Curse

Shayne Hawke · Dec 26, 2008, 06:01 AM // 06:01

Quote:

Originally Posted by mikeydj99

3 days... Five accounts... 7243 Runs.

I now currently on one accounts have 14 mpb.

Do the math

7243/14= one mpb ever 517 runs or so.

So, ~00.2% chance of getting one? That's not very hopeful, but certainly better than the "LOL, .00000000000001% CHANCE, GUIZ" posts that have been floating about.

But with five accounts over 3 days, that's ~2400 runs a day, or ~1450 runs per account with ~480 runs per day. That sounds unreal.

Lol Irish · Dec 26, 2008, 06:10 AM // 06:10

Quote:

Originally Posted by mikeydj99

Seeing this thread i Devoted this last 3 days. And 4 of my cousins. on my Five accounts to a test. Between the five accounts I account for 7243 Runs.

I now currently on one accounts have 14 mpb.

Do the math

7243/14= one mpb ever 517 runs or so. This doesnt take into consideration of the accounts...

Of the five accounts just named as Accounts 1-5

Account 1 3 mpb
Account 2 2 mpb
Account 3 1 mpb
Account 4 5 mpb
Account 5 3 mpb

All in all, all i have concluded is. Its alot of work to get one. But keep trying. you will get one.

mikey you are by far "the" most intelligent person on this forum. Your posts makes absolute sense and i believe them 100%! For all your desiering a Mini Polar Bear don't worry only 517 runs till your get one ( or so )! mikey i hope you have had a very good holiday. Spend much time with the family?

Codin The Great · Dec 26, 2008, 06:31 AM // 06:31

I want a polar bear *sniffle* *sniffle* ive done the runs no polar bears and i dont got the time to do 300+ runs

Jacks Back · Dec 26, 2008, 06:52 AM // 06:52

OMG I finally got one after trying all this time and between 300 and 340 runs sorry I lost count to be accurate.
my Bear Pic
Not selling it I am transferring it to my Main account.
Keep trying everyone and good luck.
phew no more grind for me back to playing the game lol
3 years playing GW and finaly got something really great Thank you Anet

Pariah · Dec 26, 2008, 07:17 AM // 07:17

Quote:

Originally Posted by mikeydj99

Seeing this thread i Devoted this last 3 days. And 4 of my cousins. on my Five accounts to a test. Between the five accounts I account for 7243 Runs.

I now currently on one accounts have 14 mpb.

Do the math

7243/14= one mpb ever 517 runs or so. This doesnt take into consideration of the accounts...

Of the five accounts just named as Accounts 1-5

Account 1 3 mpb
Account 2 2 mpb
Account 3 1 mpb
Account 4 5 mpb
Account 5 3 mpb

All in all, all i have concluded is. Its alot of work to get one. But keep trying. you will get one.

The first rule of lying is to make the lie atleast be possible. Do the math. With these numbers all 5 players would have to have made every single run within 3 minutes each, and done the 3 minute runs nonstop for 3 straight days - no bathroom - or any other break.

Gotta call complete bullshit on you.

Lystra · Dec 26, 2008, 07:20 AM // 07:20

Quote:

Originally Posted by IlikeGW

Stolen accounts probably...

So you think spending money on extra accounts is unthinkable? I'll tell ya what. You do your farms on one account and ill do them on 4-8 accounts and ill get 4-8 times the benefit. in the same amount of time. I prefer to make better use of my time, especially when the financial investment is negligible.

..not to mention..accusing someone of stealing accounts cause they have more that 3 just seems really silly.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mikeydj99

Seeing this thread i Devoted this last 3 days. And 4 of my cousins. on my Five accounts to a test. Between the five accounts I account for 7243 Runs.

I now currently on one accounts have 14 mpb.

Do the math

7243/14= one mpb ever 517 runs or so. This doesnt take into consideration of the accounts...

Of the five accounts just named as Accounts 1-5

Account 1 3 mpb
Account 2 2 mpb
Account 3 1 mpb
Account 4 5 mpb
Account 5 3 mpb

All in all, all i have concluded is. Its alot of work to get one. But keep trying. you will get one.

First off, I really appreciate the effort you guys put into this. Its exactly the kind of project I was hoping someone had the resources to accomplish.

Unfortunately, without a screenie of 14 MPB's, there is no way this claim can be substantiated and considered to be true.

We would all like to include your data in the findings. Can you upload a screenie, or even a really short video of you mousing over each bear? I dont think a possibly fake screenie is gonna satisfy alot of people here...not to mention...i've seen some really really good fakes!

The numbers seem undoable unless a person could run 5 accounts at one time, reliably, with almost no chance of failure and ppl just aren't built perfect.

How did you track your run count. Could that be off?

Even your 14 bears seems impossible cause that would mean that you had 5 EXTREMELY lucky people farming ,making the drop rate around 1:500, which we can certainly say by now is not accurrate, and provably not even close to.

It certainly seems you simply tried to fake numbers and make it sound doable but it doesn't check out.

If you want, meet me in an outpost and just show me in trade you have at least what can fit in a trade window and I'll vouch for you in forums, at least to the number of bears.

Please post your evidence. We would all like to congratulate you and thank your for your verifiable data if it is true of course.

texeasons · Dec 26, 2008, 08:05 AM // 08:05

I hate to discredit anybody, but even with using cupcakes and each of the 5 people ran 2 accounts simultaneously, you are looking at 5 min/chest. This is running to the end (2 min.) assisting in the battle (minimum 2-3 min.) go to town, rezone, take the quest and repeat. Now with 2 accounts, one sits there while the other runs. Once the 2nd gets to the end, you go to the first one and assist in battling, this just added 2 minutes to its run. Making it atleast 7 minutes, plus a minute or 2 for accepting the reward and rezoning and retaking the quest. Now you have to run to the end again, all the while account 2 is just sitting there. Now account 2 may be done battling. This still does not give you the 3 minute/chest turn around that you need. So how in the world did you manage all those runs with that short amount of time. I'm with the others, I need pics for proof. Sorry.

Lystra · Dec 26, 2008, 09:09 AM // 09:09

Quote:

Originally Posted by texeasons

accepting the reward and rezoning and retaking the quest.

When running multiple accounts, or even not....its just faster not to take the reward and rezone to make for better time. its 5 cc shards which just aren't worth getting imo.

I can get 8 accounts run to the end at the 9 minute mark, running in pairs. When the last 4 are done, the first 4 are just finishing up. I grab my shards on all the instances really quick, get chest, start running to reaper, abandon the quests, take the quest, go in, repeat, then go back to the 2nd set of 4 accounts.

When i manage the instances 4 at a times, i split the run into 3 sections. I take all 4 to point#1, stop 2 of them while the other 2 keep on going to point#2 where they recharge health a bit. Then I go to pair#2, repeat, and go back and forth till all 4 are at the end. I do overlay the pairs a bit too once they are definitely gonna make it the next point without concern.

That's my method. I use no cons or anything like that. My characters are all sins except 1 rit and 1 ele. Since only half of my accounts have NF, i didn't start monks to make this easier for myself. Also, I use LA for starting the quest cause Kamadan is way less convenient.

If anyone else would like to share their strategy, please do

I would love to steal, oops...hear some suggestions that might make my runs faster still.

Current Run Count: 791
Got a bear on #337.none since

Hyaon · Dec 26, 2008, 09:44 AM // 09:44

Im on the 600 mark or so...no bear *eyes bleed*

Minami · Dec 26, 2008, 10:55 AM // 10:55

I am not sure how many runs I have done exactly, but if I divide all my cc shards I got by running this quest by 9 (which is about the average amount of shards I get per run), I get 267 runs so far.
Strength of Snow quest, single account.

I have not gotten a mini polar bear yet.

I am still somewhat hopeful I'll get one of them cute critters. For the time being, I'll keep going on for a bit longer.

Hooded Doom · Dec 26, 2008, 11:18 AM // 11:18

ive done upwards of 220 runs now, although i didnt play on xmas day, xmas eve or boxing day...grind starts now i gues...

no mini bear thus far =(

Khazad Guard · Dec 26, 2008, 11:33 AM // 11:33

As pointed out, 3 minute runs for 14 Polars Bears...*sigh*

I usually run two accounts (sometimes three). One of my accounts is Proph+EotN, the other two are Proph+Factions+NF+EotN. My main account is my Ele who uses Cupcakes to run through the dungeon (Sweet tooth points that I'd rather use than just spam consume) which can get to the end in 1-2mins (stupid /age fails).

I run her from Kamadan. Take the quest, enter dungeon, cupcake and run, afk (turn attention to other account) and come back to finish off the last 4 Grentchs or so. I collect all the CCS that are around, open the chest, collect the drops and map travel back to Kamadan. By map travelling back I don't get that horrid dock area spawn. Take reward, rezone and do the quest over. I take the reward for the shards (and to level the mule accounts' chars and heroes). Doesn't really bother me about the extra time needed to take the reward and respawn.

Still no bear though, but so many shards stacks in the Xunlai!

volsung · Dec 26, 2008, 12:14 PM // 12:14

day 4 kinda lost count of runs but think somewhere around 100 - 150 per day would be avg and still no bear *sob sniff sob*

ele pl · Dec 26, 2008, 12:58 PM // 12:58

Quote:

Originally Posted by volsung

day 4 kinda lost count of runs but think somewhere around 100 - 150 per day would be avg and still no bear *sob sniff sob*

/win thread imo

241 runs (leveled 2 my pve chars from lvl 3 to 10 (since you are in Kamadan at lvl 3)) and couple of runs on my monk or ele

No bear

Incarnatum · Dec 26, 2008, 01:22 PM // 13:22

I got one a few hours ago.

Runs, honestly, not 100% sure. If it helps, around 1800 CC Shards in my inventory, all from that farm. Around 8-15CC Shards per run.

I just fought to the end ([email protected] of Snow), then afk'd the other 9 minutes or so. I watched Southpark, Kitchen Nightmares etc.

Sold Undedicated.

Hooray

Oh, and I can post SS if you guys want

**Edit: Nvm, I'll post it.

http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y87...2345/gw001.jpg

Minami · Dec 26, 2008, 01:42 PM // 13:42

10 stacks of cc shards only from this quest and no bear.

I told the chest it was my rl bday on the 21st so I'd be happy for a present, but it didn't care, lol.

Hyaon · Dec 26, 2008, 03:13 PM // 15:13

*puts on foil hat* 14 mpb?...another story ploy to reduce their prices maybe?..find it hard to believe too

Yamagawa · Dec 26, 2008, 05:27 PM // 17:27

While it may be early to put a lower bound on the drop rate (That would have to wait for multiple CONFIRMED instances of multiple bear drops for a single player) I would think it's safe to say that the drop rate is under 1%, and probably not over 0.2%, or we'd be seeing more reports of multiple mini drops.

As for how many runs I've done so far... I have 249 Snowman summoners, so 249 runs, and 0 minis. You get one summoner per run. Never more, never less.
//Yamagawa

EroChrono · Dec 26, 2008, 08:04 PM // 20:04

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yamagawa

As for how many runs I've done so far... I have 249 Snowman summoners, so 249 runs, and 0 minis. You get one summoner per run. Never more, never less.
//Yamagawa

Actually thats not true.
You always get 1 fruitcake, 1 snowman summoner, 1 wintergreen candy cane & 1 spiked eggnog, then there's 1 random drop which can be any of the previous or peppermint cc, rainbow cc, eggnog, yuletide tonic or a MBP.

For me ~200 runs, no MBP. But I suspect all the times I died accidently or died because of spike lags or disconnected, those times I would have gotten a MBP

JustJasmine · Dec 26, 2008, 08:14 PM // 20:14

Quote:

Originally Posted by EroChrono

Actually thats not true.
You always get 1 fruitcake, 1 snowman summoner, 1 wintergreen candy cane & 1 spiked eggnog, then there's 1 random drop which can be any of the previous or peppermint cc, rainbow cc, eggnog, yuletide tonic or a MBP.

For me ~200 runs, no MBP. But I suspect all the times I died accidently or died because of spike lags or disconnected, those times I would have gotten a MBP

That is an interesting theory. Does the chest spawn at the start of each level or does it spawn when you kill the boss? So I mean could the MPB actually be in the chest on one of the rare runs when you die because of a stupid lag spike or because you are too tired to see the screen because you have been farming for 24 hours trying to get it? That would be so --- perplexing!