Curse

Clarissa F · Dec 21, 2007, 02:40 PM // 14:40

It's RA, so you have a good chance of getting monks, wammos, sins and rangers. a good portion of people who farm titles are monks, so there's always a good chance of at least one monk on your team.

Chance, as said before, is random. Besides, for Anet to make a program that keeps track of everyone's drop rate would take time and money, and Anet "be all bout dem dollahz."

Regulus X · Dec 21, 2007, 02:54 PM // 14:54

RA (unfortunately) has an undesirable pattern: Either you get 3 other High-DPS players with effective damage-mitigation, self-healing and expert reflexes and gameplay, or 2 High-DPS'ers and a Monk, and even the 1 DPS'er, 1 Auxiliary (i.e.: Rt/Any Weapon of Remedy) and 1 Monk to win. Also, their builds must be the standard high-rated top-notch in order to win (unless you're up against newbs, grievers, etc.).

On-Topic: There's no undeniable proof that a roll of like professions is influenced by anything outside of "chance". In other words, we can't say that anet (or any other outside influence) is clicking a button on a program somewhere out there to maliciously roll the same professions without being looked at as dummies. If you're getting that pattern in great frequency, then it'd be best to switch up your character to hopefully change the tide of PvP a little bit and hopefully score some gladiator points and what not.

Keithark · Dec 21, 2007, 03:02 PM // 15:02

Don't know about the character class but there is absolutely nothing random about the maps..always the beach one with the bridge, until you get to 4 wins or 9 wins, then you go to priest or kill count map

Mork from Ork · Dec 21, 2007, 03:05 PM // 15:05

Whether what the OP noticed is correct or not, everyone posting that drops are "random" are quite wrong.

In computers there is no such thing as real Randomization - computers simply can't do it. As a consequence, programmers have to use various methods to produce the appearance of randomization so that the results will seem random even when they are not.

It is possible that the developers did a good job of this and the OP seeing a pattern that is not there.

On the other hand, it may be that the method of pseudo-randomization selected by the developers was flawed and the OP is, in fact, seeing the results of that.

I believe that at one point at least the "randomization" was broken and prevented some characters from getting golds - If I remember correctly, this was fixed in an update quite some time ago.

In any case, whether the pattern the OP is seeing is real or not, there is no such thing as either chance or randomization in computer games - it just doesn't exist.

Artisan Archer · Dec 21, 2007, 03:09 PM // 15:09

I always think like this:

The more bad luck you have now, the more luck you will have in the future (compared to your luck now).

And about RA. There just are not enough monks compared to the number of warriors/sins...

If you want a monk in RA, be one...

Mordakai · Dec 21, 2007, 03:12 PM // 15:12

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lady Raenef

I have two points of this thread, I just want to get opinions on these.

Drop rates. I'm not talking about just golds, purples, etc, but more rather, your basic average white drop also. When it comes to grouping, I tend to get the least amount, or close to the least amount of items dropped. I have done all the dungeons except a few with the same two people and in my experience, they have both gotten better drops from both the chest and in-game creatures. The highest expense of an item I recieved from a dungeon would be an Onyx Gemstone, while they both got weapons that exceeded 50K.

Besides what other people mentioned, I just wanted to day that the program that randomizes drops has no clue what the market value of Golds are.

It just generates a random collection of numbers together to make an item.

Your friends could have easily gotten crap golds, and then you would be the lucky one getting an Onyx Gemstone. (I'd take a Onyx Gemstone over the typical Gold I get anyday of the week).

Sir Pandra Pierva · Dec 21, 2007, 03:32 PM // 15:32

I almost never get drops in a group.......but that could just be my bad luck or Anet hates me<_<>_>

In RA I have noticed this as well. I play a healer rit and 2 times in a row get a full group of healers. Funny but pointless. Play a sin I get 2 other sins and random. this is getting past the point of being random or maybey its just my luck really hating me.

Lady Raenef · Dec 21, 2007, 07:00 PM // 19:00

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fril Estelin

Did you try to compare how many points you and your friends have in the Lucky and Unlucky titles? This could also influence the strange drop rates you get?

Even if they did affect the item drops, I have rank 1 of Lucky and Unlucky and both my friends aren't even at rank 1 of either.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smile Like Umean It

So, have you tried taking a Mesmer and getting two others on your team?

Yes, the OP stated that I used mesmer. This happens with any profession. Though, I can honestly say I haven't gotten three Paragons on a team yet.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clarissa F

It's RA, so you have a good chance of getting monks, wammos, sins and rangers. a good portion of people who farm titles are monks, so there's always a good chance of at least one monk on your team.

Well, I have 405 Gladiator points and I've only gotten 11 with me playing as a Monk that I can recall. The rest were with a Warrior, Assassin, and Mesmer.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mork from Ork

In computers there is no such thing as real Randomization - computers simply can't do it. As a consequence, programmers have to use various methods to produce the appearance of randomization so that the results will seem random even when they are not.

At least someone here has any idea of how programming works.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Artisan Archer

If you want a monk in RA, be one...

I prefer smashing people than healing people. That's just how I roll. I only play frontline, and occasionally mesmer. Sometimes I'll spice it up as an alternative caster, but it's mainly just warrior, assassin, and mesmer. I have a dervish as well.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sir Pandra Pierva

In RA I have noticed this as well. I play a healer rit and 2 times in a row get a full group of healers. Funny but pointless. Play a sin I get 2 other sins and random. this is getting past the point of being random or maybey its just my luck really hating me.

Glad to see I'm not the only one.

On a side note, it hasn't always been that way. I've been loving the Random Arenas since old times and it wasn't until recently that the same arena map spams up, and I get triple profession count. As for drops, I'd say it's been that way all my 20 months of gameplay. I really can't recall when I got a rare drop other than a Ghail's Staff when they were worth around 40k by accident. I just went to go cap the elite.

lordheinous · Dec 21, 2007, 07:07 PM // 19:07

I just had a revelation the other day when I was playing in RA and someone was complaining about not having a monk: In reality, the odds of getting a given profession on your team is actually lower than getting that profession on the opposing team, assuming that you're not of that profession. The reasoning behind this is that, although Random Arenas may be random from an overall standpoint, from your standpoint you'll always have a constant: yourself. Therefore, the party arrangement will always be like this:

Your Team:
1.You
2.Random
3.Random
4.Random

Opposing Team:
1.Random
2.Random
3.Random
4.Random

In essence, in your particular case, not matter what else is random, you will always be assigned to your own team, which, while fairly obvious, has the ramification of taking away one of the "random" slots from your team. Since this leaves your team with three "random" spots and the opposing team with four, it effectively means that, from your point of view, the opposing team has a 33% greater chance of having a given profession, assuming you yourself are not said profession. Therefore, if you always play a sin, it will always seem as if the other team has a monk far more often than you do. In reality, this is true: By existing, and not being a monk, you're taking away one of the possible spots on your team for a monk. I'm not using this information to argue anything in particular, just wanted to share a way that reveals that RA may from a personal point of view not be totally random without anet having some secret program out to get you and only you.

Lady Raenef · Dec 21, 2007, 07:23 PM // 19:23

Well, I certainly noticed that the opposing teams get healers more than my teams. Recently, I played a few matches of RA and ended up going against a team with three rangers, and another with three warriors. As for myself, I haven't recieved a team of 3x one profession yet, but I've only hit Enter Battle twice, today.

Skyy High · Dec 21, 2007, 07:47 PM // 19:47

Quote:

Originally Posted by lordheinous

I just had a revelation the other day when I was playing in RA and someone was complaining about not having a monk: In reality, the odds of getting a given profession on your team is actually lower than getting that profession on the opposing team, assuming that you're not of that profession. The reasoning behind this is that, although Random Arenas may be random from an overall standpoint, from your standpoint you'll always have a constant: yourself. Therefore, the party arrangement will always be like this:

Your Team:
1.You
2.Random
3.Random
4.Random

Opposing Team:
1.Random
2.Random
3.Random
4.Random

In essence, in your particular case, not matter what else is random, you will always be assigned to your own team, which, while fairly obvious, has the ramification of taking away one of the "random" slots from your team. Since this leaves your team with three "random" spots and the opposing team with four, it effectively means that, from your point of view, the opposing team has a 33% greater chance of having a given profession, assuming you yourself are not said profession. Therefore, if you always play a sin, it will always seem as if the other team has a monk far more often than you do. In reality, this is true: By existing, and not being a monk, you're taking away one of the possible spots on your team for a monk. I'm not using this information to argue anything in particular, just wanted to share a way that reveals that RA may from a personal point of view not be totally random without anet having some secret program out to get you and only you.

Tricky, but good observation.

Qwertyfied · Dec 21, 2007, 07:53 PM // 19:53

Quote:

Originally Posted by Drop of Fear

random != fair

Quoted for truth.

Solas · Dec 21, 2007, 08:35 PM // 20:35

all you really did was give 2 accounts of when your friend was lucky and when you wern't

really to be fair and statistical about this you'd need to do a normal run with like 3 other friends (1 run each) as a control.

then get you and that firend to do a run 10 times, each with H/H party, together with H/H and compare.

In Ra what class do you play?
if its a popular class then mroe popel will play hence giving a better precentage that class will be i na party

aapo · Dec 21, 2007, 09:43 PM // 21:43

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lady Raenef

The highest expense of an item I recieved from a dungeon would be an Onyx Gemstone, while they both got weapons that exceeded 50K.

- I stopped reading right there, because this sentence alone proves me that you have nothing useful to say. I think you should know better that the game doesn't give deliver items based on what other players are giving for them.

Agent Mold3r · Dec 21, 2007, 10:24 PM // 22:24

is anyone else getting sick of these communist threads?

its RANDOM, GET OVER IT

Nevin · Dec 21, 2007, 10:25 PM // 22:25

Quote:

Originally Posted by strcpy

Yes, lots of people experience that also. Lots of people also experience the opposite - that is part of Random.

To note, go read about "The Gambler's Fallacy" and "Law of Averages" - both describe something that doesn't exist yet people are 100% sure they do. They are the basis for what you see as evidence that "Random" not being true here when they are both fallacies. 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1 is just as random as 1,5,8,23,4, 9, 12, 16 and, in fact, each one has *exactly* the same chance of occurring assuming they each have the same amount of values (that is, 8 numbers between 1 and 25).

The only one that you will see quoted very often that is true is the "Law of Big Numbers", effectively you need WAY more data than what you are taking and you also need to look at "Sample Bias" to note that you can not let people simply opt in to give you those big numbers (and why you have to record *everything*). Saying that too many post about seeing it means it true is because of a HUGE sample bias (along with some other fallacies in statistics - they tend to be the same reason that many superstitions are around too).

Unless and until you have an unbiased sample large enough to satisfy the law of big numbers you have no standing.

QFT

12 chars.

I Phoenix I · Dec 21, 2007, 11:03 PM // 23:03

Oh noes! ANet is out to get you! Quick, log off!

*those that read the GW myths or whatever thread would get this*

Zeek Aran · Dec 21, 2007, 11:37 PM // 23:37

Quote:

Originally Posted by I Phoenix I

Oh noes! ANet is out to get you! Quick, log off!

*those that read the GW myths or whatever thread would get this*

Ahahaha, that guy that yelled at his wife. That was such an amazing story.

Crom The Pale · Dec 21, 2007, 11:50 PM // 23:50

Personally I believe in the Chaos Theory combined with Murfys Law.

When I RA, and I very rarely do, I am almost always on a team with no monk vs a team with at least 1 if not 2 monks.

When I party with people I always get 1/3 the gold drops they do, but thats just life. Mind you it only takes one gold drop out of 1000 to be rare enough to make a person rich or just very very happy with what they got. And I have had that 1:1000 drop more than once in my 32+ months of play time so I really can't complain.

strcpy · Dec 22, 2007, 07:02 AM // 07:02

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mork from Ork

Whether what the OP noticed is correct or not, everyone posting that drops are "random" are quite wrong.

No, for all intents and purposes if they use a decent PRNG it *is* random from your point of view. There are random number generators that are even cryptographically secure, if those guys aren't detecting patterns with specialized equipment running for months on end you aren't going to figure one out by looking at drops.

Quote:

In computers there is no such thing as real Randomization - computers simply can't do it. As a consequence, programmers have to use various methods to produce the appearance of randomization so that the results will seem random even when they are not.

Wrong, one can achieve as much as is physically possible "random" (though there is still much argument if *anything* is truly random or we just don't understand it enough yet). They generally do so by gathering data about some event (say, measuring radioactive decay).

What you mean to say is that PRNG's can not do true randomization (and hece the pseudo part of therm). However there are quite a few PRNG's that are used frequently in games that are VERY good and are, for all intents or purposes, random.

Quote:

It is possible that the developers did a good job of this and the OP seeing a pattern that is not there.

Not only "possible" but, if they are telling the truth and they are using a PRNG, then it is the *only* option. To get the behavior expressed it must be explicitly done, not just a consequence of a poor PRNG.

Quote:

On the other hand, it may be that the method of pseudo-randomization selected by the developers was flawed and the OP is, in fact, seeing the results of that.

Nope, Even a poor one, such as RANDU, is not going to exhibit the behavior expressed in these threads.

Quote:

I believe that at one point at least the "randomization" was broken and prevented some characters from getting golds - If I remember correctly, this was fixed in an update quite some time ago.

I don't know what caused said bug, there are many many options. However if one has any mathematical knowledge of PRNG's then it would be *really* tough to get a PRNG that did that, in fact so tough I would guess it to be impossible (however, since I'm too lazy to actually do anything formal to prove it I can't say for 100% sure).

Quote:

In any case, whether the pattern the OP is seeing is real or not, there is no such thing as either chance or randomization in computer games - it just doesn't exist.

It can, though it would be too costly. However, just because if you know the algorithm and seed it will repeat the same numbers every time (that is, it is a deterministic process) doesn't mean it isn't effectively random. In fact, some of the better PRNG's it doesn't even help much to know the algorithm used, you have to know both the algorithm and seed (and this is from a cryptographically secure standpoint of analyzing many thousands of data points - something you can't simply do in your head).

Unfortunately you don't seem to understand any of the actual math behind PRNG's, just have an IT persons view of them. That is, nothing more than PRNG's are deterministic given the same seed and you are then extrapolating that on out into places it does not actually lead.

If Anet uses a RNG it will *not* exhibit the behavior people keep seeing regardless of it is of the Pseudo type (and a terrible one at that) or is radioactive decay (the most statistically random event currently known to us - and VERY expensive to use as a random number generator).