Curse

Argen · May 05, 2006, 09:00 AM // 09:00

I am a bit curious as to the math, quasi-math, fuzzy math, or lack of math that is related to the vendor prices for Runes and Materials. I have a bit of understanding of the supply and demand system and am completely befuzzled. Examples:

Superior Vigors @35k, available at all times at the Vendor.
Major Vigors @2k, but NOT available at most times at the Vendor.

So, supply side glut of Superior Vigors, highly unlikely, I have only gotten 5 or 6 in drops and only have 8. I can't count the times I've gotten Major Vigors and have none. I've gotten 2 Major drops since Factions, and no Superiors. Demand side has become a bit of feeding frenzy. Go to the Vendor sneak a couple at 2k and turn to the market and pop them out for 3-5k (depending on your level of greed). Same applies to say Cloth (@150g) and never in stock in large quantities now vs. Ectos. (5k) which seem to be in stock.

I'm fully aware of the differences in the runes and their values to a point, I just can't figure out what ANet's system of figuring cost because they claim that the price fluctuates based on supply and demand... so Superior Vigors which are in stock and seemingly to be alot of are valued more than Major Vigors which are painfully hard to acquire...

Just curious if any folks know the math of ANet's for this particular system...

Thanks!!!

Tobias Funke · May 05, 2006, 09:33 AM // 09:33

I would imagine it's because major vigors move much faster and superior vigors don't. Superior Vigor tend to be bought from other players rather than the merchant because of the larger price differential between what it cost to buy from the vendor verse another player. For major vigor the price difference isn't that much so there's less motivation to seek out a bargain rather than simply buy from the trader. Hence far more major vigors go through the trader than superior vigors.

Hunter Sharparrow · May 05, 2006, 09:57 AM // 09:57

I would have to say the above statement is true.

Quote:

I'm fully aware of the differences in the runes and their values to a point, I just can't figure out what ANet's system of figuring cost because they claim that the price fluctuates based on supply and demand...

From everything that I've read by anet they have only ever said that the economy is player driven. It is a well known misconception that the prices are simply affected by supply and demand. Just like the real life economy, there is alot more to it than that.

Quote:

so Superior Vigors which are in stock and seemingly to be alot of are valued more than Major Vigors which are painfully hard to acquire...

One of the variables that influence the price of items is their drop rate. I have only ever found two superior vigors since I've bought this game when it first released in stores but found countless major vigors. Now in Cantha I'm still early in the game (haven't been playing it much) and haven't found much for runes at all. For the amount of time I spent playing, if I was in Tyria, I would have found alot more runes (minor or otherwise). Now you say they are hard to acquire but where? If you been working on your new character in Cantha then try going back to Tyria.

Quote:

Major Vigors @2k, but NOT available at most times at the Vendor.

Sold out huh. Well that's just because everybody and their dog has created new Canthan characters and are buying up the major vigors because of how cheap they are. That will change in time. As it was last night, the price of superior absorbtion dropped into the teens puting superior vigor as the most expensive rune. Yay, now I can get my first one for my warrior. I wonder if the price will drop further and that if it does will people buy out the trader kicking the price back up to what it used to be. Gonna have to do some Tombs to get some gold.

kvndoom · May 05, 2006, 10:14 AM // 10:14

I understand where you're coming from. You would think it would be an inverse proportion- as supply gets closer to 0, the price would increase exponentially, up to the defined limit of 100K. If price is based purely on item supply, then even minor Ass and Rit runes would be worth a fortune since none are in stock. The sudden glut of Superior Absorbs and Vigors has dropped Sup Abs (once 100k each) to as low as 15k 2 days ago. If a rune doesn't sell out, how can it be "low supply, high demand" anyway?

How can the system calculate "demand" anyway? Does it read minds? Does it KNOW what rune you want? Most people (except for Warriors) run 1 Superior attribute, 1 Sup Vigor (if they can afford), and 3 Minors. How exactly can "demand" be calculated with such a high number of variables?

My only guess is that at any time there are a fixed number of runes the world system calculates. This would be based on (runes people have in storage) + (runes in stock at trader). A rune in use is technically out of the system until it is salvaged off. Rune drops possible at any given time would be the fixed # of a particular rune that Anet wants in the world minus the result of the equation above. If you use an equation like that, it would be easy to see why people who hoard drive prices up.

Example (pulling number out me arse, but they're to explain my point)

Anet sets the world number of Superior Absorption Runes at 50,000.

Greedy folks around the game world hoard these as fast as they can get them. 35,000 are in storage.

A few folks need gold, so they sell them to the trader as they find them. today the trader has 1,000 in stock.

Now you see the dynamics. 35,000 hoarded + 1,000 at trader makes 36,000 "available."

Subtract that from the total "world supply" and you get 14,000 that can be obtained from drops. In a sense, your true "demand" will be calculated by this number weighed against the number of runes that the trader has.

Watch what happens. Let's say 2,000 SA runes drop today. 3 different scenarios (all extreme, to simplify this):

1) All 2000 are hoarded. 37000H + 1000T = 38,000. 50000-38000 = 12000. Now the price is going to go upwards because the # at trader is the same, but even fewer can possibly drop.

2) All 2000 are sold to trader. 35000H + 3000T = 38000. You still wind up with 12000 possible to drop, BUT the price drops because the number of runes at trader is obviously part of the denominator in the formula that calulates price. More runes at trader = lower price.

3) All 2000 are equipped. The way I see it, an equipped rune is out of circulation and can thus be replaced in the system even though it still exists. If it is salvaged, then somewhere out there a rune that was going to be dropped just ceases to exist. So if they are equipped, all the numbers stay the same. The drop rate is sustained. In a sense, there are technically more than 50000 SA runes now, but the equipped ones are out of circulation, so the number that "can be gotten" (at trader, dropped, or from another player) is still 50000. A sudden mass-salvaging is very unlikely, since the chance of losing the rune altogether makes this unfeasible.

So when Anet chose to "increase drop rate" of SA runes, all they really did was increase the constant. Let's say from 50000 to 100,000. Anet didn't lower rune prices; WE did. Why? People saw that drops increased (with 50000 new runes pumped into circulation, drop rates of course went up) and panicked. They dumped their hoarded runes to the trader, hoping to get the best possible price before the market plummeted, but their panick caused the plummet. With each rune sold to the trader, the H variable goes down and the T variable goes up, which of course decreases the price.

Then you get the domino effect, because the next person dumps as the prices lower, and the next person dumps as the prices get even lower, and so on. If no one had dumped off huge quantities of SA runs to the trader out of panic, they'd still be worth a huge sum. In fact, if someone with a ton of gold were to go now and start buying a truckload of SA runes from the trader, the price would eventually spike back up as H increases and T declines. It would also explain why some out of stock runes are still low-value. If there is a higher fixed world-quantity, then the price can't spike as high when the supply dwindles.

Just my twopence on the matter, could be right, could be farther from the truth than anything George Bush says these days.

BakedMonkey · May 05, 2006, 12:46 PM // 12:46

^^

that seems to make sense..however i think its more complicated than that..

quickmonty · May 05, 2006, 12:58 PM // 12:58

The rune trader has no superior channelling runes. I had one drop the other day and I figured it would be worth quite a bit. I go to rune trader and he offers me 1.8K. I put it up for sale in town for 15K and started a Ritualist stampede! Should have asked for 20K.

So, yeh ...... trader prices don't reflect the true market value of an item.

GranDeWun · May 05, 2006, 01:09 PM // 13:09

I think the traders are whacked. For one thing, they adjust prices very slowly. I watched during the head start as steel prices began going up, but they had not even gotten to +50% before steel disappeared from the market and people were selling directly. A 'black market' is always the sign of a broken normal market.
And the traders buy at stupidly low prices, of course...