Curse

Ku Ku · Feb 26, 2008, 04:20 PM // 16:20

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jetdoc

I saw someone spamming an armbrace for 100K + 10 ectos last night in Kamadan.

I find it amusing since a little over a month ago you found people spamming/trading at between 100K + 35 ectos to 100K + 40 ectos.

This really has to be causing havoc in the very high-end trading circles, as one of their main commodities is really taking a nosedive.

Anyone have any ideas as to why the market has cratered? The proliferation of Ursan? The spending of excess cash on sweets/party favors/afking during the Canthan New Year? The decreasing rarity of tormented weapons?

It's been one of the biggest movements in the economy I've seen over the past year...

Duping definately comes into this but mostly it was the exploit i think (where apparently you could get to mallyx without killing the other bosses) it was about this time that the armbraces really began to take a crash and they just havent been able to pick up since because of the increase in people farming there now!

The Way Out · Feb 26, 2008, 05:49 PM // 17:49

I still hear about duping... which I think is funny. I don't blame anet for it... however, when hackers lock onto a game... they normally stick around for the long haul. The same thing happened with a few other online games. GW had a good run and GW2 is coming out just in time.

Numa Pompilius · Feb 26, 2008, 06:20 PM // 18:20

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Way Out

I still hear about duping... which I think is funny. I don't blame anet for it... however, when hackers lock onto a game... they normally stick around for the long haul

Not to mention that GW support chose not to fix even incredibly serious bugs like the "crash other players client" or the mallyx citadel bug when they were informed of them.

One guy reported both those bugs in OCTOBER LAST YEAR, together with about a dozen other serious bugs, and what happened? Nothing.
About a month ago he posted about them here at GWGuru, at which point Gaile got upset and claimed it was illegal to report serious bugs in a public forum, GWGuru deleted his posts (which were well-documented and had already been moved to the outstanding bugs section) as well as all posts linking to his reports. And many of the bugs are still not fixed.

Now, support went to hell when NCSoft took over from ANet, and maybe there are no programmers left maintaining GW, but that no action is taken against bugs like these, which basically are as serious as any bug can ever get, unless it becomes common knowledge that the bugs are being abused to hell and back by exploiters, doesn't exactly instill confidence.

The Way Out · Feb 26, 2008, 06:21 PM // 18:21

Quote:

Originally Posted by Numa Pompilius

Not to mention that GW support chose not to fix even incredibly serious bugs like the "crash other players client" or the mallyx citadel bug when they were informed of them.

One guy reported both those bugs in OCTOBER LAST YEAR, together with about a dozen other serious bugs, and what happened? Nothing.
About a month ago he posted about them here at GWGuru, at which point Gaile got upset and claimed it was illegal to report serious bugs in a public forum, GWGuru deleted his posts (which were well-documented and had already been moved to the outstanding bugs section) as well as all posts linking to his reports. And many of the bugs are still not fixed.

Now, support went to hell when NCSoft took over from ANet, and maybe there are no programmers left maintaining GW, but that no action is taken against bugs like these, which basically are as serious as any bug can ever get, unless it becomes common knowledge that the bugs are being abused to hell and back by exploiters, doesn't exactly instill confidence.

I remember Pablo's posts. Funny thing is, gwg deleted the posts a couple hours afterward, as if they never happened. Funny, huh? There are still people ig exploiting. Kind of unfair for the ethical hacker that just wants to play the game and not have to resort to cheating to become rich... lol.

Numa Pompilius · Feb 26, 2008, 09:02 PM // 21:02

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Way Out

I remember Pablo's posts. Funny thing is, gwg deleted the posts a couple hours afterward, as if they never happened. Funny, huh?

Yeah. I was a bit disappointed with GWGuru there, but I realize they need to keep ANet happy.

Quote:

There are still people ig exploiting. Kind of unfair for the ethical hacker that just wants to play the game and not have to resort to cheating to become rich... lol.

The take-home message does seem to be that ANet ignores reported exploits, regardless of how serious they are, unless they become common knowledge. And that they will punish whistleblowers.

Loviatar · Feb 26, 2008, 09:07 PM // 21:07

[QUOTE]

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Way Out

I agree that they will piss a lot of people off, because a lot of people can't play much other than UB. That is the nature of a lazy button mashing Elite. I don't even care if they keep it or get rid of it, however, it degraded the challenge of GW to the point that there are children in the game that can do Elites now. All they do is spam four skills. The ig market is a joke and items are ridiculously easy to get now. It is my opinion that they will dummy UB down eventually, in order to save the challenge of the game (let alone the market, which is outright laudable).

politely i will disagree and give past examples of why.

1. guaranteed salvage/rune trader long ago infuriated farmers/traders (the threads were a great whine)

2. 3X sigil drop rate increase so the common noob (me) could afford a hall (whines aspplenty)

3. 3X increase drop rate on superior absorb/vigor runes when hoarders held them back to keep them at 100k/75k. check prices now

4 inscribles

note ANET has an unbroken 100% track record of opening the game to the main player base (me) at the expence of the tiny elite top farmer/trader who is playing gw tycoon not GW

this is only one more step in giving their main player base more access to the actual game.

the super neet elite are such a small fraction of a single per cent NCsofts bottom line NCsoft doesnt know they exist.

pumpkin pie · Feb 27, 2008, 02:40 AM // 02:40

why the hell would anyone buy an arm brace with 100k+40ecto?

havok019 · Feb 27, 2008, 08:05 AM // 08:05

It's the Ursan teams and the consumables. People are actually playing this area of the game because it's doable now. I think that is a good thing.
I got my first armbrace, and I'm well on my way to my second and this is from largely full runs on Fri and Sat night for the last month.

the_jos · Feb 27, 2008, 12:11 PM // 12:11

Quote:

Are you serious? Market crash? 100k +10 ecto for something you can do in a day? Just about anything else you do in a day (not counting powertrade) will get you about 30-40k max but the braces give you over 2 times that much. I don't think anything wrong with that...just inflation has gone away some.

You can do 3 HM runs or 6 NM runs on one day (given you are unlucky and not getting any gem stones drop besides the rewards)?
I don't know about HM, but NM times are probably still around/above 2hrs, making that 18 hours of play.
18 hours of play and getting 40k max would mean you farm the very impressive amount of less than 2.5k/hour.
Even if you could cut that time to half, 9 hours of play, it would be an impressive 5k/hour.
I think I can even farm those amounts in NM if I want to.
At a rate of 5k/ecto the current price of an armbrace is 150k, which would be around 8.5k/hour. 10k/hour if you need only 5 NM runs.

Either the DoA runs got a lot faster or you might have done something wrong with your math.

Quote:

It's the Ursan teams and the consumables.

It's part of the price drop, but does not explain all.
Part of it is ignorance (why would you sell something at an gold/hour rate that's just bad, see example above).
Part of it is fear, people believe the price will drop and stay low (while the gold/hour rate does not seem to support that).
The market turned in a buyers market, very low demand and very high supply.
As long as the frenzy remains, things will get worse. But it's not only UB+cons.

odly · Feb 27, 2008, 12:29 PM // 12:29

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_jos

At a rate of 5k/ecto the current price of an armbrace is 150k,

The market turned in a buyers market, very low demand and very high supply.

People are doing DoA, but they are not really interested in a 150k weapon. So yes :

supply >> demand --> lower prices.

Why do they do it then ? Because it's there and because they (finally) can. that's enough reason to do anything in a game.

KennyC · Feb 27, 2008, 12:43 PM // 12:43

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_jos

But it's not only UB+cons.

I think you are wrong mate, Ursan and cons are the ONLY reason for the drop in prices. I am assured by Anets claim that they have banned the dupers and removed all duped items and therefore dont count that as a factor! ;p

With the introduction of Ursan and cons there has been an influx of Ursan players in DOA using cons to farm. I have myself made an absolute fortune selling cons (1.6mil so far) - 8k a set is still the going rate, and I still have 400+ skill points to use!

Before Ursan the amount of people in doa was small, now there are nearly always multiple districts, in fact it's turned into the new "Spamadan" - the thing with DOA is that it went from difficult to very easy overnight and that means more people farming there. Go to Olafstead in EOTN and ask a few people why they are grinding norn points, they will tell you with a lol or two its because the wanna farm DOA. Also you only have to read local chat in DOA to realise its Ursan and Cons. Ursan or Cons are mentioned (in my experience) 90% of all local chat messages.

1. More people farming = more armbraces on the market.

2. More armbraces on the market = it becomes a buyers market instead of a sellers market so prices drop.

3. Prices drop = tormented weapons become less rare, therefore much less desirable and prices drop further.

4. Posts like mine and threads like this one also drive the prices down, although quite why anyone would like a paperclip sword (tormented sword) is beyond me!

azizul1975 · Feb 27, 2008, 02:09 PM // 14:09

could it be becoz of speculative play. i mean, say u want to buy the armbraces cheap, right. one way is to create a market havoc. a way to do it is by spamming "WTS armbrace 100k +10ectos ( or less)" , whereas u dont actually have it. if any person ask for it you can just reply "sorry ,sold". of course if one person doing it people will not realise, but what if 1000 person doing it (now that GW sold 5mil copies), everyday, along with the emergence of ursanway , surely the actual armbraces hoarders do feel the threat, hence selling it as quick as possible before the market fell further.

i dont know, just my thought....

stretchs · Feb 27, 2008, 02:10 PM // 14:10

Actually as Gaile stated they removed alot of them, she didnt guarantee they were all removed in her last post about this subject, so your assertion that Ursan and Consumables are the only reason is off based from the start. As many have said here, there are thousands of those duped items still floating around, the dupers clearly were trading them to people as currency and we have yet to find a case where someone had the armbraces they were traded were removed, they removed the items in the accnts and linked accnts to these dupers and probably very little outside of that. Think about it, you were trading a q9 inscr really amazing drop to a duper who said i will give you 1k armbraces, then whamo, you trade, 2 days later you lose both the item cause of the trade AND the armbraces? I think there would have been a holy hell to be paid in that regard

The Way Out · Feb 27, 2008, 02:12 PM // 14:12

[QUOTE=Loviatar]

Quote:

politely i will disagree and give past examples of why.

1. guaranteed salvage/rune trader long ago infuriated farmers/traders (the threads were a great whine)

2. 3X sigil drop rate increase so the common noob (me) could afford a hall (whines aspplenty)

3. 3X increase drop rate on superior absorb/vigor runes when hoarders held them back to keep them at 100k/75k. check prices now

4 inscribles

note ANET has an unbroken 100% track record of opening the game to the main player base (me) at the expence of the tiny elite top farmer/trader who is playing gw tycoon not GW

this is only one more step in giving their main player base more access to the actual game.

the super neet elite are such a small fraction of a single per cent NCsofts bottom line NCsoft doesnt know they exist.

Before you quot me, read my post. I said it would piss a lot of people off... and you then go on to describe things in the past that pissed people off... which I remember very well.
What was your point in disagreeing with me... and then proving that people had been pissed off in the past by things anet had done? Don't disagree with me and then agree with me... sounds hypocritical and inconsistent. On another note, you were probably aiming that line at the guy I was debating. The one that thinks guildwars will fail epically if UB was nerfed.

Sun Fired Blank · Feb 27, 2008, 02:31 PM // 14:31

How did people not see this coming? The values for armbrace and gemsets were unreasonable, and they haven't moved expediently for quite some time. Ursan farmers are oversaturating the market of legitimate DoA items, people are chucking around stacks of armbraces like they're pennies, and the market gave just about every indication it was going to plummet. The legitimacy and true value of DoA-related crap has been nothing but questionable for at least the last month.

I dumped my gemsets like I dumped my ectos around the introduction of hard mode. I don't understand why anyone held onto them or kept farming them. The Armbrace was never meant to be used as currency, and Gemsets were never meant to be used as currency. The very notion that you could use either as currency is laughable, and the idea that high value items would eventually devalue and crash isn't surprising in the least.

The Way Out · Feb 27, 2008, 02:40 PM // 14:40

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sun Fired Blank

How did people not see this coming? The values for armbrace and gemsets were unreasonable, and they haven't moved expediently for quite some time. Ursan farmers are oversaturating the market of legitimate DoA items, people are chucking around stacks of armbraces like they're pennies, and the market gave just about every indication it was going to plummet. The legitimacy and true value of DoA-related crap has been nothing but questionable for at least the last month.

I dumped my gemsets like I dumped my ectos around the introduction of hard mode. I don't understand why anyone held onto them or kept farming them. The Armbrace was never meant to be used as currency, and Gemsets were never meant to be used as currency. The very notion that you could use either as currency is laughable, and the idea that high value items would eventually devalue and crash isn't surprising in the least.

Actually, the Armbrace was awesome for me until they announced HoM. That killed the value to me and made me deter away from the armbrace as anything other than a way for me to make some quick spending cash. DoA prices were very reflective of the difficulty prior to UB and Consumables. I only remember a few guilds then that were able to complete it in a timely fashion.

Loviatar · Feb 27, 2008, 05:13 PM // 17:13

Quote:

QUOTE=The Way Out]

Before you quot me, read my post. I said it would piss a lot of people off... and you then go on to describe things in the past that pissed people off... which I remember very well.
What was your point in disagreeing with me... and then proving that people had been pissed off in the past by things anet had done? Don't disagree with me and then agree with me... sounds hypocritical and inconsistent. On another note, you were probably aiming that line at the guy I was debating. The one that thinks guildwars will fail epically if UB was nerfed.

[/QUOTE]

i did read it i should have been more specific my apologies.

i was giving examples where Anet royally pissed off a tiny group to make the vast majority happy.

you stated that Anet would piss off a lot of their player base to make the game harder (increase challenge) and fix the economy for a tiny splinter group

i think they wont piss off the majority to increase the profits of a few

OOshadeOO · Feb 27, 2008, 08:19 PM // 20:19

basicaly not all the dupers were caught end of

hurdlebeast · Feb 28, 2008, 04:51 AM // 04:51

Quote:

Originally Posted by Day Trooper

Without a doubt - Ursan is the prime culprit why the gemset market is declining so rapidly!

I have to chuckle how so many Ursan-defenders said stuff like 'What do you care! If you don't want to use Ursan - don't use it! It's not like my using Ursan affects your gameplay anyways!"

Well guess what? It sure as heck does! Not only can you not find a group doing DoA that doesn't use Ursan, but now (with the other 'cheat-code': consumables

) it's vastly easier to acquire gems now than in the pre-Ursan days. So naturally the prices are declining

Mind you this is coming from someone who hasn't even done a full DoA run yet - it just seems wrong that supposed 'elite' areas are becoming childs-play with cheat-code skills like Ursan.

Here's to hoping GW2 doesn't have anything like it!

/agree

i feel guilty every time i use the sabway build, but i don't farm with it at all or anything like that. just helps me get through the game

Pleikki · Feb 28, 2008, 05:45 AM // 05:45

i've noticed one thing in this ambrace crash. ambraces were 100k +50e then mallyx was around that little less.. (you get it from coffer where you need gems aswell) and now ambrace is 100k +5e but Mallyx is still at ~100k +30-45e so seems like ppl have bad luck from coffers or they dont get coffers just ambraces .. :f