Curse

Abedeus · Jan 21, 2009, 06:24 PM // 18:24

Quote:

Originally Posted by shillo

Copy-pasted from the official spreadsheet. I'm sure NCSoft's manager who assembled it, as well as whoever presumably translated the whole thing from Korean, will appreciate your deep interest in fine details of semantics. Feel free to share your fine feedback with them.

Soooo they have been lying to us about the fact that not 5,5mlns of copies were sold (copies = all games, not just Prophecies or other chapter), but 5,5mlns of accounts were created?

That's kinda strange, as it would actually be worse, when you think about it. 5,5 mlns would include bots that activated accounts using the trial key.

shillo · Jan 21, 2009, 06:29 PM // 18:29

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tullzinski

Wait I thought Guild Wars was dead? OMG all these numbers must mean that dead people or bots are activating the accounts!!!

Well, in all fairness, there is no information on how many people leave the game, nor on how many connect to chat but don't actively play. Honestly, I do think that the total activity is going down, I just don't think that natural order of things is anything to fret about.

shillo · Jan 21, 2009, 06:30 PM // 18:30

Quote:

Originally Posted by Abedeus

Soooo they have been lying to us about the fact that not 5,5mlns of copies were sold (copies = all games, not just Prophecies or other chapter), but 5,5mlns of accounts were created?

That's kinda strange, as it would actually be worse, when you think about it. 5,5 mlns would include bots that activated accounts using the trial key.

No. Try reading my post again, this time with comprehension.

Ctb · Jan 21, 2009, 06:38 PM // 18:38

Quote:

The facts are:

There's only one fact: not a single, verifiable piece of information has ever been released about this game. None.

Got a screenshot? Demo movie? An alpha build? ANYTHING? No?

Then all you have is a few people who have claimed that some other people are building a game.

Quote:

Like I said before, think about this rationally and logically

None of that is rational or logical. It's just a bunch of idle speculation.

If you want logic, do what I suggested: apply occam's razor. There are no screenshots, no expo presentations, nobody knows the dev team, no alpha builds, no dates, no verifiable anything. Which is more likely, that the game is being actively developed, but for reasons unknown the developers are employing a secrecy that - to the best of my knowledge anyway - has never been employed before for a game that has only a marginal following and would otherwise likely benefit from high-profile attention

- OR -

The game is not being actively developed

Quote:

This is planned to be a stable beta, very close to the release date, unlike GW1.

Fine.

Prove it.

Quote:

No. Try reading my post again, this time with comprehension.

Your number is units sold. I don't know if you think you're clever for finding it, but just about everyone on this board already knows it. Like most other MMO stats, it says **** all about how many accounts are registered, much less how many accounts are actively USED.

shillo · Jan 21, 2009, 06:43 PM // 18:43

Quote:

Your number is units sold. I don't know if you think you're clever for finding it, but just about everyone on this board already knows it. Like most other MMO stats, it says **** all about how many accounts are registered, much less how many accounts are actively USED.

Oh, I completely agree that it is. Problem is, Abedeus completely misunderstood my second reply.

Edit: While number of units sold was made very public early last year, when Anet hit 5 million, I'm not aware of any place other than NCSoft's reports where the numbers are made available on a regular basis. So no, I don't believe that precise and recent numbers are all that common knowledge.

fog_of_redoubt · Jan 21, 2009, 07:28 PM // 19:28

Quote:

Originally Posted by shillo

Anet sales, 2008: Q1 3,312 M$, Q2 1.081 M$, Q3 0.837 M$
Anet gain/loss, 2008: Q1 +0.826M$, Q2 -1.826 M$, Q3 -2.317 M$

So they lost over $2mil over sales of a bit under $1M, meaning they've spent about $3M in a quarter, or about $1M/month. Somehow I doubt they're growing daisies with that kind of cash.

Oh, and another fun tidbit from Key Metrics tab in the same spreadsheet (I'm sure you all didn't know that this is public):

Guild Wars, US/Europe, # of accounts activated:

Sep, 2006 +2,447,000
Dec, 2006 +3,122,000
Mar, 2007 +3,555,000
June, 2007 +3,917,000
Sep, 2007 +4,500,000
Dec, 2007 +4,878,000
Mar, 2008 +5,159,000
June, 2008 +5,377,000
Sep, 2008 +5,589,000

Interesting numbers, nice legwork Shillo...

But just to make sure people are interpreting them correctly. This is cumulative numbers, not quarterly sales. Also as posted already these are not accounts opened, but chapters sold.

This graph shows the actual declining numbers

Assume continued decline and Q408 maybe 200,000 copies... This quarter 180,000. So that would be 90,000 US and 90,000 EU per quarter... Or 30,000 per month per continent. Again, while some are new users, most are chapters added to existing accounts. Or Amazon $5 ZKey accounts.

Point is that the GW1 franchise is in serious decline and has been since the Q307 spike (assume that was EOTN).

Still would love to see New account activation vs accounts that have not been active in 60 days... I think players are leaving faster than joining, of course ghost town districts attest to that.

tmr819 · Jan 21, 2009, 07:36 PM // 19:36

Quote:

Originally Posted by hallomik

I'm convinced that most people posting in this thread don't really believe GW2 is a giant hoax and will never be released. What I think they are hoping is that this tactic will force Anet to reveal details. "No one willl buy your game unless you give us details" they whine. It's possible Anet will cave and start to show their hand a bit. If they do, they will be duly punished.

I'm sort of past caring about GW2, one way or the other. I enjoyed GW1 greatly and pretty much milked that game dry of everything I wanted to do. Adjustments to the Hall of Monuments and (how exciting!) additional storage are not going to lure me back to GW1. I feel GW1 got put on a back burner prematurely by ANet, but oh well. The things they are now talking about adding to/revising GW1 just don't interest me much.

If GW2 ever appears on the scene, though, I'll probably give it a try. I certainly like the no-subscription model.

However, in the meantime, I am playing LotRO and having fun with that. Most of my GW guild seems to have left for other games, and that's sad but understandable.

GW2 is steadily meaning less and less to me over time. SWTOR seems, from what I have read of it, to have many of the features GW2 was allegedly supposed to have, so I'll probably end up switching from LotRO to SWTOR once it is released. SWTOR seems like more of a "sure thing" than GW2 at the moment.

snaek · Jan 21, 2009, 07:48 PM // 19:48

i think the #s r the number of key's activated, whether on the same account or on a new account

as u can see in that huge spike in q3 2007...
thats when eotn was released
and we all kno u cant make a new account with eotn alone

if ppl did make new accounts, they prolly bought multiple chapters, multiple keys, registering multiple times on the chart

in 2008, we saw the release of platinum, and trilogy, and complete collections
multiple games under the release of a single key
from a marketing standpoint, these things should sell a decent amount of copies
however, no increase in #s on the charts...
most likely because instead of having multiple keys being purchased, multiple games r now only accounted for once under a single key

(of course this is all speculation)

as for gw2...
im pretty sure it was only announced to sell more copies of eotn (aka marketing)

ive been sayin it would come out in 2010 by the earliest ever since the release of eotn
(i predict q2 2010...tryin to aim for gw1's birthdate, however q3 seems more probable accounting for any likely setbacks)

its quite unrealistic to expect it in 09...
however, anet, it wouldnt hurt to see some concept art, screenshots, sumptin

Gigashadow · Jan 21, 2009, 11:18 PM // 23:18

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ctb

If you want logic, do what I suggested: apply occam's razor. There are no screenshots, no expo presentations, nobody knows the dev team, no alpha builds, no dates, no verifiable anything. Which is more likely, that the game is being actively developed, but for reasons unknown the developers are employing a secrecy that - to the best of my knowledge anyway - has never been employed before for a game that has only a marginal following and would otherwise likely benefit from high-profile attention

- OR -

The game is not being actively developed

If you use Occam's razor, then the answer is #1; the game is under development and they don't want to release anything about it, as they said. Not #2, which is a conspiracy theory where they secretly aren't working on it even though they said they are, and that NCsoft has also been covering up for them and lying to its analysts about gw2 in its investor conference calls (where they stated that they are trying to aim for a holiday 2009 release).

Obrien Xp · Jan 21, 2009, 11:25 PM // 23:25

Quote:

Originally Posted by balamoor

I look at it like this......there is still scads to do in GW, and AN has pretty much told us major content patches coming our way this year. That will keep me busy until it gets sorted out. If You Read Jeff Grubbs Blog he often mentions working on the story aspects...so no not Vaporware.

In any event I am torn I want GW2...but I will also be hella sad if AN decides to shut down GW after it launches.

If you look at the GW2 FAQ they state that GW WILL CONTINUE (this will provide those new to Tyria to get their HoM and see what happened 250years ealrier.

Anet carries with it's promisies.
Ubisoft on the other hand... is known for vaporware.
The definition of vaporware states "long past due date" a quarter in the vidgame industry isn't alot when it comes to development.

Shadowmoon · Jan 21, 2009, 11:35 PM // 23:35

Or they simplify have run into some trouble that is delaying their intial plans, which i suppect is their game engine. Original gw2 was suppose to run on a modified gw1 engine, but they recently (this past fall) lincessed another game engine. Add to the fact that the beta was moved, and none of gaile greys resolutions came true for 08 leads me to beleive the game is delay because of techical problems. There probably isn't any screenshots to show that why they are not showing them, because they are probably scrapping their first attempt of the game.
BTW, why would anyone beleive a inventor conference calls after enron and the latest bank melt down, its clear that company try to make cushion them things to get more investors. Out of curiousity, i wonder how many times DNF was been mentioned my 3DRealms investors reports.

Rocky Raccoon · Jan 21, 2009, 11:48 PM // 23:48

[quote=Ctb;4458737] Prove it [quote]

Likewise, disprove it.

Gigashadow · Jan 21, 2009, 11:50 PM // 23:50

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shadowmoon

Or they simplify have run into some trouble that is delaying their intial plans, which i suppect is their game engine. Original gw2 was suppose to run on a modified gw1 engine, but they recently (this past fall) lincessed another game engine.

I was curious about that when I saw the Umbra licensing deal, but Umbra is not actually an engine, it plugs into an engine and is used to reduce the amount of rendering needed by culling. Check out http://www.umbrasoftware.com/, there's a demo on there too to show what it does. If you look at their customer list you can see that it is used with various games that all have different engines, but isn't an engine itself.

Gun Pierson · Jan 21, 2009, 11:53 PM // 23:53

“Rather than spend resources developing a new occlusion system to meet the demands of our next game we decided to license technology from the experts. This allowed us to get up and running with sophisticated culling quickly.”
- Jim Scott, ArenaNet’s lead graphics programmer

EDIT: thanks for the link Gigashadow

Gigashadow · Jan 21, 2009, 11:56 PM // 23:56

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gun Pierson

Does anyone live near the office in Belleveu? I'm wondering if much activity is still going on there, or that just a dozen of people show up every morning to maintain the servers and the live team.

They are just down the road from my house, walking distance actually, but walking over there to check them out would just be creepy and stalkerish.

Gun Pierson · Jan 22, 2009, 12:11 AM // 00:11

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gigashadow

They are just down the road from my house, walking distance actually, but walking over there to check them out would just be creepy and stalkerish.

Do you have binoculars?

I wasn't talking about stalking or any creepy stuff, just a quick look at the parking lot when you happen to pass by or something. You don't have to ninja the office.

But I understand ofcourse.

balamoor · Jan 22, 2009, 12:20 AM // 00:20

Quote:

Originally Posted by Obrien Xp

If you look at the GW2 FAQ they state that GW WILL CONTINUE (this will provide those new to Tyria to get their HoM and see what happened 250years ealrier.

Anet carries with it's promisies.
Ubisoft on the other hand... is known for vaporware.
The definition of vaporware states "long past due date" a quarter in the vidgame industry isn't alot when it comes to development.

You know that is awesome..I completely missed that, GW is one of my favorite games, I have so many awesome people there..it's good to know it will continue.

Shadowmoon · Jan 22, 2009, 12:22 AM // 00:22

I stand corrected about the game engine issue, but still the silence mostly makes me think that something isn't working out. It to be honest I would like to be proved wrong, I want gw2 to be a good game, why else would i be trying to get all the HoM title statues. Just when it been this long with no information, especially in the context of Gailes Resolution, it hard for me to not think problems didn't happen.
BTW, most of the time in logic, the burden of proof is on the positive, so when you make the statement, its up to you to prove it, not up to them to disprove it.

balamoor · Jan 22, 2009, 12:23 AM // 00:23

Quote:

Originally Posted by Martin Firestorm

Huh? You mean more storage? Hardly major stuff.

Silly that is just the first content update they said updates throughout 2009...some people honestly get off on pessimisms and negativity, lighten up.

fog_of_redoubt · Jan 22, 2009, 01:02 AM // 01:02

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gigashadow

They are just down the road from my house, walking distance actually, but walking over there to check them out would just be creepy and stalkerish.

You need to find out what bars they hang out in after work.

Maybe you can hang out and catch some rumors