Curse

TadaceAce · Jul 04, 2006, 04:29 AM // 04:29

Its been done before but here are all the statistics in one.

If in fact the ring games are truly random these are the statistics.

16 Ring
Any Slot = ((6/16)*(3/2))+((1/16)*(12/2)) = 30/32 or 15/16.

9 Ring
Corner = ((2/9)*(15/10))+((1/9)*(55/10)) = 85/90 or 17/18
Any other spot = ((4/9)*(15/10))+((1/9)*(25/10))= 85/90 or 17/18
Give Anet credit, this board is ingenius, both spots will net you the same tickets.

This means on both of these game you WILL lose tickets on the long run. These are equivalent to a win percentage. You will lose more on 16 ring (but less tickets) because 15/16 < 17/18.

Games occur every 9 seconds (20 games in approx 3 minutes per cycle). This makes for 1 loss every 162 seconds on nine rings. Thats 10 tickets every 162 seconds making average ticket loss every second at .06173. About 1 ticket every 16.2 seconds. Ticket loss for 16 ring is only .01389. Thats about 1 ticket every 72 seconds.

Lets see if I can do tickets won per ticket loss. After all this is the question everyone wants to know isn't it? Everyone wants to get that lucky title with the least amount of money invested into tickets. Well on nine ring. If your gonna lose 10 tickets every 162 seconds you will win (15*17=255 tickets. Thats 25 tickets won per ticket loss. For 16 ring. You lose 2 tickets every 144 seconds. You will win: 15*3=45 tickets. Thats 22.5 tickets won per ticket loss.

On corner of 9 ring with optimal loss rate of 2/3 you will lose 3 times every 81 seconds. To get max unlucky title (25,000 losses) you will be sittin on that ring for 187 hours and 30 minutes (7 days, 19 hours, 30 minutes). Yeah isn't this thing only going to be around for exactly 6 days. Well basically if you sit on that ring every moment of this event you still need A LOT luck (or lack thereof) to get max title. Way to go making a title thats practically impossible to get.
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People might argue my statistics but all I gotta say is I'm 100% confident in this math and if you've had other experiences remember its still gambling. I can only give you the probability, this doesn't mean your not gonna flip heads six times in a row.

Well I spent 250 tickets on the corner of nine ring. I got 5140 tickets toward lucky. Statistically I should have gotten 6250, dang me and my bad luck!

I'm very impressed Anet, all the numbers came out the way they are sposed to (except the unlucky title). No loopholes or flaws. I wish I could say the same about the rest of your game!

Asrial · Jul 04, 2006, 04:37 AM // 04:37

Quote:

Originally Posted by TadaceAce

To get unlucky, sit anywhere on the 16 ring. This one doesn't cost much and statistically you'll lose more.

If you stand on a corner in 9 rings, you have a 66% chance of losing.

If you stand anywhere in 16 rings, you have a 56.25% chance of losing.

spellfall · Jul 04, 2006, 05:16 AM // 05:16

Quote:

Originally Posted by Asrial

If you stand on a corner in 9 rings, you have a 66% chance of losing.

If you stand anywhere in 16 rings, you have a 56.25% chance of losing.

That may be but with the 16 ring the total gold to lose a net 5k GAMES is much less. If you were to bet 2 tickets at 15 gold a ticket (30 gold) on every game then losing 5,000 games times 30 gold is 150,000 gold. Betting 10 tickets at 15 gold a piece (150 gold) on every game, losing 5,000 games would cost 750,000 gold. While the loss percentage is more, the cost is 5X where X = cost for loss title on 16. YAY, a time to apply my senseless math genious!

TadaceAce · Jul 04, 2006, 06:09 AM // 06:09

Quote:

Originally Posted by Asrial

If you stand on a corner in 9 rings, you have a 66% chance of losing.

If you stand anywhere in 16 rings, you have a 56.25% chance of losing.

Hes right, you statistically will lose more on corner of 9 ring but it will cost more. I fixed it. Funny final conclusion.

Vilaptca · Jul 04, 2006, 06:11 AM // 06:11

We already have all the statistics in one place. http://www.guildwarsguru.com/forum/s....php?t=3067920

Same place that has all the other festival information.

Vilaptca