Curse

HawkofStorms · Sep 26, 2007, 05:46 AM // 05:46

Sigh, do we really need any more conspiracy threads about lockpicks not working right? I mean, none of these posts ever have any factually backing. They are always started by people who feel like they are getting screwed.

You know why that is? People who get good runs of luck with lockpicks don't start threads to complain about them.

strcpy · Sep 26, 2007, 05:50 AM // 05:50

Quote:

Originally Posted by combatchuck

This is why they say "the house always wins". Because once you're out, you can't gamble any more. There's a reason they call it a gamble. If they evened the odds, the potential reward would be less valuable.

It's been too many years to remember the exact number, but the casino only has a VERY small advantage, much less than 5% (IIRC under 2%) and yet you will loose over a long period of time pretty much everything. However, this small a number tends to allow an occasional winner to emerge, but over all you will always remember loosing when you chance is under 50% because you *are* loosing.

It's interesting to note that one of the most successful roulette "cheaters" (they kept tract of where the ball landed over hundreds of thousands of spins and noticed bias in where the ball landed - casinos call it cheat the rest of us call it smart playing) had between a 55-60% chance of winning and *still* needed in the hundred of thousands of dollars in capital to absorb consecutive losses.

A small percentage like that means you can only win in the short term. Yesterday I finally used up my "lucky lockpick" on it's 15'th or 16'th chest so those long streaks are out there, just no one ever starts a thread to complain about it. Even with a true random number it may take thousands or hundreds of thousands of samples before you get to true, let alone the pseudo random numbers computers use. Many of them *only* get there with really large samples.

Winterclaw · Sep 26, 2007, 06:50 AM // 06:50

Quote:

Originally Posted by HawkofStorms

I mean, none of these posts ever have any factually backing. They are always started by people who feel like they are getting screwed.

You'd have to actually record what you get from your picks, how often do they break, and what your stated retention rate is to have some factual basis. If enough people were willing to commit to such an endeavor then we'd might get a large enough sample to see if the stated rate is correct.

Quote:

Originally Posted by HawkofStorms

You know why that is? People who get good runs of luck with lockpicks don't start threads to complain about them.

QFT.

BTW, to the person who said that if you tossed 100 coins and got an 80% rate of heads: with a large enough statistical sample you can patterns and if it's really working. For example if I tossed a coin 10,000 times and got tails 80% of the time, I'd be starting to think that the coin is off balance. If that rate continued to 20K, I'd really be thinking something is wrong. While the results will never actually be what they are stated (50% for the coin), over time they should start to get close to that number.

Arcane_Penguin · Sep 26, 2007, 07:39 AM // 07:39

Quote:

Originally Posted by Corwin_Andros

All of my lockpicks work perfectly. Each and every one of them gets me a guaranteed 750gp at the merchant.

woah! that's terrible luck! I get 1.2k from players!

Senrath · Sep 26, 2007, 10:51 AM // 10:51

Quote:

Originally Posted by A11Eur0

You started out well, but ended on a dud.

Yeah, I realize that I wasn't exactly the clearest I should've been. I meant that the probability of retaining a certain number of lockpicks is much smaller than people would expect.

oljomo · Sep 26, 2007, 11:19 AM // 11:19

Okay, I posted this back when GWEN came out and people said it's just randomness. SHortly after that I got 20k/2k even for luck/unlucky title. Now a few weeks later I have 39,250k and 4,800, a huge difference, latly I've been retaining one lockpick for every 4-6 failed, and this is with a now gained 49% retaining. Anyone else noticing weird ness with this?

ermmmm, 20k/2k is bang on for a 50% retention rate, meaning that you were actually getting lucky for that.

39250 vs 4800 is a bad spell of luck however, definately not far outside teh percentages expected. for 4800 unlucky points, you would expect about 47000 lucky points, (maybe slightly less) and considering streaks go on for about 10 pick openings easily witha 50% chance, your definately not far outside teh realms of possibility (although slightly unlucky indeed, assuming you have only opened gwen locked chests and no hard mode ones)

If you have opened any hard mode chests, then you are still lucky and doing well.

silara_jorinset · Sep 26, 2007, 11:55 AM // 11:55

Meh, every time we get into random tertitory I see this.
I play an online version of a dice based minature game and the site forums constantly have people ranting about luck and even saying the java language random number generator is broken.
Personally I've never seen anything to particular suggest its broken. Even a sample rate of 300 is pretty small considering that the seeds in random number generators run into 30,000 + numbers.
In games I've seen runs where everything breaks but also had ones where I've opened every chest in cathedral of flames on two lockpicks at 50% (giving the question from a guildie "Wow many lockpicks do you have?"

Ruby Lightheart · Sep 26, 2007, 11:57 AM // 11:57

Quote:

Originally Posted by wolfwing

Oh come on, please Senrath...don't give me BS. Show me someone who retains 80% of their lockpicks on a regular basis and I might believe you. Thats the defense all the time, it's just a base 50% chance every time. If 100 people flip a coin and it lands 80% heads for all of them, would you call it random chance? Or assume the coins fixed?

Well....i retain around 75% of my lock picks on a Adept Treasure Hunter title. It could possibly be higher but i have stopped buying the lock picks in GWEN cause sadly 98% of the drops are crap

Commander Ryker · Sep 26, 2007, 12:06 PM // 12:06

Quote:

Originally Posted by Winterclaw

BTW, to the person who said that if you tossed 100 coins and got an 80% rate of heads: with a large enough statistical sample you can patterns and if it's really working. For example if I tossed a coin 10,000 times and got tails 80% of the time, I'd be starting to think that the coin is off balance. If that rate continued to 20K, I'd really be thinking something is wrong. While the results will never actually be what they are stated (50% for the coin), over time they should start to get close to that number.

I just read recently that coins are off balance because the heads side is heaver.

therangereminem · Sep 26, 2007, 01:01 PM // 13:01

Quote:

Originally Posted by Corwin_Andros

All of my lockpicks work perfectly. Each and every one of them gets me a guaranteed 750gp at the merchant.

lol what merchant are you selling too!!

when i open a chest 1 out of 5 area gold most gold are worth anywhere from

300g to500g and purples like 150 to 300

so how are you getting 750 everytime,

orr wait do you mean your selling your lock picks that drop for youto merchant! that could be!!!!! you do know its east to sell them for 1k in any major city. pm me i will buy all

therangereminem · Sep 26, 2007, 01:14 PM // 13:14

one last thing about the chance for lockpicks you all are lookign at it the wrong way

say if you have a 60% chance to retain. this is how its done in game

you have a number line (whatever anet uses mostlikey its different with high percents) but say 20

ao you would asign 12 numbers to retain and 8 to not retain. (as this is whata computer progam would do) then it will draw a number out of a hat if it lands on a number in the grouping of the retain you would retain. and so on

also the way you are looking at it the prsents it gives you for retainig whould enver matter. its bad to use a coin for this example. if you would look at it that way you would always have a 49.3333333333333333333 chance to retain. but ths is not the case you have two things to look at retain not retain and the percent you have on your toon.(thus it's making you tip nthe scale to your favor) thats why you need to do more then just head i win tails i loose.

its more 1,2,3,4,5,6 i win 7,8,9,10 i loose(605 chance)

hope this helps, btw i have a 68% chance to retain i did 100 chest retained 67 chests so that was a 67.8 about retained.and always pick tails you have about a 65% chance to get tails sence it weighs more on the face side. somethigni learned from math class

Aeon221 · Sep 26, 2007, 06:38 PM // 18:38

Law of Large Numbers. Go to wikipedia, check it out. Maybe take a stats class.

Jeez, I should get a friggen bridge.

Healers Wisper · Sep 26, 2007, 07:36 PM // 19:36

you guys, the game isn't broken and there is no conspiracy theory. You just haven't opened enough chests to make a valid observation. with the statistics generated here, you would need a sample size of several thousand to even begin to evaluate the %. If you truely want to test this, we can get 100 players with the same % to open 100 chests. then we can run the statistics and see if they are lying. But the fact is you are only seeing a small fraction of the sample nessesary to see the whole result.

Then you need to test if there is a difference or if you results are random. I do an excersize in my class, I teach statistics, and it amazes people that if you flip a coin 10 times and get heads 8 out of those ten times that you are still statistically = 50%. At 100 flips, you get better but I belive 72% heads is still acceptable. It isn't until you flip around 10,000 times that the error becomes less then 1 or 2%. That is why mendel grew over a million pea plants to come up with his theory of inheritance.

increase your numbers and then we'll talk, 100 chest isn't even close

Diddy bow · Sep 26, 2007, 07:49 PM // 19:49

What would be weird would be if no one had bad luck XD.

Tarkin · Sep 26, 2007, 08:49 PM // 20:49

For 228 chests i have 122 losts and 106 retain with a start from 47% (1/3) and the last ones with 50% (2/3)...

106 retain from 228 is 47%... close of 50%... its nice to me... how more chest i will open more close of 50% i will go...

I waste 152k in keys and get back a bit less or a bit more in cash back... the pain is the purples...

Tarkin · Sep 26, 2007, 08:58 PM // 20:58

Quote:

Originally Posted by Corwin_Andros

All of my lockpicks work perfectly. Each and every one of them gets me a guaranteed 750gp at the merchant.

Try to sell by 1200... in sell chat...

Cale Roughstar · Sep 26, 2007, 10:21 PM // 22:21

I think that in several threads discussing this, the general consensus has been that it is all up to chance. You have exactly the same chance of retaining this time as you did last time. I suggest the book Chaos, Coincidences and all that Math Jazz. Another common conclusion: GW:EN chests are not worth the lockpicks.

Last night I started running some HM Boreas Seabed Chests, and was gettin some decent drops, and my pick retention was about what it should be. I only got one purple, and one regular warrior tome, but the elite ranger tome that I got should offset the price of the keys.

So HM is where my lockpicks will stay, not the goldsink/grape-vine that are EotN chests.