Oct 04, 2008, 04:25 PM // 16:25
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#1
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Ascalonian Squire
Join Date: Jan 2006
Guild: The Monkey Pants
Profession: W/Mo
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Ectoplasm Prices.
Ecto prices soared by over 25% in the past 2 days, and they continue to rise.
This is interesting, as they have never got this high in a while, I think that this has something to do with the drop rate in UW. In my 10 UW runs today, I averaged 2.4 ectos per run, compared to 3.3 for my average run. (600/smiter)
This is not a big nerf (27%), so in theory the ecto prices should increase by at least 27%. (margin of error = ~15%)
But I think that they will get more expensive this weekend since it is double faction.
Supply will decrease by a bigger factor than demand, which will therefore bring the prices up even more. As there is a constant increase in demand and I think supply is staying constant for now, prices will go up.
Drop rate nerf + decreased supply + increased demand = Big price increase.
I'd think they will be 7k in the course of a week if there is no money dump into the economy.
Last edited by killyall; Oct 04, 2008 at 07:42 PM // 19:42..
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Oct 04, 2008, 04:31 PM // 16:31
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#2
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Ascalonian Squire
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or maybe it has to do with the fact favor is dropping, and people are hoarding ecto's now..
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Oct 04, 2008, 04:33 PM // 16:33
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#3
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Jungle Guide
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i kind of doubt it will rise much, to be honest.
I've watched them jump and fall the last few days. They were at 5.5 (from trader) on thursday then dropped to 4.9 yesterday. Today they jumped again to 5.5. It makes me think that people just aren't buying/selling with the trader anymore so when a few people do it makes a big jump one way or the other. I suspect they will hover a little one side or the other of 5k.
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Oct 04, 2008, 04:35 PM // 16:35
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#4
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Hall Hero
Join Date: Aug 2005
Profession: E/
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This post smells of somebody trying to cause a panic and stir up ecto prices. Ecto will not get up to 7k anytime soon, and drop rates over the course of a a couple of runs is too statistically variable to prove anything.
Reporting for close since this is just trying to cause a price panic.
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Oct 04, 2008, 04:42 PM // 16:42
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#5
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Furnace Stoker
Join Date: Mar 2007
Guild: Our Crabs Know True [LOVE]
Profession: R/
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Make 1000 runs and see a specific drop rate. Then make another 1000 runs and see a different drop rate. Now that would be something to talk about.
10 runs tells you ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.
As noted, the price jumped to 5.5k, and then back down to 4.9k in a matter of hours.
Ecto prices are in flux, and the drop rate has not been 'nerfed'.
Keep dreaming and keep farming. Nothing has changed.
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Oct 04, 2008, 04:44 PM // 16:44
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#6
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Grotto Attendant
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MagmaRed
Make 1000 runs and see a specific drop rate. Then make another 1000 runs and see a different drop rate. Now that would be something to talk about.
10 runs tells you ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.
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^This, exactly.
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Oct 04, 2008, 04:45 PM // 16:45
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#7
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Ascalonian Squire
Join Date: Jan 2006
Guild: The Monkey Pants
Profession: W/Mo
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My 3.3 is based on about 1800 runs. The 2.4 is still being tested, as I'm running right now, Im up to 13 runs and it didnt increase much at all. Do a run and see for yourself, ecto's are dropping less.
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Oct 04, 2008, 04:51 PM // 16:51
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#8
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Grotto Attendant
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If its based on 1800 runs, then you should have 5940 ectos (or the half of that, not sure if you meant the drops for yourself or for the team). R U RICH?
Also, its pretty weird that you noted the drops for 1800 runs.. I mean, no offense, but you must be hella bored.
Last edited by Dronte; Oct 04, 2008 at 04:53 PM // 16:53..
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Oct 04, 2008, 04:57 PM // 16:57
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#9
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Ascalonian Squire
Join Date: Jan 2006
Guild: The Monkey Pants
Profession: W/Mo
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Dronte, I'm an economist, I've been keeping track of prices of ectos, average drop rate, drops per run for every day/run that I've played in GW. And I've played for a long time.
Edit: I've also noticed golds are dropping much more often. Up to 1.6 per run from 0.7 per run.
Last edited by killyall; Oct 04, 2008 at 05:07 PM // 17:07..
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Oct 04, 2008, 05:21 PM // 17:21
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#10
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Ascalonian Squire
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Quote:
Originally Posted by killyall
Dronte, I'm an economist, I've been keeping track of prices of ectos, average drop rate, drops per run for every day/run that I've played in GW. And I've played for a long time.
Edit: I've also noticed golds are dropping much more often. Up to 1.6 per run from 0.7 per run.
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If you really are an economist then you'd realize that 13 runs means absolutely squat and wouldn't have uttered a peep about it until you had at least 500 runs done.
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Oct 04, 2008, 05:24 PM // 17:24
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#11
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Forge Runner
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: AZ
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Played for a long time but yet only 12 posts on guru before today?
also, if you have been keeping track as you say, you know that ectos price moves in steps, not in a smooth curve.
Therefore a movement from 4.9 to 5.5k can happen with the purchase of 1 ecto from the trader (as you would be aware Im sure).
There is a plentiful supply of ectos - at least until anet make another use for them, so I disagree with the OP post, and stating that he is an Economist then basis his hypothesis on a sample of 10 runs makes me worry that he might be an economist in the US banking sector (oops) :P
Last edited by Lycan Nibbler; Oct 04, 2008 at 05:26 PM // 17:26..
Reason: typo correction
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Oct 04, 2008, 05:38 PM // 17:38
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#12
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Jungle Guide
Join Date: Jan 2007
Profession: R/Mo
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the ecto rate is the same ,
here is the reason whyecto prices are going up, there is a couple of reasons for this
1, they nerfed the fast easy way to farm so now we dont have noobs sellig to the trader at a high rate
2, im not the only on that noticed that companys selling gold are also selling ecto, and from there point of view trading gold is easier to catch then selling ecto,
and sence time is money a company would rather by ecto from the trader, then from poeple. in saying this now we have companys acutally helping the ecto prices by doing this, say some one putin a offer to buy ecto, the company then goes and buys the 200ecto from trader and now we have more pople selling to trader then buying from him. thus rasing the price,
and more pople are getting lazy instead of farming they buy it ther for the can buy titles.
if the favor issue was true last time favor went down to 60 min left ecto prices would have went through the roof but they didnt change at all,, only scrolls did
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Oct 04, 2008, 05:40 PM // 17:40
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#13
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Desert Nomad
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Canada
Guild: Guy In Real Life [GIRL]
Profession: W/E
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Ecto prices were stable around 4.9-5.5 at the trader for several months before the advent of the Shadow Form sin UW farm. It has just taken a little while for them to fully recover to this price. I wouldn't expect them to go any higher any time soon.
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Oct 04, 2008, 05:41 PM // 17:41
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#14
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Forge Runner
Join Date: Dec 2005
Guild: Super Fans Of Gaile [ban]
Profession: W/
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If you really were an economist, you would understand how little economic theory applies to this game, where 'money' constantly pops out of thin air and into the system.
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Oct 04, 2008, 05:59 PM // 17:59
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#15
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Wark!!!
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Florida
Profession: W/
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Having .9 fewer ectos per run on one day is not a big deal.
Most likely a few people bought some gold and ran down to the rare mat trader.
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Oct 04, 2008, 06:00 PM // 18:00
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#16
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Ascalonian Squire
Join Date: Jan 2006
Guild: The Monkey Pants
Profession: W/Mo
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Quote:
If you really were an economist, you would understand how little economic theory applies to this game, where 'money' constantly pops out of thin air and into the system.
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If you really had any idea what you were talking about you would realize that economy applies to everything.
Quote:
Played for a long time but yet only 12 posts on guru before today?
also, if you have been keeping track as you say, you know that ectos price moves in steps, not in a smooth curve.
Therefore a movement from 4.9 to 5.5k can happen with the purchase of 1 ecto from the trader (as you would be aware Im sure).
There is a plentiful supply of ectos - at least until anet make another use for them, so I disagree with the OP post, and stating that he is an Economist then basis his hypothesis on a sample of 10 runs makes me worry that he might be an economist in the US banking sector (oops) :P
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Look at my join date, ectos do not move in steps, they move in a curve.
Farming nerfed-prices go up.
New build-prices plummet,
Favor-prices skyrocket,
Easier to make money for noobs-Prices go up.(inflation)
Harder to make money for noobs-Prices go down.
Also, the trader prices dont count for anything, I count the prices people sell them for. Trader can be used and abused, infact, you can make people think prices went up whe nthey actually didnt, just by buying about 500 ectos from the trader.
Everything is mapped on supply and demand, there are no jumps, or steps.
Quote:
If you really are an economist then you'd realize that 13 runs means absolutely squat and wouldn't have uttered a peep about it until you had at least 500 runs done.
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If I waited till I got 500 runs done, it would be irrelevant. I am not giving you hard facts, I am predicting.
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Oct 04, 2008, 06:01 PM // 18:01
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#17
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Pre-Searing Cadet
Join Date: Sep 2007
Guild: Cold Black Eyes
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An economist would also know a 27% nerf to ecto drop does not automatically result in 27% price increase. The price would only increase to levels that the market may bear. (I dont think real world economics could apply to a video game too)
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Oct 04, 2008, 06:09 PM // 18:09
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#18
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Ascalonian Squire
Join Date: Jan 2006
Guild: The Monkey Pants
Profession: W/Mo
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jivephish
An economist would also know a 27% nerf to ecto drop does not automatically result in 27% price increase. The price would only increase to levels that the market may bear. (I dont think real world economics could apply to a video game too)
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When there is an infinite supply of currency in a system it is always a 1:1 ratio.
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Oct 04, 2008, 06:15 PM // 18:15
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#19
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Wilds Pathfinder
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Netherlands
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Quote:
Dronte, I'm an economist,
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Quote:
Demand will decrease by a bigger factor than supply, which will therefore bring the prices up even more. As there is a constant increase in supply and I think demand is staying constant for now, prices will go up.
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what?
12 characters (first time I had to do that...)
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Oct 04, 2008, 06:20 PM // 18:20
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#20
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Ascalonian Squire
Join Date: Jan 2006
Guild: The Monkey Pants
Profession: W/Mo
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Medion
what?
12 characters (first time I had to do that...)
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Just realized. Small error, fixed now. supply up demand same = prices down.
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