Curse

Parson Brown · Feb 24, 2007, 06:45 AM // 06:45

Quote:

Originally Posted by scyfer

/me wonders again why Anet put these titles in; they're pure grind.

As opposed to Drunkard, sugar rush, Defender of Ascalon, Cartographer, Sunspear, Lightbringer, and Faction?

Well, at least Lightbringer gives a bonus.

ss1986v2 · Feb 24, 2007, 06:56 AM // 06:56

eh, i dont mind the grind titles so much. give those who want grind something to work for, without disrupting the game play for those that dont.

The Ernada · Feb 24, 2007, 07:49 AM // 07:49

How are these titles considered "grind?" All you do is stand AFK. There's no effort so can't be considered grind. Grind is when you're actually putting in the effort doing something over and over again.

Rainith · Feb 24, 2007, 08:25 AM // 08:25

Quote:

Originally Posted by scyfer

/me wonders again why Anet put these titles in; they're pure grind.

Not grind, gold sink, just like drunkard and sweet tooth.

Hell Raiser · Feb 24, 2007, 08:31 AM // 08:31

[offtopic]These titles are gold sinks, and imo a Gold Sink is a good thing with so much gold coming into the economy [/offtopic]

Now on topic, I lost somewhere in the area of 500-750 tickets standing on the corner. After losing so many tickets I moved to the center, now I stay steadily with 1 stack (plenty backups, though). I think it is a matter of personal preference, the title you are going for, or your budget (personally, I don't have a problem with my budget, but I would prefer to get 10-50 or so less Unlucky points per hour [my own research] than lose a bunch of gold).

Navaros · Feb 24, 2007, 08:35 AM // 08:35

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Ernada

How are these titles considered "grind?" All you do is stand AFK. There's no effort so can't be considered grind. Grind is when you're actually putting in the effort doing something over and over again.

It's a grind to get enough gold to be able to go AFK for these titles. Max titles cost ~1 million or something like that, and there's no legit way to get that much gold without massive grind.

That said, almost all of the other titles are also grind-based in a similar way.

Yosh · Feb 24, 2007, 09:16 AM // 09:16

OK 24th I'll go to the protest and laugh at the protesters. You just gave me something to spend my day doing. Thank you!

Viruzzz · Feb 24, 2007, 11:49 AM // 11:49

honestly. for any kind of calculation you have to assume the chances for each ring are equal. i don't think anyone has the time or manpower to fully test the chances, you would need to have multiple people in multiple districts over a long period of time to be able to say anything about biased chances, and even then it could just be coincidence.

so when assuming all chances are equal all the rings get the same amount of tickets won, and the corners lose more often, the math has been done 100's of times, so i wont bother doing it again.

basically by standing in the middle ring you forfeit the potential losses and the unlucky title along with it. there is no point in it.

some people might say that the lucky title has a positive influence on your character, I've heard some people say that, and *if* that is true then the middle one is better, but there is nothing to suggest that the luck titles have any influence on anything.

If you want the luck title exclusively, then go ahead and stand in the middle or side ring, but personally if i can advance 2 titles rather than 1 at the same pace for the first title and for the same cost then i am using that chance.

Antheus · Feb 24, 2007, 03:56 PM // 15:56

Quote:

Originally Posted by Parson Brown

So far this festival, I spent 6 hours in the same corner ring and right now have 10 more tickets than I started with. While this shows a string of good luck, it certainly doesn't mean the trend will continue.

EDIT: Actually, this is a bit of a problem. Right now, I have 82,093 tickets won (3/5 to next level) and 6,397 games lost (1/5 to next level). I'll need to go play 16 rings for a while to even out those bars!

EDIT2: 20 min later I'm down 270 tix! This all feels so, um, random?

On first event, I won tickets at one point (so, 5000 to 7500). On the next event, I lost around 5000 in a matter of hours.

Gambling (apart from being a sin) is a dangerous thing. But all these numbers are irrelevant. A single person can't prove anything here. Just get the win/loss ratio (exact ones, not "yea, around 50,000 tickets" type of answers) and work it out from there.

I bet 15 festival tickets that the numbers are random.

Quote:

Now on topic, I lost somewhere in the area of 500-750 tickets standing on the corner. After losing so many tickets I moved to the center, now I stay steadily with 1 stack (plenty backups, though). I think it is a matter of personal preference, the title you are going for, or your budget (personally, I don't have a problem with my budget, but I would prefer to get 10-50 or so less Unlucky points per hour [my own research] than lose a bunch of gold).

Since wins and losses are larger in the corner, so is variation. 500-750 tickets is not something to make a conclusion on. Lose 5000-20,000 tickets. Then, divide that by the time it took you to do so. Compare that number to wiki. It'll be close.

In middle circle, you win/lose smaller ammounts, so it seems less. But it's the same, just the streaks are shorter.

Faith Angelis · Feb 24, 2007, 05:58 PM // 17:58

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antheus

Gambling (apart from being a sin) is a dangerous thing.

Well, I've been working in the gambling industry for nearly a decade, so I guess I must be pretty steeped in sin :P

/ontopic

The other difference between corner and centre not noted much here is the difference in variation.

Given that the highest win is available in the corner with a one in nine chance, and the lowest with a two in nine chance, the variation in upkeep cost to stay on the rings is greater, though the mean upkeep cost is the same.

For example, over a sample of 9 chances (for convienience's sake) a corner can expect (on average) to get 3 wins for a total loss of 5 tickets. The centre (on average) can expect to get 5 wins for a total loss again of 5 tickets. So, a run of bad luck affects the corner, with only 3 wins to sacrifice, worse than the centre with five. A run of good luck affects the corner better than the centre.

In short, if you can't stand the 4000 tickets or so needed to outweigh the upkeep variable at the beginning of your time on the rings, and can only afford a few hundred, or a few dozen, the centre will keep you playing longer. This can seem an attractive option if you're just playing for the fun of it, and not for the titles themselves...

Viruzzz · Feb 24, 2007, 07:29 PM // 19:29

Quote:

Originally Posted by Faith Angelis

In short, if you can't stand the 4000 tickets or so needed to outweigh the upkeep variable at the beginning of your time on the rings, and can only afford a few hundred, or a few dozen, the centre will keep you playing longer. This can seem an attractive option if you're just playing for the fun of it, and not for the titles themselves...

The center doesn't give you a longer playing time. they all have equal returns, the 9-ring takes 90 tickets each round and rewards 85 back if you have one player standing on each ring.

if you want to play longer, then do the rings of fortune, much more playing time for the same amount of tickets.

the 9-rings should only be used by people who want luck points at a faster pace.

Faith Angelis · Feb 24, 2007, 08:00 PM // 20:00

Quote:

Originally Posted by Viruzzz

The center doesn't give you a longer playing time. they all have equal returns, the 9-ring takes 90 tickets each round and rewards 85 back if you have one player standing on each ring.

if you want to play longer, then do the rings of fortune, much more playing time for the same amount of tickets.

the 9-rings should only be used by people who want luck points at a faster pace.

I don't think you understood my point; while what you say is true with a large enough sample size to produce a consistant mean return, it doesn't stand true that you will return 85 for every 90 you spend. Over shorter periods, you will experience runs of good luck and bad luck, and with a small number of original tickets, the centre will keep you in play longer due to the lower variable value of the upkeep rate.

ss1986v2 · Feb 24, 2007, 08:22 PM // 20:22

Quote:

Originally Posted by Faith Angelis

I don't think you understood my point; while what you say is true with a large enough sample size to produce a consistant mean return, it doesn't stand true that you will return 85 for every 90 you spend. Over shorter periods, you will experience runs of good luck and bad luck, and with a small number of original tickets, the centre will keep you in play longer due to the lower variable value of the upkeep rate.

faith is right on this one. if you could extend the sample out toward infinity, then the 85 won/90 loss number should hold true. but over shorter durations, with runs of good and bad luck, the lower variation with the center circle should hold to be better (if not better, than a longer duration of play).

but with ppl going afk for up to 3 days with a high volume of tickets in their possession, the corners should be the way to go.

wetsparks · Feb 24, 2007, 09:53 PM // 21:53

Well, even though the samples are not perfect, I can make a little bit of a projection upon my experience. Yesterday I logged on at 2:30, bought 8 stacks of tickets and finally ran out of tickets at 9:10. So I lost about 200 tickets an hour standing in the middle circle. After I found this thread while I was waiting for the fan in my computer to kick off after running Guild Wars for so long, I decided to try the corner square. I bought 10 stacks today so that I could afk for several hours and not worry about running out, and 3 hours later I am up 400 tickets. Even though this isnt as good of a sample size as the 6 hours and 40 minutes yesterday, I think that the higher rewards of the corners are some how a better deal in the medium run I have going right now if you can afford a good amount of stacks to not run out during an unlucky streak.

Edit: 6 hours in and I am up 700 tickets and I'm in the same corner as I started. So even though the math says differently, you seem to gain tickets when standing in a corner and loose tickets standing in the middle.

Second Edit: Since the new build of Guild Wars I've been steadily loosing tickets, so it seems that whatever advantage that was had by being in the corner is gone and is now equal in loosing tickets like the center one was.

Rusty Deth · Feb 25, 2007, 10:41 AM // 10:41

The center ring is for those on a budget...

The conrners are for the high rollers.

And the Rings of Fortune are for poor people in general.

GEXTE · Feb 25, 2007, 10:59 AM // 10:59

I can only say: lol @ this thread!

If you like the middle ring better, go ahead, stand there!
I know though that i will have both titles maxed faster than you guys, lol!

dgb · Feb 25, 2007, 11:05 AM // 11:05

The corners, while being the optimal time/money solution, rely on having a big intiial float as tehre is a much higher chance that you'll go on a bad run wiping you out of the game.

Viruzzz · Feb 25, 2007, 04:18 PM // 16:18

Quote:

Originally Posted by GEXTE

I can only say: lol @ this thread!

If you like the middle ring better, go ahead, stand there!
I know though that i will have both titles maxed faster than you guys, lol!

you'll have the unlucky title maxed sooner, where you stand doesn't affect your lucky title, since the winnings are statistically the same

Faith Angelis · Feb 25, 2007, 05:22 PM // 17:22

Quote:

Originally Posted by dgb

The corners, while being the optimal time/money solution, rely on having a big intiial float as tehre is a much higher chance that you'll go on a bad run wiping you out of the game.

Bingo.....

seekjy · Feb 25, 2007, 11:41 PM // 23:41

As pointed out many times, the expected loss is the same for all circles. The variance is the smallest for the center circle, leading to a much smaller chance of ruin before earning any arbitrary number of tokens.

You will eventually run out of money no matter which circle you pick, but it will more likely, happen sooner in the corners than any other circle.