Curse

Frank Dudenstein · May 10, 2008, 12:18 PM // 12:18

Rank 12 Zaishen Title - an Analysis

Despite the tsunami of QQing (which seems to accompany every update these days) I think Anet did a terrific job on the new Zaishen title. People have been asking for a non-HA-based emote for a long time (forever?) and they finally delivered. It's accessible to PvE, PvP, and PvX players. What's more, it doesn't restrict what you can do to earn it. PvPers can do any formant to accumulate faction. And PvEers can play any part of the game they enjoy and spend their excess gold on keys. Great Job IMO.

But what about maxing the Zaishen Title Track. 100,000 ZPoints is daunting to say the least. Is Rank 12 actually achievable? The answer is yes, but it won't be easy. Let's analyze the three methods of getting there.

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Balthazar Faction
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How much Balthazar Faction does it take?
A ZKey costs 5,000 BFaction gives you 5 ZRank points. Thus, you need 100 million BFaction (turned into 20,000 ZKeys). This is flat out not attainable.

Faction comes in extremely slowly in RA, TA, HB and AB. It would take decades. HA and GvG gain you faction much more quickly, but 5000 still takes several matches. And it's hard to continually farm matches over and over with the 8-man team requirement - there is serious downtime.

To put it into perspective, I will use myself as an example. In three years I have 5800 hours ingame ... more than half of which dedicated to PvP (11,000+ fame and various ranks in the other PvP tracks). My running BFaction total is 4.5 million (of course the counter didn't start until sometime after BFaction was introduced, but this total represents at least 2 years of PvP). Even the top PvP players are only in the 15-20 million range now. So it is unreasonable to think that starting now a person could attain much more than a few million BFaction before GW2. That would be a tiny fraction of the total necessary ZKeys.

What about existing stocks?
Due to the BFaction cap, no one is sitting on a large stash of BFaction. However, most PvPers have been turning their BFaction into ZKeys since that option became available a few months ago (alas there was nothing else to do with it). Personally, I have made several hundred keys this way, so I would guess that there are true hardcore players that have made 1-2 thousand keys from BFaction alone. If you assume there exists some small fraction of these players that haven't sold or used any of them, they would still only be 5-10% of the way toward ZRank 12.

Conclusion:
Balthazar Faction is unlikely to provide a meaningful percentage of the necessary keys for ZRank12

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Cash
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How much does a key cost?
Currently a key costs about 5 Plat. Some think this price will drop, but i don't think it will drop much. Right now alot of PvPers have stockpiles of ZKeys built up over months, and they are unloading them. Once that supply is gone the ZKey influx will slow considerably (as noted above, BFaction comes in at a pretty slow rate). Really the only large influxes of keys will be from the MAT winners, otherwise it will be hard to find large volumes of keys for sale. On the other hand, I don't really see demand decreasing - there are alot of cool things to get from the chest now, plus the ZRank. So economics dictates that the price will likely stay high. I will estimate long-term an average of 4.5K.

How much gold will it take to buy ZRank12?
At 4.5K per ZKey that is 90 million gold. However, there is some return on your money if you sell everything you get from the chest. Most drops are not worth much (300g or less) but in such high volume you will inevitably get someting really rare. Assuming over the long haul you get a 20% return (and I think that's generous) that puts the cash you need to invest at 75 million.

Does anyone have that kind of money?
I'm not part of the hardcore PvE scene, but I believe there are some hardcore players out there with 75 million+ in assets. Of course it's spread all over the place. Storage maxes out a 1 million, plus 100K per character. So after the first 2 million or so the rest has to be in the form of liquid assets such as stacks of 255 Ecto (~1.2 million each), Armbraces (~150K each), and rare minipets/weapons (up to several million each). Of course you need ALOT of ALL of those to reach 75 Million, but farmers tend to be pretty obsessive, so there are some people with that kind of wealth.

Would anyone spend that kind of money on a title?
Well, first off, I would think that the person would have to have considerably more than 75 million to buy the title (I can't see someone near the 75 million mark spending it ALL on one title). So we are probably talking about only a handful of people (if that). It seems very unlikely that any of them would do it, for two reasons:
1. The logistics would be an absolute nightmare. First off, they would have to go through the process of selling 90 million in assets. Anyone who has stood around in Lions Arch knows how difficult it is to sell one item, much less 90 million worth. It would take months of tedium. Then, they would have to figure out how to buy 20,000 ZKeys. This could be easier (if they could somehow arrange to buy ZKeys in bulk from the MAT GvG winners) but it would still likely take a tremendous amount of time and effort.
2. Anyone with that kind of money has spent thousands and thousands of hours over three years accumulating it. That’s ALOT of work to blow on one single emote ... it doesn't seem worth it.

What about buying gold online?
Uh, no. One million online gold costs about $150 US. You need 75 million gold. Do the math.

What about duped Armbraces?
It's possible that there are people with a few stacks of duped Armbraces that survived the ban-fest. At ~150K per Armbrace that person would have to sell 500 Armbraces to get 75 million gold.
1. Again logistics would bite you. It's not easy to find a buyer for one Armbrace, 500 (one at a time) would be a nightmare. Then we come back to the buying 20,000 keys part.
2. Anyone selling that many Armbraces would likely be noticed by the community and that person again would be exposed to being caught.

Conclusion:
Buying the title (or a large chunk of it) is certainly possible, but IMO it's pretty unrealistic.

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Reward Points
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Accumulating Reward points is far and away the easiest way to advance this title. Unlike Cash or BFaction, which sport a 1000-1 ZRank ratio, RPs offer a 1-1 reward ratio. 5 RP gets you a key which gets you 5 ZPoints. So 100,000 RP are required to max the title. However, this person could sell the proceeds from opening the chest, and get some return (above I estimated 20%). That lowers the number of RP required to approximately 83,000.

For top GvG players, the RP come in fast and there is nothing else to do with them. Once you buy PvP FoW (2K RP) and a set of PvP Tormented weapons (2-3K RP) you are left with nothing but ZKeys. And many GvGers use PvE characters, so they don't even bother with the PvP skins.

What existing stocks of RP are out there?
Top GvGers have made many thousands of RP already (I have made 2K myself and I am far from a top player). Many of them had been converting/selling their keys before the update (doh!), but I do know of a few existing stashes in the 2-8K range. I do not know of anyone with more than 8K stockpiled but it is possible.

How fast will the RP start coming in?
Winners of the GvG MAT will get a whopping 4500 RP. Anet hasn't said, but I am guessing the second/third/etc place teams will get a proportionally high amount too. Plus dedicated players can get 100+ RP per day doing Daily ATs. It's entirely reasonable for a top GvG Guild to bring in 5000-6000+ in a month if they do well in the MAT. Of course, even at 6000 RP per month (plus BFaction) it would require many months of dedication to get there.

What about Hero battles?
The HB Monthly offers 1500 RP to the winner, which is nice but pales in comparison to GvG. In addition only one person gets that 1500 (as opposed to a full team of GvGers) cutting down the pool of possible title candidates. Hero Battle Daily Tournaments make it very easy to farm RP, but the payoff is only so-so. Finishing in the top few spots of a Daily HB can earn you 50+ RP, and it is easy to do two (or even three) tournaments per day. However, you have to be quite good at HB to consistently finish in the top couple of spots ... if you finish out of the top 10 or so you are looking at more like 10-15 RP. Not bad but it's not going to get you to 83,000.

I'm not a top PvPer, can I get RP?
Yes, but not many. Anyone can enter daily tournaments, and there are guaranteed RP payouts to all participants that play the full tourney. But they are small ... 15 or 5 plus a few points for winning a match. To get meaningful amounts you have to win dailies and do well in monthlies. For GvG this requires being in a top guild ... and they only accept the best players (who have all been practicing for 3 years). To be a top HB player you have to practice. ALOT. The format is very unique and the top players all have 2000-5000+ matches under their belt. They know every pixel of every map and all of the nuances of the AI. So unless you are already a very good PvP player, there is a somewhat steep learning curve to start getting good RP.

Conclusion:
RP is the best way of getting bulk ZKeys fast, but you must be a top PvP player to do this.

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So what's the deal, is anyone going to max this thing?

Probably. If something can be done, usually someone will set their mind to doing it. But the pool of potential candidates is very small, and honestly, if you aren't already in that pool, then you pretty much have no chance of getting there before GW2.

The person who does this must be one of two things:

1. An ultra-rich PvEer willing to liquidate a mountain of assets for the 'prestige' (such as it is) of being the only person with this title.

2. A top GvGer in a guild that plans on doing (and winning) Monthly GvG tourneys for the foreseeable future (at least 1-2 years or until GW2 comes out) and spend all RP + BFaction on ZKeys. It would help if this person already has a stockpile of RPs/ZKeys ... and it wouldn't be bad if he had a stockpile of cash too (many top GvGers are fairly rich in PvE too). Also an interesting note ... several top GvGers play HB very well too. Dual farming GvG and HB at a high level would greatly enhance the speed that which you could attain ZKeys.

IMO a top GvGer that is also a rich PvEer (and perhaps and a regular HBer) has the best shot at getting ZRank 12

Of course there is a third option … speculative but possible. Maybe there is a top GvG guild out there full of PvPers who don't care about PvE or money or keys or titles. This hypothetical guild could pool their RP together and (if they did well in the monthlies) achieve this title for one of their members fairly quickly.

Oh well, enough idle speculation. Thanks for reading my guide, I hope you enjoyed it. If I missed anything obvious or made some incorrect assumptions, feel free to correct me.

Now go out there and earn yourself some keys!

pamelf · May 10, 2008, 12:25 PM // 12:25

Very, very interesting...seriously. I would never have really thought of the big picture like that...

Is there however a rank 12? (Clearly I don't know much about this title at all...) OR is it one of those ranks that you just hit and that's it?

wu is me · May 10, 2008, 12:29 PM // 12:29

not to mention buying the gold would prolly cause a huuuge shock to the gold market demand, and i won't speculate on how much more than 15k USD it would cost.

Same goes for a player liquidating the armbraces to get zaishen keys. (unless they did it verry slowly over time)

So yea that pretty much leaves option 2

Niila · May 10, 2008, 12:33 PM // 12:33

Definitely a nice post about this brand new title track. You have thought of various points, but I see one missing.

I'm pretty damn sure that whoever wins mAT, will exchange their rewards for irl-money. As it seems to me, those so-called top-gvgrs don't give a shit about pve money and will probably sell their gold they get from keys. Most of them don't bother to open the chest anyway because they simply don't care.

distilledwill · May 10, 2008, 12:38 PM // 12:38

Excellent analysis, Im intrigued as to how this new title will change the dynamic of the game, Im certainly never going to max it. (Dont GvG, and from your analysis that means.. PHAIL!)

Im not fussed, but I will enjoy spending a little dough here and there, and spending a little Bfaction there and here and getting a few ranks.

Ben-A-BoO · May 10, 2008, 12:39 PM // 12:39

Yeah nice post,
I just wrote a thread for our alliance forums that almost exactly looks like yours just more aimed at people that try to achieve first and mid ranks of the title track.

The Xunlai Tournament Predictions is also a fairly nice and free source of zkeys for those you just want to climb up without heading for the max. Even if you are quite clueless about top GvG / HB. However nothing worth mentioning in the race for rank 12.

zwei2stein · May 10, 2008, 12:42 PM // 12:42

Seems like z-keys are new hot thing to dupe.

disaster422 · May 10, 2008, 12:45 PM // 12:45

thanks for this post. Some idiot on gameamp forums says that he has r12 zaishen within the first day and it only took him 3-4 hours lol. First time I saw that I knew it was bullshit cuz all he does is lie(says he's r13, r5 champ etc). This just reinforces it, and it gave me some good info ^^

Good post!

Frank Dudenstein · May 10, 2008, 12:47 PM // 12:47

Quote:

Originally Posted by Niila

I'm pretty damn sure that whoever wins mAT, will exchange their rewards for irl-money. As it seems to me, those so-called top-gvgrs don't give a shit about pve money and will probably sell their gold they get from keys. Most of them don't bother to open the chest anyway because they simply don't care.

Good point about exchaning the rewards for irl-money .. that will slow the rate of Zkeys into he economy further, making it harder (and more expensive) to buy keys.

And yes, many top GvGers don't care about PvE or money. But many of them do (some of them play PvE quite alot though they don't like to admit it) and IMO it is one of these people that has the best shot at R12. Especially if they can convice some of their GvG-only teammates to donate their MAT rewards.

BTW .. I just saw a R9 Zaishen in GToB ... so maybe I am overestimating the difficulty of this title a little...

Psychic Watch · May 10, 2008, 12:54 PM // 12:54

Logged in to see the fuss yesterday, and someone (Deity something-or-other) in Balth's Temple had r9 already, at least 1/5 of max. I shook my head and logged out.

pumpkin pie · May 10, 2008, 12:58 PM // 12:58

someone spotted a r9 yesterday.

~ Dan ~ · May 10, 2008, 01:03 PM // 13:03

Quote:

Originally Posted by Frank Dudenstein

People have been asking for a non-HA-based emote for a long time (forever?) and they finally delivered.

Yes. Who would've thought though, that they'd introduce an emote for one of the least skill based titles?

Quote:

What's more, it doesn't restrict what you can do to earn it. PvPers can do any formant to accumulate faction. And PvEers can play any part of the game they enjoy and spend their excess gold on keys. Great Job IMO.

Great job? No, this is the problem. Someone could do alot of high-end PvP, have UAX and actually earn it. Whereas some pve scrub could've duped ambraces and bought the title.

The title is a joke.

pumpkin pie · May 10, 2008, 01:09 PM // 13:09

Quote:

Originally Posted by Frank Dudenstein

...People have been asking for a non-HA-based emote for a long time (forever?) and they finally delivered..............

which brings me back to my question: soooooo, HA earned Balthazar cannot be counted towards this title. yes?

PS: good post

~ keep forgetting to mention.

Antheus · May 10, 2008, 01:10 PM // 13:10

On the up side, eBay value of GW accounts is steadily going up.

Quote:

I just saw a R9 Zaishen in GToB ... so maybe I am overestimating the difficulty of this title a little.

No, not really. People right now have stockpiles of keys that they've accumulated since they were released. So the time it took to get r9 is the time since keys were added to game. Multiply that by 5 to get the time till max rank.

Turbobusa · May 10, 2008, 01:11 PM // 13:11

Quote:

Originally Posted by pumpkin pie

someone spotted a r9 yesterday.

Saw him, dupe imo, I just can't believe he got that much keys in one day... even if he was aware of the upcoming of the title that's just too much keys to accumulate

Don't forget that if you get a rare everlasting thingy, it pays off for a crap load of keys...

pumpkin pie · May 10, 2008, 01:13 PM // 13:13

what is a rare everlasting thingy? how do you get that?

miskav · May 10, 2008, 01:15 PM // 13:15

Some-one With R9 already must have duped >__> There's just no way.

Frank Dudenstein · May 10, 2008, 01:16 PM // 13:16

Quote:

Originally Posted by ~ Dan ~

Yes. Who would've thought though, that they'd introduce an emote for one of the least skill based titles?

Great job? No, this is the problem. Someone could do alot of high-end PvP, have UAX and actually earn it. Whereas some pve scrub could've duped ambraces and bought the title.

The title is a joke.

Nothing in PvE takes a great deal of skill ... and Anet wanted to make a Emote/Title accessible to PvE. Hence an emote that doesn't require alot of skill. Whats the problem with that?

The fact that it is also accessible via PvP is a bonus in my mind. I don't know why everyone has a problem with this.

Quote:

Originally Posted by miskav

Some-one With R9 already must have duped >__> There's just no way.

Totally untrue. Prior to this update there wasn't much to do with Reward Points. So some top GvGers have had many thousands of these thing accumulating. Some of these guys are also very rich PvEers ... so I can see how cashing this in all at once could get you to 25K and R9 quickly.

The hard part now is getting the next 75K starting at nothing.

pumpkin pie · May 10, 2008, 01:18 PM // 13:18

Quote:

Originally Posted by Frank Dudenstein

Nothing in PvE takes a great deal of skill ... and Anet wanted to make a Emote/Title accessible to PvE. Hence an emote that doesn't require alot of skill. Whats the problem with that?

The fact that it is also accessible via PvP is a bonus in my mind. I don't know why everyone has a problem with this.

now you are going to start a fight with that bold text.

Frank Dudenstein · May 10, 2008, 01:25 PM // 13:25

Quote:

Originally Posted by pumpkin pie

now you are going to start a fight with that bold text.

Not trying to start a fight ... or diminish PvE ... I know that vanquishing and some of the elite areas can be quite challenging.

But this is totally off-topic ... lets stick with R12 Zaishen :-)