Curse

Lord Sojar · Nov 26, 2007, 10:13 AM // 10:13

Pick a number between 0 and 0. Give up? It's i + the interval of i X i/ i^5 - sqrt (i). Here, have another Jade Armor.

pumpkin pie · Nov 26, 2007, 10:32 AM // 10:32

don't open 2 presents in the same day... maybe... possibly won't give you a streak of same one in different day, or maybe the random ness is monday Jade Armor, tuesday necrid horseman... et cetera.... hrmzzz okay maybe monday is Hydra ... blah, NO REPEATS OF MINI PETS GRRRRR.......

tmakinen · Nov 26, 2007, 11:02 AM // 11:02

Quote:

Originally Posted by strcpy

I would have imagined that different types of loot have different ways they are determined.

The latest opportunity to test this just passed as the Thanksgiving weekend wrapped up (I think). The special weekend content is always uploaded some time in advance and events happen on a timer. Concerning the loot issue, special loot that only drops during the event in question is added to other loot, i.e., a Hard Apple Cider doesn't replace the standard loot of a monster but drops in addition to whatever else the monster has (or possibly instead, if the basic drop is loot scaled - special drops are exempt from loot scaling). An additional fact is that monsters have always had the ability to drop multiple items in one go, although I think that only bosses normally do that.

So, let's say that a particular event ends today at 12 P.M. If I enter an explorable at 10 P.M. then wait for 3 hours before starting to kill monsters, they will still drop special loot for me although somebody else who entered the explorable 3 hours later than me won't be getting any, because they are not generated any more. Thus, the special loot were generated when the instance was created and the monsters have been carrying them meanwhile.

Strictly speaking, this only proves that the special loot is generated when an instance is created. However, if we consider the potential mechanisms for generating the loot, it is apparent that a create-at-initiation mechanism requires more server resources than a create-when-killed mechanism (for starters, you have to keep tabs on all the loot for the entire existence of an instance, even on those monsters that never actually get killed). Since the special loot is a tacked on feature on top of the normal loot creation mechanism, it wouldn't make any sense to create a separate and more resource intensive mechanism for that alone if there is already another mechanism available (a case where special loot was determined on a kill would be easier to argue in favor of a separate mechanism). The highly probable conclusion is that special loot is predetermined because it is created by the same mechanism that creates the normal loot.

Cebe · Nov 26, 2007, 01:11 PM // 13:11

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trub

baby wallows are the best mini in the game..

<3

I always wanted to be able to display more than 1 at a time. An Army of Mini Wallows would own...

...if they could use skills.

IslandHermet · Nov 26, 2007, 02:26 PM // 14:26

I think I have the Op beat 8 characters total all 1st year presents.

6 mini siege turtles
1 mini shiro
1 mini Krin

open 3 presents on 1 day and 3 the day after, about week later opened the last 2.
not complanin since I knew I would get shafted on the mini pets as presents I went ahead and bought 1 of each mini 1st and 2nd year.

My assumptions were right.
seems to be a big bug in the mini pets, I have 1 more char for 1st year comeing up and am a month or 2 away from getting my 2nd years presents and am only waiting for 4-5 windriders of something like that LOL.

pkodyssey · Nov 26, 2007, 03:05 PM // 15:05

My brothers account. He opened 4 presents in 1 day.

Hydra
Hydra
Hydra
Shiro

WTH is that all about?

The "random" generator is not very well thought out. There are so many whites, that the odds are against this occuring on the scale it apparently is.

I believe that anet needs to use a better randomizer algorithm.

PS... TRUB, everyone knows that mini-pigs are the king of all other mini's.

Abnaxus · Nov 26, 2007, 03:09 PM // 15:09

Quote:

Originally Posted by IslandHermet

I think I have the Op beat 8 characters total all 1st year presents.

6 mini siege turtles
1 mini shiro
1 mini Krin

open 3 presents on 1 day and 3 the day after, about week later opened the last 2.

In another thread, a user related a similar experience:

http://www.guildwarsguru.com/forum/s...17&postcount=1

It seems that opening multiple presents in short time increases the probability to get the same mini.

Now we need to know if someone experienced the opposite, that is someone who received different pets opening 3 or more presents in a short timeframe.

lyra_song · Nov 26, 2007, 03:11 PM // 15:11

Quote:

Originally Posted by pkodyssey

My brothers account. He opened 4 presents in 1 day.

Hydra
Hydra
Hydra
Shiro

WTH is that all about?

The "random" generator is not very well thought out. There are so many whites, that the odds are against this occuring on the scale it apparently is.

I believe that anet needs to use a better randomizer algorithm.

Um...but its a "random" with odds.

If you want competely random, there should be no levels of pet rarity (white/purple/gold/green), it would all be the same.

Mordakai · Nov 26, 2007, 03:14 PM // 15:14

Wow, I've only gotten two of the same pet once (a year apart, on different characters). I have 13 characters.

I think that the people who get multiple copies of Mini-pets are more likely to "report" it on the internet, as so it looks like it happens all the time..

when, in fact, it's probably just a small percentage of the overall GW playerbase.

MirkoTeran · Nov 26, 2007, 03:24 PM // 15:24

Its almost funny to see how many people have no idea what random is...

lyra_song · Nov 26, 2007, 03:27 PM // 15:27

I made a little "rarity dartboard". If you randomly threw a dart at it without aiming, whats the percent of getting a white? purple? gold? green? Yes its random, but theres still a certain % of chance.

If you landed on green 10000000000000x in a row, is that random? Yes.
If you landed on a different spot everytime, is that random? Yes.

edit:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

Abnaxus · Nov 26, 2007, 03:36 PM // 15:36

Quote:

Originally Posted by MirkoTeran

Its almost funny to see how many people have no idea what random is...

And would be funny as well to receive a lesson from you about:

1. what random really is
2. what mistakes people have done here about random

pkodyssey · Nov 26, 2007, 03:48 PM // 15:48

Screw random, I frankly could care less about the little word game this thread has going. Call it odds, random, whatever...

It sucks arss, to get the same thing over and over. If it happened to "you", you would be complaining too.

How would you like to get the same christmas gift from everyone this year. It would suck. No, "you" would go, oh that was random, or the odds were not on my side, or whatever, and smile about it and be happy. (/sarcasm in-case you missed it)

Anet needs to fix this crap. They know its f'd up but they wont do a dam thing about it because they need to fix a spelling mistake in the on-line store instead. Better yet they don't have the resorces becasue GW2 is taking up all their time.

Excuses, excuses, excuses...

Abnaxus · Nov 26, 2007, 03:48 PM // 15:48

Quote:

Originally Posted by lyra_song

[IMG]I made a little "rarity dartboard". If you randomly threw a dart at it without aiming, whats the percent of getting a white? purple? gold? green? Yes its random, but theres still a certain % of chance.

If you landed on green 10000000000000x in a row, is that random? Yes.
If you landed on a different spot everytime, is that random? Yes.

edit:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

We're not discussing about this.

We're all aware that white, purple, gold and green "probably" have different weights in the random generator, hence the difference in rarity.

We are all aware that in a "real" random sequence, there is no correlation between the results. So any sequence has the same probability as all others.
I think we're not incurring in Gambler's fallacy.

All of you assume that GW software behaves like a perfect random generator.
This is your assumption.
Some people are raising doubts about that.

Instead of giving unrequested considerations about people ignorance in what is random, please give us evidence that this GW software reproduces a perfect random number generator.

lyra_song · Nov 26, 2007, 04:01 PM // 16:01

Quote:

Originally Posted by Abnaxus

All of you assume that GW software behaves like a perfect random generator.
This is your assumption.
Some people are raising doubts about that.

Instead of giving unrequested considerations about people ignorance in what is random, please give us evidence that this GW software reproduces a perfect random number generator.

No software will ever behave perfectly randomly, as already pointed out before in this thread.

The fact that some people are seeing "patterns" however is still the gambler's fallacy because no matter how many times you get the same thing in a row, it is still acceptable because randomness does not exclude this, even if the random generator is not perfect.

12345678910 is still a random pattern.
11111111111 is still a random pattern.

If you think you start seeing predictable things, you are falling into the gambler's fallacy.

My own experience with the presents has been nothing but randomness.
Your own experience might be a pattern.
What can we prove with this?

Theres zero evidence that the random number generator is broken because even if you got the same exact thing 10000000x in a row, that still is acceptable in what is the definition of random

Kusandaa · Nov 26, 2007, 04:13 PM // 16:13

Heh, I've gotten so far...

1st year:
Fungal Wallow x3 (necro, assassin, paragon mule)
Troll x2 (warrior, dervish)
Necrid Horseman (mesmer mule)
Rurik (monk)
Bone Dragon (ranger)
Charr Shaman (nuker)

The only 2nd year I have so far is the Fire Imp (necro), waiting 2 months or so for warrior's second birthday.

Tired of getting wallows >_>. Have no use for them, can't sell, can't give them away... lol. Was happy with the bone dragon, always wanted one. Took me forever to sell the Rurik though I tend to keep whatever I get except for doubles... just wish it'd be more... reasonable? on how they give pets away.

Mordakai · Nov 26, 2007, 05:13 PM // 17:13

It sounds like people don't want a random generator.

They want a generator that guarantees a different mini-pet each time, which would be much more complex, and in the end, I think unwarranted. (ie, you would have less chance to get Greens, Golds and Purples, because once you got one on your account, you wouldn't get another until all others were given out.)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kusandaa

Heh, I've gotten so far...

1st year:
Fungal Wallow x3 (necro, assassin, paragon mule)
Troll x2 (warrior, dervish)
Necrid Horseman (mesmer mule)
Rurik (monk)
Bone Dragon (ranger)
Charr Shaman (nuker)

You get 6 whites, 1 green, 1 gold and 1 purple out of 9 pets, and you're complaining?

Give me a freakin' break.

lyra_song · Nov 26, 2007, 05:25 PM // 17:25

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mordakai

It sounds like people don't want a random generator.

They want a generator that guarantees a different mini-pet each time, which would be much more complex, and in the end, I think unwarranted. (ie, you would have less chance to get Greens, Golds and Purples, because once you got one on your account, you wouldn't get another until all others were given out.)

THeres a thread on sardelac like that.

Basically its like a deck of cards....one you get a card, it isn't returned to the deck, and the deck is reshuffled.

Its an interesting idea, but hardly fair for people with only a few characters.

It rewards players with a LOT of characters.

While you could say the current system does the same, the fact that under such a system, rare items increase in chance the more chances you have is unfair.

MirkoTeran · Nov 26, 2007, 05:32 PM // 17:32

Quote:

Originally Posted by Abnaxus

1. what random really is
2. what mistakes people have done here about random

1. Anwserd a few times in this very thread but still; sequence of items (numbers) not describable deterministic pattern(s). But here we are talking about pseudo-random-numbers. Fell free to wiki the things about random and pseudorandom numbers, as I don't feel the need to copy/paste them here.
2. For start a lot of people think the numbers are 'fair' and not random. Then people forget that even with pseudo-randomness there is still weight associated with each pet.

On a plus not, its a nice thing to see a few people actually understand the point of this all.

Gigashadow · Nov 26, 2007, 05:33 PM // 17:33

This happens in every game, people get all confused when they see something a bunch a few times in a row on separate occasions, post a thread about it, a few other people say "me too!", and then you get a giant thread of uninformed people complaining they now have "proof" the random number generator is bugged.

Enough people have pointed out the fallacy in this, so if you don't understand by now why you are wrong, you probably never will, and you will continue to believe in such superstitions and post stupid bullshit. There is just no educating some people.

There are a bazillion server side events that use the random number generator on any particular server box, and these are continually happening. They include damage numbers for player and mob attacks, etc.

If you think that getting the same minipet 3 times in a row means the random number generator is bugged, not only does it mean that you think the random number generator itself is bugged, but it also means that you believe that no other events share that generator; i.e. you think that your character has a persisted personal random number generator unique to your character that is used solely for generating your minipets.