat viable character.

The skill of GW is just that, your skills. It doesn't matter how much coins a character has, or whether or not the character can afford that summer villa (property owning like some games have). Putting those meager little 8 skills together out of hundreds of choices and surviving is what GW is about.

Hopefully those selling GW gold on ebay will get that message and move on to another game. They really have destroyed some areas of GW with their aggressive "ok, you buy" to those not even interested.

studentochaos · Mar 20, 2006, 04:36 PM // 16:36

Quote:

Originally Posted by dgb

And studentochaos, the noun you are looking for is parity, not parody.

Lol. Your right! I may have been sleepy while this was written. However, I will not edit. That typo is priceless!

Keeper of Birds · Mar 20, 2006, 05:09 PM // 17:09

I think it is basic supply and demand. Right now, people are waiting for Factions. This has a few effects:
1) People who finished the game are spending lots of time farming, because they don't have anything else to do. There are more and more of these folks. It leads to lots of items.
2) People who have money are tending to save it for potential good stuff or jump starting their factions chars.
3) Other people are taking time off

All three of these are deflationary, as 1 will raise supply, while 2 and 3 will lower demand. The impact is greatest on luxury items- that perfect bow, or the 15^50 mod.

For a sign that prices will go up again, look for fewer farmers, a large influx of new users or a decrease in savings. I think Factions will give us all of these as people focus more on the new content- that may drive some items out of favor (ie ectos and shards if new high level armor doesn't require them). It also opens the possibility of arbitrage between Cantha and Tyria as people who have access to both sell items that can only be acquired in one place to people in the other.

I can't wait.

midnight caretaker · Mar 20, 2006, 08:07 PM // 20:07

Ya there are alot of us with nothing to do but farm make new charscters and put nice weapons and armor on them. Maybe help out a new player but there are not many of those anymore. I am probly one of the newest players as well. I bought the game for myself mid december as an early xmas gift for myself. Once i beat the game with my original character I started getting nice items for him, 15k armor and all the skills, then i started farming ids when it was dying out. Eventually I started a new char and did the same thing with that, it didnt take as long cus my original char helped out with the cash flow. So getting a character and builing them up and doing the same with other characters is fairly easy. The problem besides the economy atm is pvp as well. The whole time I have been playing I have tried getting into this but I have no rank or fame so therefore I cant get into a grp. I had this same experience with getting a credit card when I was younger. I had no one to co-sign so I had a hell of a time getting credit. Ya sure 10 years later my credit is good but it was a pain in the a-- getting it there since I didnt have a mommy and daddy to build it for me. PVP is the same way with this rank fame and emote crap. They should get rid of that, then there would be more pvp players. Trust me this will help I talk to other pve players about this all the time

fame is the GW version of a persons credit score

EternalTempest · Mar 20, 2006, 08:23 PM // 20:23

I'm in "save" mode myself. Any items I want, I will farm the monster drops and get the collector's and nothing is screaming "buy me" enough to over come my "save for factions".

I have all my monk skills unlocked, I have all 3 types Drak's armor stat types types (not in to 15k atm). and the greens.

MSecorsky · Mar 20, 2006, 08:50 PM // 20:50

I'm buying nothing until Factions shows me what it has.

Lord Iowerth · Mar 20, 2006, 09:13 PM // 21:13

Factions, why do you torment me with your promises of new pretty things! >_<

*ahem*

You know, i'm to the point where I don't really give a hoot if you think I look stupid wearing 15k druids carrying a "zomg lmao" wishbone-looking ascalon bow ... you know, it shoots the same arrows, they strike the same targets (most of the time) ... meh. /rant

Count to Potato · Mar 20, 2006, 09:13 PM // 21:13

Just keep em to urself

Sagius Truthbarron · Mar 20, 2006, 09:21 PM // 21:21

Quote:

Originally Posted by Asrial

There's no real economy in Guild Wars because the items being bought have no functionality.

That's not true at all. What about the 30+ HP axe haft I need to buy? 60k. The 10/10 Furios I want so I can use my PvE character in PvP? 55k. Superior Vigor for basically anything? 70k.

It would be different if Rolls of Hugawikihushamut for 56k Monk Tattoos were outrageously priced; I could understand that. But having to sift around for ages to find a weapon upgrade, and then have it being so expensive?

Savio · Mar 20, 2006, 09:32 PM // 21:32

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sagius Truthbarron

The 10/10 Furios I want so I can use my PvE character in PvP? 55k.

Furious isn't that great. At least it's not Sundering though.

Quote:

Superior Vigor for basically anything? 70k.

Unless prices spiked this morning, Sup Vigor is still pretty damn low compared to what it was a couple of months ago. Rune prices have been down for a while now.

Quote:

But having to sift around for ages to find a weapon upgrade, and then have it being so expensive?

Vampiric upgrades are cheap as hell; only reason Sundering and Fortitude are so expensive is because people like large numbers. Most of the economy is just to buy stuff for looks.

Sagius Truthbarron · Mar 20, 2006, 09:40 PM // 21:40

Quote:

Originally Posted by Savio

Furious isn't that great. At least it's not Sundering though.

I wouldn't really want a Vamperic if I don't have a good weapon to switch to inbetween. Otherwise, none of the other mods are really worth anything. Vamperc really isn't all that hot for a PvP axe, either.

Superior Vigor = 60k. Low, but not in a reasonable price range for non-extremist farmers.

I don't think the game should be built around farmers. Farmers should be feeding the economy, not the other way around.