Curse

Billiard · Mar 28, 2007, 04:34 PM // 16:34

Guild Wars 2 and a Fansite Visit Postscript

Two months ago I was afforded the opportunity to tour the ArenaNet headquarters and meet with various developers. After my visit I drafted up a series of articles about what I had learned, with a primary focus on getting answers out to the community as soon as possible.

Originally I had planned on writing two more articles; one on the development process, and one talking about all of the various miscellaneous pieces of information that I picked up while I was there. Well in the past couple of weeks the community has received some rumored and later some confirmed information about a new expansion well as Guild Wars 2. The release of this information put some of the things I learned at ArenaNet in a new perspective. As such I decided it was probably time for me to draft another article to share some of the information and my interpretation of things.

Now before I go any further I want to say that a lot of what I am writing about is what I’ll call “informed speculation.” What I’ll do is highlight some information, and then give my interpretation of its significance given what has since transpired. Of course the usual caveats remain: nothing can be confirmed as true and accurate until ArenaNet makes a formal announcement. I will also say that none the things I will mention were told to me “off the record,” though a lot of them were parts of various casual conversations. Also I have been talking about bits and pieces of these things in various forums already, so to some extent the purpose of this article is to pull things together and put them all in one place where they will be more readily accessible.

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Guild Wars 2 – What a Surprise?

It was reading the reasons that the devs gave in the PC Gamer article for moving towards Guild Wars 2 that really got me thinking back to the Fansite Community Day two months ago. The article talks about the devs sitting down after the release of Nightfall and deciding to abandon the chapter model and start working on Guild Wars 2. What is interesting is that originally the Fansite Community Day was scheduled for November, but passport issues for the international travelers forced the delay until late January. What the timing of this suggests to me is that perhaps they had originally intended to make an announcement at the Fansite Community Day about GW:EotN and/or Guild Wars 2, but other factors intervened during the delay time. When Nightfall was released it sold really well and in general was well received. People were pretty high on Guild Wars at the time. But as November, December, and January rolled around, some negativity in the community started becoming much more evident. For example, there was a lot of unrest in the PvP community concerning balance issues, the state of HA, changes to the GvG ladder, and the postponement of the Automatic Tournaments. Announcing the change in plans at such a time probably would have caused even more consternation. As the expected time for the Chapter 4 release rolled around though, ArenaNet probably figured they had better make the announcement anyway, hence the release of the information earlier this month. Thinking about it more, it took Guild Wars 5 years to go from the start of development to final release. A lot of the development work was for the proprietary graphics engine upon which Guild Wars is based, which reportedly will be upgraded for Guild Wars 2. Given an estimated release date of 2010 for GW2, if you assume some economies due to modifying an existing engine rather than creating one from scratch, 2006 for a start date seems reasonable.

Playable Races and Level Cap

Other aspects of the PC Gamer article also help to make other pieces of information make more sense. For example, the devs were asked about playable races during the Fansite Community Day. James, the lead dev for GW, was very measured in his response, saying that nothing they have released or discussed to be released in the future includes new playable races. At the time his response made me think that they are at least considering these with future expansions or games, but nothing on the near horizon. Well as it turns out, they probably already knew that playable races would be included in GW2, but didn’t want to say that, nor did they want to even spill the beans that they were even considering GW2 at the time. In contrast to this playable races question, I was asked if I thought raising/removing the level cap would help retain and attract players. At the time I thought this was kind of odd given the nature of the GW system now. In retrospect though, I can see that it was related not to GW, but to GW2.

What’s Going on with Balance?

One of the big issues lately that has been a hot topic in the PvP community has been balance, or the lack thereof. New chapters have brought new classes and new skills, and lately balance changes seem to be few and far between. When I was at ArenaNet I met with Izzy and I also met two more other guys who recently started to work on skill balances. Now one of these guys I have seen around in game and on the forums for a while (Morello), but the other I had not. However since the Fansite Day I have seen quite a bit more attributed to Morello concerning balance issues, and quite a bit less from Izzy. What makes this in particular significant is something the devs told me while we were at ArenaNet. They said that one reason that skill balancing didn’t happen faster was because in addition to working on the current balances, Izzy was also working on balancing new skills. Well at the time I thought this made sense since a new chapter was due out in a couple months. In hindsight, it makes me think that while Izzy may indeed be busy working on new skills for GW: EotN, he may also be more focused on other things related to PvP for GW2. We have some broad ideas concerning what PvE will be like for GW2, but the information is a bit sketchy concerning the PvP side of things. It is my hope that Izzy is working hard on the PvP mechanics of GW2 even now.

Guild Wars the Franchise

Something I have been thinking a lot about lately is Guild Wars the franchise. Now I see a lot of folks comparing the success of Guild Wars to that of WoW, and in turn finding Guild Wars lacking in the comparison. Honestly I think this comparison needs to be put in the proper perspective. The Warcraft franchise is so popular now due in large part to its long history. Warcraft was originally released in 1994, with Warcraft II coming out in 1995. Warcraft III was then not released until 2002. Late fall 2004 World of Warcraft was released in North America, and in early 2005 WoW began being released to the rest of the world. So when you consider that the Warcraft franchise has had 13 years to develop its product and player base, Guild Wars is doing pretty well as the first installment of that franchise and just now approaching its 2nd anniversary. And this brings me to another point: I don’t think ArenaNet ever considered Guild Wars to be a one and done product

When we met with the developers a couple of things were emphasized about how ArenaNet approached things. One was that they are all gamers who gain inspiration from what works and what might not work with other games. The second thing was that they seek constant improvement. At the time I figured that they were talking more about their dedication to constantly improving Guild Wars. But one of them also mentioned to me a couple of times that some of the really successful games out there were not huge successes until their 2nd or 3rd generations. Looking at the PC Gamer article, you can see several mentions of how ArenaNet went against the grain with their business model, and how the chapter system was experimental. These to me highlight something very important that I don’t think a lot of Guild Wars players appreciate: Guild Wars is just the beginning of the franchise, and Guild Wars 2 in all probability is not the end of the franchise. Think about how big Guild Wars is now and compare it to how big Warcraft or Diablo or other titles were when they were first developed. Guild Wars is huge by most comparisons, but especially when compared to the first generation of nearly every other game. ArenaNet went out on a limb with their new business model, and by all accounts it has been a huge success. Sure it is still dwarfed by WoW, but it was not designed nor marketed to be a WoW killer. And this brings me to my last point.

Guild Wars the Beta?

Probably most of you don’t know, but my line of work is business and business development, with particular emphasis on product development. I have a masters of business administration (MBA) and a doctorate in marketing (PhD). So when I was at ArenaNet I asked how come they didn’t promote their product more, especially in mainstream media outlets like WoW was doing. I was pretty astounded to learn that at that time they had no marketing people at all at their headquarters. They had someone who does publicity, they have a couple people who do community relations, but all the marketing was done by NCSoft in Austin. What’s more, they have all these cool hats and shirts and other merchandise for their employees, but none of it is licensed or sold, even though I imagine that there would be a pretty good market for it. For as big as Guild Wars is, to not be promoting it more or licensing the brand for merchandising seemed kind of crazy to me, so I started wondering why they might not be working more to build the brand now.

The reality of it is that Guild Wars has in fact been a huge proof of concept test for a new business model in the game software industry. People complain all the time how ArenaNet doesn’t care about them, or doesn’t do such and such because they already have our money. Well in fact I believe the opposite is true. ArenaNet needs a large player base to prove that their model works, and they need to retain the player base in order to have a launch pad for the rest of the franchise. And this does include both the PvE and PvP sides of the house. The thing is, I don’t think ArenaNet has deep pockets now, nor huge staffing, or even all the right answers for doing things because they are still in the embryonic stages of the franchise. I think they do the best they can with what they have, and I do think that as they progress through the franchise to GW2 and GW3 that it will only get better. So rather than look at Guild Wars and say that the game is maturing and dying out, I think people need to take the perspective that this is just the start of the Guild Wars saga. And like the start of many things, there are going to be some rough edges. But for those who stick it out, the story is going to really develop in the coming years. And when we look back at how things were in 2005, 2006, and 2007 we’ll marvel at how far things have come. In fact just today I noticed that ArenaNet recently hired a director for marketing, and just this morning there is an interview on MSNBC entitled “Guild Wars: An Experiment that Worked.” What’s more, it is subtitled “Hit game may be the most popular MMO you never heard of.” These two things confirm to me that Guild Wars was indeed a trial run for a new business model, that it was indeed seen as a success, and that the company is now pushing on to the next stage where they start promoting their product more and attempt to break out of their niche and into the mainstream market. I think these are great signs for the future of the Guild Wars franchise.

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Billiard is a long time moderator for Guild Wars Guru as well as the leader of Xen of Onslaught, one of the largest guilds in the world with some 500 Guild Wars members. The opinions and ideas expressed here are based on his experience both in the Guild Wars community as well as in his work in product development and marketing and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of GuildWarsGuru.com and its staff.

Symeon · Mar 28, 2007, 05:42 PM // 17:42

Some very interesting thoughts there Billiard - thanks for sharing!

I was particularly captivated by the last section. I agree that a lot of players don't seem to realise the scale of the experiment that Guild Wars has been in the MMO market, and how young the game still is. The release structure and design of the first three 'Chapters' and the wealth of attention that ANet has given its fanbase have ensured a truly commendable birth. The foundations have been laid from which ANet can build upwards and outwards, into what we can hope will be a wide-reaching and highly successful franchise. While I have criticised many of the developers' actions in the past, I am confident that by 'breaking out of their niche and into the mainstream market' (as you put it), they will be ensuring a magnificent future for the Guild Wars saga.

Coridan · Mar 28, 2007, 06:15 PM // 18:15

Excellent read and well written...I am one of those that remember when Warcraft came out....and now that I think about it a bit it was a LONG time ago so i think you are on to something when you say that ANET is still in its first generation of gaming...so when i think about it like that it all makes a bit more sense...and maybe some of the doomsayers will understand things a bit better...

But imo GW2 will be the make or break game for ANET so Good Luck ANET

Grubcat · Mar 28, 2007, 06:24 PM // 18:24

I agree- very well written article, Billiard. I enjoyed reading your notes from the Fansite Community Day and appreciate you finishing them off with this summary. I think (and hope) that your speculation is right on the money, and look forward to many years of GW games from Anet.

dead man ivan · Mar 28, 2007, 08:29 PM // 20:29

Nicely written Billiard. Though I wanted to state that the 1st point you mentioned did seem a bit vague and I don't know if one could ever tell about GW2 and GW:EotN from the information you got.
However, I wish Anet all the success and am glad that this model works for I believe the subscription based model for most other MMORPGs is a bit too expensive especially when you want to take a break from it.

*Darcy* · Mar 28, 2007, 08:59 PM // 20:59

Great job as usual, Billiard, thank you for the insights.

Glad to hear they are getting into marketing. Will now await an announcement that GW shirts, hats and posters are available for purchase. That would give them a cash infusion.

Darksun · Mar 29, 2007, 04:01 AM // 04:01

Very nice Billiard!

You echoed a lot of my sentiments about the actual success of Guild Wars compared to the Perceived success. I am highly impressed by what they have done, and the quality of the product.

arcanemacabre · Mar 29, 2007, 05:42 AM // 05:42

Quote:

Originally Posted by Billiard

Something I have been thinking a lot about lately is Guild Wars the franchise. Now I see a lot of folks comparing the success of Guild Wars to that of WoW, and in turn finding Guild Wars lacking in the comparison. Honestly I think this comparison needs to be put in the proper perspective. The Warcraft franchise is so popular now due in large part to its long history. Warcraft was originally released in 1994, with Warcraft II coming out in 1995. Warcraft III was then not released until 2002. Late fall 2004 World of Warcraft was released in North America, and in early 2005 WoW began being released to the rest of the world. So when you consider that the Warcraft franchise has had 13 years to develop its product and player base, Guild Wars is doing pretty well as the first installment of that franchise and just now approaching its 2<sup>nd</sup> anniversary.

Great perspective view on this, Billiard! This is something I think a lot of people overlook. It is a very rare thing indeed to have the first of a franchise be as successful as Guild Wars, and almost right from the beginning! The business model was gutsy, and it worked well. It seems that GW2 will more directly compete in the MMO market, and as good as they did with their first release, I have a feeling GW2 will leave all other MMOs in it's dust.

It feels good to be a part of something that may well become a video game empire.

Angel Netherborn · Mar 29, 2007, 08:08 AM // 08:08

thanks for the insights! food for thought

lyra_song · Mar 29, 2007, 01:42 PM // 13:42

Wow really?

No wonder we havent had GW action figures yet...

...........

I should start casting those figurines i made.....

Nekretaal · Mar 29, 2007, 02:00 PM // 14:00

Quote:

Originally Posted by Billiard

So when I was at ArenaNet I asked how come they didn’t promote their product more, especially in mainstream media outlets like WoW was doing. I was pretty astounded to learn that at that time they had no marketing people at all at their headquarters.

This explains a lot.

Nightfall didnt sell to many players outside the GW community: It was "lost in the noise" of high profile releases like Neverwinter Nights and World of Warcraft Burning Crusade (which hadnt had its release date bumped yet).... not to mention the even more heavily hyped Gears of War, Final Fantasy XII, Playstation 3, and Nintendo Wii.

Nightfall is a good game, and its a standalone game that works as an introduction to guild wars. It has a lengthy campain and doesnt feel like an expansion (like factions), and it derserved marketing attention, but the neither the gaming media didnt give it much attention, and the reviews of the game on websites like gamspot/IGN/Kotaku came weeks too late, after the game had begun its sales freefall. The game also never got the "free marketing" from retailers like Gamestop and Best buy (such as advantageous placement in stores and ads).

Three weeks after the release, the game was over (saleswise). Compared to similar PC RPG games like Marvel: Ultimate Alliance, or Neverwinter Nights, which received similar critical scores and continued to sell, the sales of nightfall have to be seen as a dissapointment. It's probably the sales of Nightfall which force anet to scrap chapter 4, and turn the already completed work into GW:EN.

I hope anet gets its act together on marketing in time for Guild wars 2. The games were strong enoght to deliver on the hype, so hire a marketing department and hype them already.

Demilikos · Mar 29, 2007, 02:38 PM // 14:38

I wondered why I kept coming back to these forums and looking through all the speculations. This was the thread I was looking for and now I have more insight on ArenaNet.

Thank you for pointing out that ArenaNet never hired anyone for marketing. Playing the game since the betas, I only ever got people to know GW existed by word of mouth (or buying them the game myself). I was just recently wondering why GW/Anet shirts and merchandise don't seem to exist. I've traveled and lived through many countries and US states and I've yet to encounter a gamer that has played GW (as big as we like to think it is, from being out in the world GW seemed a failure with popularity).

That news article is a hope for a better, more profitable future and lots of great gameplay coming from ArenaNet. I hope they keep it up.

EternalTempest · Mar 29, 2007, 03:07 PM // 15:07

Thank you for posting this, a very good article.
You mention something about anet that crossed my mind / was wondering about.

Especially true about the marketing. How many times did Gaile mention about Charr slippers

and they would sell.

Lord Azhren · Mar 29, 2007, 04:42 PM // 16:42

It's about time someone said something to counter all of the negativity that is spreading throughout the GW community! I've heard many people call GW "a poor man's WoW". I think most people never knew that GW was an experiment and the fact that GW, a franchise that is just off the ground, is even being compared to a game such as WoW, which is well established and popular all around the world, is proof of it's success. If GW is in the same arena with games like WoW while it's still in it's infancy, just imagine how it will be compared when the experiment is over. I think WoW is in for some serious competition in the not too distant future.

Shmanka · Mar 29, 2007, 05:49 PM // 17:49

Quote:

Originally Posted by Billiard

People complain all the time how ArenaNet doesn’t care about them, or doesn’t do such and such because they already have our money. Well in fact I believe the opposite is true. ArenaNet needs a large player base to prove that their model works, and they need to retain the player base in order to have a launch pad for the rest of the franchise. And this does include both the PvE and PvP sides of the house. The thing is, I don’t think ArenaNet has deep pockets now, nor huge staffing, or even all the right answers for doing things because they are still in the embryonic stages of the franchise.

This explains or gives good reasoning to believe one side of the argument, yet I think some parts mentioned here are still inexcusable. The game itself has gone through a beta and three campaigns with honorable mentions from champs themselves and thoughtfully done posts on message boards across the community. Early stages of the franchise or not, Arena Net was based off franchises they had made for Blizzard from core people. The larger player base helps but only in ratio. If 10 GvG teams abused Searing Flames out of a possible 100 teams, and 1,000 teams abused Searing Flames out of a possible 10,000 this still does not help them whatsoever. It gives them satisfaction that variety is most likely placed in the other 9,000 but that can still be untrue. You do not need to have a higher player base to understand the "balance" a game of this calibur has. Grand Theft Auto has multiple cheats for whatever purpose you want and only one player. Is that balanced? Is there a challange in skill?

Pointed also that I believe staffing was a problem for Arena Net in the past and they made a decision to eliminate "drama in the workplace" while during that time period I believe alot of PvP'ers were satisfied but concerned. When this staff changement occured it became a comedy fest in most areas of the game. To be honest if Izzy and his staff are "balancing" for the future of Guild Wars 2, I have lost all hope in Arena Net. Avatar of Grenth

Keep on rollin'

thelegendozelda · Mar 29, 2007, 06:30 PM // 18:30

2010? 0-0 i'll be dead by then.....

HalPlantagenet · Mar 29, 2007, 10:00 PM // 22:00

Quote:

Originally Posted by thelegendozelda

2010? 0-0 i'll be dead by then.....

LOL. I've known more than a few VCs (Venture Capitalists) who took similar statements as their mottos. Phrased differently: "if I don't see a return on my investment in 2 years, it's not worth doing."

Many thanks for the perspicacious article. I was particularly pleased to read that Arenanet is hiring marketing staff (and no, I am not nor have I ever been a marketeer myself.) It seems to me that Arenanet has a very compelling story to tell, both for the near term as well as the long term and that the way in which EOTN and GW2 have been announced did not take advantage of a signal opportunity.

Another challenge they face is learning how to make the most effective use of their existing community. It could be that more structured discussions could provide much useful information, particularly at this stage of development.

Finally, I was particularly appreciative of the way the article placed the history of Guild Wars product development in proper context with that of competitive products. Of course, it alludes to phenomenal creativity and productivity, but perhaps more interestingly, is the fact that it remains a very young franchise in that context. The next several years will be very interesting to observe both in terms of their product and their evolution as a business.

Goast · Mar 29, 2007, 11:58 PM // 23:58

I'l have all my charters titles maxed out,and I will have a kick A-- computer waiting for GW2. See you there.

ChiaraDonovan · Mar 30, 2007, 12:28 AM // 00:28

Good article. Apart from having no Marketing focus (back then) I think they were very much a technology driven bunch of guys - and still may be.

That this was all one big expiriment feels kind of correctly. The chapters did not feel like a good business plan to build the future on. I strongly feel GuildWars kind of "happened", instead of being planned to be where it is today.

Hopefully GW2 will correct that and a good Product Manager will secure the future in such a way that the transition to GW3 is less painful.

LifeInfusion · Mar 30, 2007, 03:22 AM // 03:22

well put. I think your insight is very well needed in this forum and can help to quell some of the fears and concerns players have.

Not to diminish the commentary, but I disagree with your assessment of the MSNBC article. The quotes are attributed to NCSoft's Garriott and Arenanet's Jeff Strain. Neither are marketing.

Here's to arguing technicalities and semantics.