Curse

qwe4rty · Sep 03, 2007, 02:20 PM // 14:20

Just wondering if anyone else has noticed this. Going through GW:EN, I used 5 lockpicks on chests that said I had a 40% chance to retain the pick. After 5 attempts, and not one remained fixed, I'm wondering if the coding is a little bit messed up. The chance that this could happen is about 7% (.6*.6*.6*.6*.6), but before I go and use anymore, I want to know if its just a really bad string of luck, or if anyone else has encountered this problem.

Pkest · Sep 03, 2007, 02:24 PM // 14:24

I've successfully retained several in Gw:en areas. Just luck of the draw. Losing 5 of 5 is not statistically significant.

«Ripskin · Sep 03, 2007, 02:28 PM // 14:28

Out of the 20 lock picks I've bought, I have opened maybe 30 chests.

And all of them were purple.

Come on now...

Antheus · Sep 03, 2007, 02:35 PM // 14:35

Quote:

The chance that this could happen is about 7% (.6*.6*.6*.6*.6)

Yep.

It's not 0.0%.

These are independent experiments. You can have an infinite number of them, even if the chance for that is small.

And yes, this is known as string of bad luck. Nobody would think twice if they used the same lock-pick 5 times in a row.

Dingo Dave · Sep 03, 2007, 02:37 PM // 14:37

How about this for luck - in one run I used it 5 times successfully and got 3 golds!

MYSTERYouse · Sep 03, 2007, 02:38 PM // 14:38

I got about 60 LP starting at sneak peak weekend and was able to raise my TH title from 1167 to 1256 and I still have 4 lockpicks in my inv.

BTW. My retention rate is 60%

And I got a lot of gold items ... some of them are crap, but found some *gems* too...

Malice Black · Sep 03, 2007, 02:38 PM // 14:38

My stats

50 picks - 50 chests - kept 10 - 50 purples

50 chests 50 purples is beyond bad luck.

Fix it.

wilderness · Sep 03, 2007, 02:49 PM // 14:49

Over the last three days:

I've opened around 50-60k chests while clearing asura areas, out of those I've had around 25 gold drops.

I started with 12 lockpicks, bought 10 and now I have 3.

heavyduty · Sep 03, 2007, 02:57 PM // 14:57

I noticed using lockpicks (120k now) in gw:en resulted in mainly purples and retaining the picks is very bad compared to experiences in the other chapters. My friend and I were wondering if anet messed up the ratios.

Commander Ryker · Sep 03, 2007, 03:46 PM // 15:46

All I've gotten from chests in gw:en have been purple. I'm not opening any more.

Taki · Sep 03, 2007, 03:48 PM // 15:48

My brother thought the lockpicks were bugged for another reason. He managed to retain the same lockpick 5 times at the default probability, whatever that is without any of the titles that increase it. 10%? 20%? Don't know if he got anything worthwhile from the chests though.

qwe4rty · Sep 03, 2007, 04:14 PM // 16:14

Yeah, I've taken statistics and realize that 7% isn't significant, but such a string of bad luck is at least some indication that the trend may follow. Was just wondering if other people had noticed this too so I could save my money.

heavyduty · Sep 03, 2007, 04:28 PM // 16:28

I forgot to add, I opened more gold items and success at retaining the lockpick during the preview event. In the same areas as before, it went strangely downhill. It's almost as if an antifarm code was put into the chests as more and more people open them in certain areas.

lacasner · Sep 03, 2007, 04:36 PM // 16:36

This isn't only GWEN chests..I've opened quite a few margonite and "ice floe" chests (roughly 40-50 in each area) and gotten a vast majority of purples (46% retention rate). Something is messed up.

blackknight1337 · Sep 03, 2007, 05:19 PM // 17:19

Here's what I've seen from day one on my monk, who is my chestrunner. Running normal mode chests, I seem to get streaks of purples and golds, more streaks of purples then golds of course. Sometimes I might get 3 golds in a row, streaks of 5-10 purples are very common these days, especially in tyria. Retention rate since Gw:en came out has been ridiculously horrible, I retain maybe 20% and I have 51% retain rate....

Personally I think that the lockpick retention is bugged, in both modes, for the last 2-3 weeks. The retention rate for me is about 1/4 to 1/2 of what it should be in both modes, and the purple rate lately is astounding. I won't even get into why purples even drop out of HM chests, thats another topic for another thread.

But I think based on what I've seen and what I've seen a lot of other people saying, lockpick retention should get some attention cause it ain't working right.

ne33us · Sep 03, 2007, 05:26 PM // 17:26

Just a question/thought

Could it be that high XP characters get mostly crap items/rewards ??

I had to ask that because using my warrior (main character, titles and stuff), who is a 6.5M XP character, I mostly get crap items opening chests with him.
With my other characters I mostly get golden items while opening chests.
I haven't done a statistical analysis on that but ... i feel my warrior is a jinx if nothing else is wrong.

I even stopped doing chests runs with my warrior because the "treasure" in the "Adept Treasure Hunter" title seemed rediculous while getting all those purple items.

Antheus · Sep 03, 2007, 06:09 PM // 18:09

Quote:

Just a question/thought

Could it be that high XP characters get mostly crap items/rewards ??

No - GW:EN content is Normal Mode. Drops there suck, just like they suck in Tyria NM.

I have hard time finding anything maxed out, let alone purple, gold is an even to celebrate. Chests are the same.

Buzzer · Sep 03, 2007, 06:21 PM // 18:21

Quote:

Originally Posted by lacasner

This isn't only GWEN chests..I've opened quite a few margonite and "ice floe" chests (roughly 40-50 in each area) and gotten a vast majority of purples (46% retention rate). Something is messed up.

Chests in normal mode never gave many golds. I dont see what the problem is.

wolfwing · Sep 03, 2007, 06:21 PM // 18:21

I don't know I find you get worse drops in hard mode...gee a book that allows me to learn any monknon elite skill I've unlocked...wait...I can just go buy it from any vendor WOW!

wolfwing · Sep 03, 2007, 06:23 PM // 18:23

I think the issue here is that anywhere else lockpicks are an optional key that you can retain, in GWEN there is no choice, so the drops should be a bit more equal to the price, most of the drops you find in GW:EN chests for 1.5k lockpicks are the same ones you would find in a 600 key chest. 2.5*'s the price but no better drops.