Curse

Lishy · Jul 21, 2009, 08:39 PM // 20:39

I don't understand this argument. What's the big deal? Is it not so called "fair"?

Coney · Jul 21, 2009, 11:42 PM // 23:42

I don't see why not. As long as people purchase new accounts, that means revenue for GW, and prolongs the game longevity.

The last 2 months however, there's been no new wealth based on zkeys - but hopefully they fix it.

Martin Alvito · Jul 21, 2009, 11:50 PM // 23:50

Quote:

Originally Posted by Daesu

Precisely why I am against annoucing the end of the XTH. A zkey price spike would only serve those rich minority who have hoard huge quantities of zkeys to sell. It would make it more difficult for the other players to obtain the title or to acquire rare skin weapons.

OK, let me put a theory on the table.

If we have a high jumping competition, but we set the maximum bar height very low, the competition is pointless. Lots of people jump over the maximum bar height, and everyone that could do better is made worse off.

If we remove the cap on bar height, everyone can take pride in the height that they are able to jump, and people that are not the best are given motivation to work and improve.

If I had a Stygian Reaver drop in Halls 18 months ago, I was excited. Today, I would wipe my ass with it, but it would hurt.

The more you diversify the possible accomplishments in the game, and the more challenging you make them, the better off everyone is.

Now, killing XTH would definitely have the undesirable side effect of rewarding everyone with the foresight to have already invested in zkeys (either by getting the title or hoarding them). But the point is that this never should have been permitted in the first place, and this side effect doesn't present a compelling argument for why the madness should be permitted to continue.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Daesu

That is why I said zkeys should not be a currency and I have told people this many times. Once people understands why, stop accepting them, then they wont be losing out. If you accepted them as currency and you made a loss, then it is your problem for not listening.

This doesn't follow from the logic. It's easy at any given time to convert X ecto to Y zkeys. The only reasonable argument against accepting the zkeys is your unwillingness to invest Z amount of time making the exchange...but if you get enough zkeys in the transaction, you'd always be stupid to refuse to take the zkeys.

People aren't going to stop accepting them because they have intrinsic value. In many ways, they're safer than the ecto. Eventually, enough people are going to wake up, recognize how many ectos are out there, and drive another panic. You won't observe a panic with zkeys.

Daesu · Jul 22, 2009, 12:40 AM // 00:40

Quote:

Originally Posted by Martin Alvito

Now, killing XTH would definitely have the undesirable side effect of rewarding everyone with the foresight to have already invested in zkeys (either by getting the title or hoarding them). But the point is that this never should have been permitted in the first place, and this side effect doesn't present a compelling argument for why the madness should be permitted to continue.

You said it yourself, killing XTH would cause a price spike in zkeys and reward the minority who hoard them. This would HURT the majority of the gamers as they would have a harder time maxing the title and getting rare skins and benefit the people who are already rich in zkeys and other commodities. Making the poor poorer and the rich richer, how is that good for the game?

Quote:

People aren't going to stop accepting them because they have intrinsic value. In many ways, they're safer than the ecto. Eventually, enough people are going to wake up, recognize how many ectos are out there, and drive another panic. You won't observe a panic with zkeys.

Then they made a mistake. I certainly stopped accepting them for my transactions when they were valued at 5k each. Furthermore, if XTH is stopped, the amount of available zkeys in the hands of the common players would be reduced since more people would be using them up for titles. Therefore they would stop being a currency either way.

Martin Alvito · Jul 22, 2009, 01:27 AM // 01:27

Quote:

Originally Posted by Daesu

You said it yourself, killing XTH would cause a price spike in zkeys and reward the minority who hoard them. This would HURT the majority of the gamers as they would have a harder time maxing the title and getting rare skins and benefit the people who are already rich in zkeys and other commodities. Making the poor poorer and the rich richer, how is that good for the game?

Your argument is extremely narrow - doing X would have distributional consequences that favor a minority, and therefore we should not do X. I can think of at least three situations that, if true, would invalidate this argument:

1) Utilitarian - if the tiny minority has a sufficiently high value for the price spike and the majority doesn't care that much, then societal utility is maximized via the price spike.

2) XTH is destroying value by devaluing the acquisition of zranks, and the damage from this outweighs the harm caused by the price spike.

3) XTH is contributing to the hyperinflation of rare items, and the distributional consequences from that issue far outweigh the distributional consequences you are concerned about.

I'm sure that #3 is true, I believe that #2 is true but the conjecture is purely theoretical and not testable, and I doubt that #1 is true. If you're worried about the rich getting richer, well, that's happening because the rich own ultra-rare miniatures and items whose value is constantly increasing, NOT because of increases in value of their zkey stashes.

Who do you think is actually using most of the zkeys, anyway? The people that are all excited about XTH resell them for cash to buy other stuff they want. Guess where those zkeys end up.

In short, the XTH is like trickle down economics. A rising tide may lift all boats, but if you dump a bunch of cash into the system ultimately the rich get richer. Reaganomics and the Bush tax cuts should convince you of this.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Daesu

Then they made a mistake. I certainly stopped accepting them for my transactions when they were valued at 5k each. Furthermore, if XTH is stopped, the amount of available zkeys in the hands of the common players would be reduced since more people would be using them up for titles. Therefore they would stop being a currency either way.

You're just wrong. Both markets are liquid, meaning that you can convert back and forth at some price at any time. If the market exchange rate is X ecto:Y zkeys, and the opportunity cost of the time needed to convert the items is Z, then X ecto = Y+Z zkeys if you prefer ecto and X+Z ecto = Y zkeys if you prefer zkeys. Either way, if the amount of the less preferred currency is sufficiently great, you should accept the trade. It's not like you're married to the zkeys if you accept them. You can always go trade them for ecto or sell them for cash and then buy ecto with the cash.

One of the more interesting implications is that if you have more than one currency and the exchange market is liquid, you can ALWAYS make money via arbitraging between players with different preferences. I did this once for a couple of weeks until I got bored, but made a tidy sum of ectos and zkeys (at a per hour rate that compared with event item farming).

This works the same way in real life; it's one of the reasons that a seat on an exchange floor has value. (The others are reaction speed in a boom or panic and informational advantage.)

People were using zkeys for currency early in XTH's run, and there's still a fair quantity of them floating around at the moment. They would not be destroyed as a currency if the XTH were removed because there is ALWAYS a market for their resale, but their actual use would become much less predominant if the number of keys in the system diminished over time. They'd be like Sacagawea dollar coins - perfectly legal tender, but you don't see them all that often.

Improvavel · Jul 22, 2009, 01:45 AM // 01:45

Quote:

Originally Posted by Martin Alvito

snip

Do you know how much wealth do I have?
Does it matter?
If I told you I have 1000 accounts and have over 1 million zaishen keys, would you have an heart attack and die or be there all night long cursing the gods because of this grievous injustice?
If I told you I bought 10 mini polar bears, 2 mini pandas and 3 mini kaanaxai with all the zkeys generated by the my 1000 accounts, will that affect your life?

And what would be the difference from that to:

"I'm a fat guy, I play GW 18 hours per day, I've abused every single conceivable farm and some that were destroyed before the public know, I'm in a guild that farms DoA and UW all day long, so I get 5 armbraces and 100 ectos per day. With all that money I farmed I bought 10 mini polar bears, 2 mini pandas and 3 mini kaanaxai".

Either you don't need money and you can play GW all day long, farming/power trading, to get those luxury items or you can't play all day long but you can dish the money you make and buy accounts.

Sincerely, next we will have a thread asking to limit the number of hours a given account can play per day because people can't compete with that!

Time is money explains this quite easily!

Shadowspawn X · Jul 22, 2009, 01:49 AM // 01:49

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kain Fz

I don't understand this argument. What's the big deal? Is it not so called "fair"?

Its definitely fair in the sense that it has equal opportunity for any GW player to buy as many accounts as she/he wants. The question is is it ethically acceptable. Many players define a game as a competitive activity involving skill, chance, or endurance on the part of two or more persons who play according to a set of rules or something like that. The point of concern is that a player should have reasonable expectations that purchasing one copy of the game allows him to play the game and compete in every aspect on equal footing. Hence the feeling of betrayal eluded to by players like Martin Alvito in paragraph 17 of post #199.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Daesu

zkeys should never have been made into currency because of the number of accounts that were participating in XTH.

This is the fault of Anet. The official in game currency of gold/plat has been devalued to the point of irrelevancy. Hyperinflation has set in a long time ago causing players to seek alternate currency, since they cannot hold enough gold on their toon to keep up with inflation. Anet has instituted a system of benign neglect when it comes to the economy.

By not nerfing 55ing in August of 2005, letting ursan remain unchecked for a year, and not knocking SF back into the stone age they have destroyed the economy of GW. The influx of currency from XHT is quit possibly the last straw. Not to mention the replacement of the effective anti-farming code for the much more lenient loot scaling which led to the proliferation of botting. The botting issue has only been brought under control by efforts of a few dedicated employees who care about the game. Our esteemed ex-CR Gaille Gray being a driving force to her credit.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Martin Alvito

.
The problem with your argument is that there is nothing that the individual can do about it. The individual selling/receiving the zkeys has no control over their price. Unless you are buying/selling a gargantuan quantity, you are a price taker.

You are absolutely right. However, the effect of many individuals with the same mind set will have an effect on the economy keeping the zkeys from their true equilibrium price.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Martin Alvito

.
A better question to ask is: what is the overall impact of rewarding multiple account holders on ANet's future? It's obvious that this benefits them in the short run. However, what is the probable impact on GW2 sales? My sense is that XTH keys don't make people that much happier than they would be in its absence, but that hatred of the XTH runs deep because it represents a betrayal of principles.

Leaves a bad taste in my mouth. This type of mechanic needs to go away and never resurface again.

Martin Alvito · Jul 22, 2009, 02:20 AM // 02:20

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shadowspawn X

You are absolutely right. However, the effect of many individuals with the same mind set will have an effect on the economy keeping the zkeys from their true equilibrium price.

"True" market value is a nonexistent chimera. What we can say with confidence is that certain distortions (eg: Rare Material Trader) will produce specific effects of uncertain magnitude.

The players' preferences and psychology are always exogenous to any economic model. All you can do is specify them properly, because you get worthless results if you don't. It doesn't matter where those preferences come from; you judge the validity of the preference specification by the quality of the model's results as compared to real data.

You can explain the empirical phenomenon without your assumption, and the logic of the explanation is internally consistent (if more complicated), so we're better off if we don't make it. Under certain conditions, that assumption is likely to blow up, so making that assumption is likely to lead us into error. What if we have another great ecto panic, as we did after HM's introduction and during the Chaos Plains farm?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Improvavel

Do you know how much wealth do I have?
Does it matter?
If I told you I have 1000 accounts and have over 1 million zaishen keys, would you have an heart attack and die or be there all night long cursing the gods because of this grievous injustice?
If I told you I bought 10 mini polar bears, 2 mini pandas and 3 mini kaanaxai with all the zkeys generated by the my 1000 accounts, will that affect your life?

I could care less about you. What concerns me is that OTHER players are denied the opportunity to earn those items via gameplay. Your hypothetical fat kid that grinds incessantly packs up his toys and leaves for greener pastures if the end goals become unattainable. That sucks, because all of that time investment has probably turned him into a pretty competent player of the game that is no longer made of fail. He's also not buying the next game, which is also a bad thing in the long term.

If something like XTH sends prices through the roof, that increases the amount of time investment needed to garner the same return. That impacts my life. I'm not willing to be said fat guy that plays the game incessantly to achieve my goals.

Limiting (reasonably) the amount of time players could spend in-game is a better idea than you think it is. You'd improve the health of the true addicts and improve the quality of the servers. How are these effects bad?

The barkeep is still responsible for cutting someone off in this country, right? A free country does not mean unlimited freedom. Nor should it.

Improvavel · Jul 22, 2009, 02:35 AM // 02:35

Quote:

Originally Posted by Martin Alvito

I could care less about you. What concerns me is that OTHER players are denied the opportunity to earn those items via gameplay.

If they could earn those items via gameplay you would have a point.

Since they can't it doesn't matter.

All the other items can be gained via gameplay regardless XTH.

Daesu · Jul 22, 2009, 04:00 AM // 04:00

Quote:

Originally Posted by Martin Alvito

1) Utilitarian - if the tiny minority has a sufficiently high value for the price spike and the majority doesn't care that much, then societal utility is maximized via the price spike.

2) XTH is destroying value by devaluing the acquisition of zranks, and the damage from this outweighs the harm caused by the price spike.

3) XTH is contributing to the hyperinflation of rare items, and the distributional consequences from that issue far outweigh the distributional consequences you are concerned about.

I'm sure that #3 is true, I believe that #2 is true but the conjecture is purely theoretical and not testable, and I doubt that #1 is true. If you're worried about the rich getting richer, well, that's happening because the rich own ultra-rare miniatures and items whose value is constantly increasing, NOT because of increases in value of their zkey stashes.

#1 is not true. For #2, the value of zrank depends on the individuals so I agree that it is not testable. #3 is not true too because the prices of many of these rare items did come down ever since XTH was first introduced. Furthermore, if more people have access to zkeys then there should be more of these rare items in the market. Since the supply of these rare items shot up, then their demand would come down.

Quote:

Who do you think is actually using most of the zkeys, anyway? The people that are all excited about XTH resell them for cash to buy other stuff they want. Guess where those zkeys end up.

Not necessarily. Like you have said for #2 above, if they prefer to use the zkeys to invest in their title, then they wont be reselling them for cash.

Quote:

You're just wrong. Both markets are liquid, meaning that you can convert back and forth at some price at any time. If the market exchange rate is X ecto:Y zkeys, and the opportunity cost of the time needed to convert the items is Z, then X ecto = Y+Z zkeys if you prefer ecto and X+Z ecto = Y zkeys if you prefer zkeys. Either way, if the amount of the less preferred currency is sufficiently great, you should accept the trade. It's not like you're married to the zkeys if you accept them. You can always go trade them for ecto or sell them for cash and then buy ecto with the cash.

You made the assumption that I would be interested to continue trading my zkeys off for other goods. That assumption is wrong since further trading would take up more of my time away from actually playing this game so there is an opportunity cost involved. How much value does this amount of my time (Z) cost? It differs from person to person. If a zkey was worth 5k, then I made it the responsibility of the person whom I am trading with, to sell his zkeys for gold or ectos before commencing trade with me. If he can get 5k for each of his zkeys, fine, otherwise if he could only get less than 5k, he would have to chip in more gold to make the trade.

Quote:

They'd be like Sacagawea dollar coins - perfectly legal tender, but you don't see them all that often.

And that would be a sad day indeed for many players, especially those who have bought extra accounts because they were led to believe, from ANet's website, that having more accounts gives the potential of greater rewards from XTH.

Besides, I rather see the majority of the players happy when XTH is reopened, than to see a handful of greedy zkey hoarders rubbing their hands together to exploit the market.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shadowspawn X

Its definitely fair in the sense that it has equal opportunity for any GW player to buy as many accounts as she/he wants. The question is is it ethically acceptable. Many players define a game as a competitive activity involving skill, chance, or endurance on the part of two or more persons who play according to a set of rules or something like that.

It is ethical because the gold reward from this game doesn't come from skill but from time spent playing it. If you spend 100 hours farming, you would be expected to earn more than someone who, with the same skill level, only spent 50 hours farming the exact same way.

If it is from TIME instead of skill, then the question of the player's lifestyle would come in. Does the player have a full time job? Does he have other responsibilities like bathing/dressing up his kids and getting them ready? The player with more real life responsibilities would have lesser time to play this game, even if he/she has a higher skill level than the irresponsible brat that can afford to play GW 8 hours a day. So in GW, the RICHER player isn't necessarily the MORE SKILLFUL player.

But at least the guy, with a fulltime job, spent his/her time working ("farming") to get real money, which the kid with absolutely no real life responsibilities whatsoever loses out on. This is when buying extra accounts can help equalize.

Quote:

since they cannot hold enough gold on their toon to keep up with inflation.

Then they should have used ectos. At least we have a trader for that, so their prices are more stable than zkeys.

esthetic · Jul 22, 2009, 05:13 AM // 05:13

A section of posts from the official Guild Wars Wiki under Regina's talk section.

"Considering, the Guild Wars skeleton krewe is already working at capacity, things get prioritized and XTH does not seem to be on the front burner. I do not hear any news or updates at all from ANet or its employees. I hear rumblings from people who want to get rid of XTH for silly notions of jealousy, vanity, and ego. It has been my opinion that the loudest chick in the nest gets the worm and I hope these anti XTH have not been chirping the loudest. XTH has been a big part of the game for me. I look forward to every month of predictions and observing the matches. Looking over the guilds to see what they are running who is playing for who. I really missed that part of the game last month and this month. Of course I can still observe and follow it but without any sense of reward the thrill is just not there. If XTH predictions goes, it will disappoint a lot of fans.--Esth 02:43, 21 July 2009 (UTC)

Unless you're actually part of the crew, or near them (fly on the wall?), you don't know what's on the front burner any more than us. So the whole bird thing is just cuckoo talk. If they removed it for fixing, I'm pretty sure it's top priority. -- Alaris_sig Alaris 13:29, 21 July 2009 (UTC)

My comments are from after reading Regina's July 7 journal entry, as well as the lack of comments thereafter on the XTH.

"One of the things the Live Team has been working on is much planning for future updates. This includes talking about features that we think should be included. We have had discussions about the Test Krewe, and what the game update schedule will be like with the Test Krewe involved. We have been working with other functional teams in the office to help create an infrastructure that will support our organizational needs for the Test Krewe. The team we're working with is not full time on GW1 so, their time is at a premium. Other discussion has pertained to Henchman in GvG, and technical and administrative logistics and planning behind that. Another project is Xunlai Tournament House. We're digging into the code for XTH. Know that we're continuing to plug away at it. Incidentally, the folks working on Xunlai, have been drafted in to help with this, meaning that they are not full time on GW1 either, so their time must be scheduled carefully as well." Regina's July 7, 2009 Journal Entry

From this I get that XTH is not "Top" priority but at the bottom of the listed current matters. --Esth 17:52, 21 July 2009 (UTC)

The main bit of information from that quote is that we do not have one person who's sole job is to work on XTH. Like many in the company, people work on different projects at the same time. I did not give an indication of how it is being prioritized in comparison to other projects. As to the OP's question, regarding compensation for downtime, I've passed along your question for consideration and they'll evaluate it. --Regina Buenaobra Image:User_Regina_Buenaobra_sig.png 18:45, 21 July 2009 (UTC)"

Martin Alvito · Jul 22, 2009, 06:09 AM // 06:09

Quote:

Originally Posted by Improvavel

If they could earn those items via gameplay you would have a point.

Since they can't it doesn't matter.

All the other items can be gained via gameplay regardless XTH.

Wrong. You play the game, you get stuff. You get enough stuff, you trade it for the rare shinies you want. People want ecto/zkeys/armbraces for their ultra-rare shinies.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Daesu

#3 is not true too because the prices of many of these rare items did come down ever since XTH was first introduced. Furthermore, if more people have access to zkeys then there should be more of these rare items in the market. Since the supply of these rare items shot up, then their demand would come down.

We're not talking about the same rare items here. I'm talking about the stuff that no longer drops (q7s, limited minis) or rarely drops (q8s). Any chimp can get an eternal blade.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Daesu

Not necessarily. Like you have said for #2 above, if they prefer to use the zkeys to invest in their title, then they wont be reselling them for cash.

OK, let's talk about the flow of transactions in our game world.

Suppose that a few million zkeys are minted from XTH every month. Some of these keys hang around, some of them get used by the owners of XTH accounts, and some of them get resold on the open market.

We can infer from the fact that the price didn't crater (and all the r9+ zrank players running around) that a significant share of the keys were used. We can also infer from the fact that the price declined every month that letting the keys rot in the box was probably a minority strategy (it isn't rational, given sensible beliefs about the future).

Let's assume a skewed distribution of wealth, just like in real life: most players don't have a lot of money and a few have a very great deal of it.

So, the punchline: Where did the zkeys from XTH that players resold go?

The answer is obvious: they were used to open the Zaishen Chest by a minority of players with the resources to purchase large quantities of zkeys.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Daesu

You made the assumption that I would be interested to continue trading my zkeys off for other goods.

Incorrect. I am merely stating the patently obvious: the time price is finite and you can place a finite value upon it. This is most easily seen by example: if someone offered you 1750 zkeys for your q9 Eternal Blade six months ago, you would have taken that deal. In other words, a quantity of zkeys greater than you have sense existed.

You are correct that the time price Z varies from person to person, but the calculation is simple - what was the average expected value of the time foregone? If you could have been farming up 40k/hour, and it would have taken you half an hour to dump the zkeys, you'd need 20k in zkeys to make the transaction worth your time.

If you refused business by compelling players to sell their zkeys themselves, you clearly cost yourself money. I'm not saying that you should have accepted zkeys at "face" value. I'm simply saying that accepting them at a discount was the proper play.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Daesu

And that would be a sad day indeed for many players, especially those who have bought extra accounts because they were led to believe, from ANet's website, that having more accounts gives the potential of greater rewards from XTH.

Personally, I think the whole situation stinks to high heaven. My suspicion is that those of you who purchased accounts for XTH have nothing to worry about. ANet has a choice - offend those who will *probably* be upset by continuing the XTH or those who will *certainly* be upset because they spent their hard-earned cash to exploit the XTH. This is sort of like a recent Senate election where I was asked to choose between a candidate that was probably corrupt and one that was certainly corrupt. Easy choice, right? XTH will ultimately reopen. For the devs, XTH is a Faustian bargain - great short term gains resulting in long term loss, but you can't walk away from the deal once you make it to avoid that nasty long term loss.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Daesu

Besides, I rather see the majority of the players happy when XTH is reopened, than to see a handful of greedy zkey hoarders rubbing their hands together to exploit the market.

Me and my 22 zkeys garnered from the last two weekend events, eh?

Your proposition is too high-risk for me. My guess is that the XTH will reopen eventually, and I cannot predict when that news will break. When that news does break, anyone long on zkeys will get burned badly. Why assume that risk when there are much better, safer ways?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Daesu

It is ethical because the gold reward from this game doesn't come from skill but from time spent playing it. If you spend 100 hours farming, you would be expected to earn more than someone who, with the same skill level, only spent 50 hours farming the exact same way.

Dead wrong. Some methods of making money are more efficient than others, and the best ones often do not make the public domain or are simply too difficult to become mass standards. Skill (doing that which others cannot figure out how to do) can substitute for time. I've got a life, a wife, a kid and a dissertation project - but I still want to see the game's economy remain the game's economy and keep IRL cash out of it altogether.

The kid with no responsibilities is hopelessly outgunned, because he has no pressure to innovate. Time just isn't precious, and as a result the kid will not ruthlessly hunt down the last scraps of efficiency that produce a large competitive edge.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Daesu

Then they should have used ectos. At least we have a trader for that, so their prices are more stable than zkeys.

Except when ecto prices are not. The shifts in zkey pricing have been more or less predictable. The shifts in ecto pricing have been catastrophic. What the trader does is artificially hold the situation in equilibrium until it is simply unsustainable. Once the dam breaks, all hell breaks loose.

Improvavel · Jul 22, 2009, 06:27 AM // 06:27

Quote:

Originally Posted by Martin Alvito

Wrong. You play the game, you get stuff. You get enough stuff, you trade it for the rare shinies you want. People want ecto/zkeys/armbraces for their ultra-rare shinies.

The ultra rare shinies are things you can't get with regular gameplay.

Buying a magazine or winning some prize in a contest that was only restricted to a country or whatever don't seem that different from buying accounts.

Anyway, the ultra rare shinies are restricted to some minipets and some one event only weapon skins.

Declaring the GW economy ill because some amount of items that can be measure in thousands, when there are millions upon millions, probably billions of items, got a boost in price, is ridiculous.

It is obvious that since there are only thousands of those limited items and millions of players, only a small portion of the population can acquire them.

Martin Alvito · Jul 22, 2009, 06:59 AM // 06:59

Quote:

Originally Posted by Improvavel

The ultra rare shinies are things you can't get with regular gameplay.

Tell that to my Greased Lightning.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Improvavel

Buying a magazine or winning some prize in a contest that was only restricted to a country or whatever don't seem that different from buying accounts.

There's all the difference in the world! In one case, you were lucky. In the other, you paid money. If Eternal Blades were sold in the in-game store, rather than were distributed via luck, this forum would be up in arms.

Those that purchased magazines or the Factions/NF collector edition derived a very limited benefit, because so many of the darned things were given away. When five bucks spent on a magazine turns into a miniature worth 50k - so what? When ten bucks spent on an account turns into a million gold, we have a problem. It's a matter of degree, and the XTH is a sizable gift that keeps on giving.

Let's put the magnitude of the problem into perspective. A player that bought thirty accounts and played XTH semi-competently with them could have acquired enough wealth to buy an undedicated Island Guardian or rank 11 Zaishen rank by now. That's just three hundred bucks (using the lowest promo pricing for Prophecies which started in December '07) - low enough to tempt people to do it.

Yes, I have met people with dozens of accounts. The pattern I have heard is that such players initially bought a few accounts (like many of us), inherited others from players that left, and later bought a bunch of accounts at a retail promo price to exploit XTH.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Improvavel

Anyway, the ultra rare shinies are restricted to some minipets and some one event only weapon skins.

Nope. Unconditional and req 7 weapons really did drop for the fortunate. The Miniature Ghostly Hero and Miniature Greased Lightning are given away in-game. Same for items such as the Miniature Mallyx, Gwen Doll, Yakkington, and Celestial Pig that are rarer and more coveted than most of the miniatures given away by magazine codes.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Improvavel

Declaring the GW economy ill because some amount of items that can be measure in thousands, when there are millions upon millions, probably billions of items, got a boost in price, is ridiculous.

These items are the carrots that keep the draft horse plodding. Since there isn't any other reason to continue playing PvE after completing the main storyline unless you like title grind...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Improvavel

It is obvious that since there are only thousands of those limited items and millions of players, only a small portion of the population can acquire them.

But a much larger subset of the population desires to possess them. Take that hope away, and that segment of the population loses interest and leaves.

It doesn't have to be feasible for all of them to succeed, but it does have to be feasible for those players to try.

Cacheelma · Jul 22, 2009, 07:13 AM // 07:13

Quote:

Originally Posted by esthetic

"Considering, the Guild Wars skeleton krewe is already working at capacity, things get prioritized and XTH does not seem to be on the front burner. I do not hear any news or updates at all from ANet or its employees. I hear rumblings from people who want to get rid of XTH for silly notions of jealousy, vanity, and ego. It has been my opinion that the loudest chick in the nest gets the worm and I hope these anti XTH have not been chirping the loudest. XTH has been a big part of the game for me. I look forward to every month of predictions and observing the matches. Looking over the guilds to see what they are running who is playing for who. I really missed that part of the game last month and this month. Of course I can still observe and follow it but without any sense of reward the thrill is just not there. If XTH predictions goes, it will disappoint a lot of fans.--Esth 02:43, 21 July 2009 (UTC)

I like how Regina herself expects to be REWARDED for such mundane thing as making the XTH prediction. Isn't it the heart of GW that everything is "just for fun" and there's pretty much no tangible reward whatsoever no matter what you do (other than grinding, that is)?

Sure, XTH rewards people who make the right prediction choices. But to say that "the thrill is just not there" in regards to the game (even if it's just the prediction)? Isn't that pretty much a summary of how the entire GW franshire makes you feel after playing for a while?

I smell hypocrisy. Off-topic and all that.

careyt · Jul 22, 2009, 07:16 AM // 07:16

I am sure this has been mentioned before in this thread, but I'm not going to read all the posts and find it and stuff.

I would have a problem with this if in game gold actually gave one an advantage over others when it comes to playing the game.

I don't see how it actually effects the game in the least bit.

I've got a bit of gold saved up and have a few pretty fun farming builds that can keep me in gold pretty easy, but I know many friends of mine who have GWAMM r6 on multiple characters and have never once farmed and just saved up money from actually playing through the games and are just fine.

Martin Alvito · Jul 22, 2009, 07:44 AM // 07:44

We're not all you, careyt. We don't all share your preferences. The problem of in-game gold conferring an advantage during gameplay was resolved at the release of Factions, but that isn't the only thing that people care about.

People play games for different reasons. Some people play GW just to experience the story. Personally, I think that the story in GW is sophomoric, pathetic and not believable. If I want a game that capably tells a story, I'll fire up a game from Bioware.

Other players, like your friends, like to make title track bars go up. That's a slightly expensive proposition, but if they ground max Kurzick the old fashioned way, they'd have the money to deal with it. XTH can help here, but it's not the only solution.

Another pack of players likes sticking stuff in the Hall of Monuments. Depending on how crazy you get with the miniatures, this can get REALLY expensive.

Still other players just like to acquire the rare goodies. They want to make their characters look a certain way, or collect stuff that's hard to find, or just have stuff that very few people have.

It's the last two groups that care. In the view of those players, people that do not care neither need nor deserve a seat at the discussion, because any solution would be equally satisfactory to a player that doesn't care.

From an outcomes standpoint, dumping tons of in-game currency into the system disproportionately favors players like me that already have the super-rare shinies that people trade the in-game currency for. People that are out farming ecto usually aren't farming it to acquire FoW armor or chaos gloves. They're farming it because they want something else. Unfortunately, the rate of ecto and zkey creation is way out of whack, making the prices of the nicest stuff you can buy go up into the stratosphere. The price increases are reminiscent of the price shifts after the massive ecto and armbrace dupe in 2007.

From a morality standpoint, the problem with XTH is that ANet appears to have taken a hypocritical stance. They're against RMT, except when the proceeds end up in their own pockets. This displeases players who would prefer to play a game where in-game cash is not effectively sold through an online store. ANet's aggressive stance against RMT attracted and retained a large segment of the player base that finds RMT repulsive.

Killing XTH would bring the rate of zkey creation down to more manageable levels, relaxing the rate at which prices inflate. This is far from the only step that would need to be taken to address the current problem; either something also needs to be done about what's going on in UW or the trader that props up ecto prices needs to be removed or recoded. However, killing XTH would be a step in the right direction.

This is all academic, since ANet is now permanently wedded to the XTH system by business necessity. This does not, however, stop us from arguing about it.

Fril Estelin · Jul 22, 2009, 08:00 AM // 08:00

Quote:

Originally Posted by Martin Alvito

Another pack of players likes sticking stuff in the Hall of Monuments. Depending on how crazy you get with the miniatures, this can get REALLY expensive.

Still other players just like to acquire the rare goodies. They want to make their characters look a certain way, or collect stuff that's hard to find, or just have stuff that very few people have.

It's the last two groups that care. In the view of those players, people that do not care neither need nor deserve a seat at the discussion, because any solution would be equally satisfactory to a player that doesn't care.

You forgot title-hunters (although they're not required for GWAMM).

Quote:

From a morality standpoint, the problem with XTH is that ANet appears to have taken a hypocritical stance. They're against RMT, except when the proceeds end up in their own pockets.

I wouldn't fire guns on them so fast. IIRC there was a mention initially that it'd motivate players to look at the PvP scene and maybe make the jump. But I agree with you on the fact that this idea of getting RL money via XTH was in their mind (at the back IMHO).

Quote:

Killing XTH would bring the rate of zkey creation down to more manageable levels, relaxing the rate at which prices inflate.
...
This is all academic, since ANet is now permanently wedded to the XTH system by business necessity. This does not, however, stop us from arguing about it.

There are other solutions, such as go back to the initial idea by limiting the XTH rewards based on how much PvP you play or how much time you spent in obserser mode (I know it'd be abused by people afking observer mode, but ideally it could bring a few people to PvP?), which you'd ofc present as "augmenting the XTH rewards when you PvP or observe". You could even connect this to zquests via zoin rewards or something like "get double zoin rewards from PvP zquests" or special zquests. Design-wise there's a lot that can be done. And to be perfectly fair with Linsey and the Live Team, I'm still waiting for the "PvP <3" update to say more.

I know it'd be a bold (if not mad) move and there'd be complaints on forum (but if we look at Jeff Strain's statement from 2007, see other thread, that forums do not represent the population, it could be allright), but it's like when SF will be definitely nerfed.

Martin Alvito · Jul 22, 2009, 08:26 AM // 08:26

I didn't forget the title hunters; those are the people that like to make title track bars go up.

Observer mode is the worst thing that EVER happened to Guild Wars. Let's not go there.

The simplest "not kill it altogether" solution is to make it impossible to resell the zkeys from XTH. This at least dramatically attenuates the monetary factor. Even with ridiculously aggressive drop rate and pricing estimates, I can't come up with an expected value above 1.5k for a zkey. So you've effectively cut the problem of cash influx by more than half and deferred that influx to drops that don't make a hash of the economy to boot.

I prefer anything that forces people to invest substantial time in order to collect their XTH reward. The most elegant solution is to ramp up the XTH rewards as you complete Zaishen quests on that account during the course of the month. The real issue with the XTH isn't that it gives away keys; it's that it gives away keys with virtually no time investment.

If you make XTH no more time efficient than other farms, it's fine. That mission is accomplished as long as XTH makes you do something time-consuming you wouldn't otherwise do in order to receive sizable rewards. Making someone go play Fort Aspenwood for two hours in addition to their regular GvG and HA time would be enough. So would making someone kill a half-dozen bosses at twenty minutes a pop.

The problem you have there is that you're violating the implicit contract you marketed the additional accounts with. The purchasers of those accounts expected to get shinies "for free" every month after buying the account. If you add a time cost after the fact, a lot of those players would not have chosen to buy the account (or as many accounts) and feel cheated. This is bad for customer loyalty.

As a result, I only see prohibiting the resale of zkeys from XTH as a viable resolution. This accomplishes what is needed while only nerfing the RATE at which benefits from XTH can be collected. You've still got an RMT system, which sucks, but the second it was put into place ANet was wedded to that system forever. All you can realistically do is limit the damage once the genie is out of the bottle.

Shasgaliel · Jul 22, 2009, 08:58 AM // 08:58

Quote:

Originally Posted by Martin Alvito

OK, let me put a theory on the table.

If we have a high jumping competition, but we set the maximum bar height very low, the competition is pointless. Lots of people jump over the maximum bar height, and everyone that could do better is made worse off.

If we remove the cap on bar height, everyone can take pride in the height that they are able to jump, and people that are not the best are given motivation to work and improve.

If I had a Stygian Reaver drop in Halls 18 months ago, I was excited. Today, I would wipe my ass with it, but it would hurt.

The more you diversify the possible accomplishments in the game, and the more challenging you make them, the better off everyone is.

Now, killing XTH would definitely have the undesirable side effect of rewarding everyone with the foresight to have already invested in zkeys (either by getting the title or hoarding them). But the point is that this never should have been permitted in the first place, and this side effect doesn't present a compelling argument for why the madness should be permitted to continue.

Your argument with high jump is flawed since in gw drops do not depend on skill. I can be the worst player ever with an empty skill bar and still get the best drops. I can pay for fame farming service and get undead ghostly in halls first time being there and having an empty skill bar. In my opinion your are all trying to fix something which is not broken and forget about less fair things which are just the design based. XTH is a problem for you but someone doing UW 100 times and getting 1 ecto and some doing it once and getting 5 is fine?