Curse

snowman relic · Dec 22, 2009, 08:47 PM // 20:47

i did some math and was wondering if its true because polar bear drop is .34% if u do the run 300 times does it pretty much guarentee a mini polar bear in those 300 runs?

EDIT:havent they gone as low as 400e because of so many more drops this year? and is there any specific reason for the more dropped ie drop rate highened or is it just so many farmers

Another Felldspar · Dec 22, 2009, 08:56 PM // 20:56

No. And you have your percentages wrong. Statistically speaking opening the chest 30,000 times results in 1 Mini Polar Bear. For someone.

Eragon Zarroc · Dec 22, 2009, 08:58 PM // 20:58

pffft. player calculated drop rates are not exactly reliable and are somewhat speculative

. dont know what the true droprate is.

Miss Sarah Lauren · Dec 22, 2009, 09:00 PM // 21:00

nope everytime you open it you have a chance 1/30.000 to get one. It doesnt get more everytime you try it. Everytime its 1/30.000

Sarah

snowman relic · Dec 22, 2009, 09:02 PM // 21:02

so its like winning the lotto?

Ugh · Dec 22, 2009, 09:05 PM // 21:05

Theoretically, if you open the chest 30,000 times, you will get a MPB. But, it's not guaranteed.

Quote:

Originally Posted by the western warrior

so its like winning the lotto?

Pretty much.

Axeman002 · Dec 22, 2009, 09:05 PM // 21:05

Quote:

Originally Posted by the western warrior

so its like winning the lotto?

you got more chance of being ran over by a zebra in new york while a camel juggles 4 pots of water past the popes wedding on the 30th of february.

Kanna Banrai · Dec 22, 2009, 09:06 PM // 21:06

Quote:

Originally Posted by the western warrior

so its like winning the lotto?

I think you actually have a better chance to win the Lotto than getting a bear.

Mustache Mayhem · Dec 22, 2009, 09:10 PM // 21:10

yeah.. least in dungeon runs your looking at a rough 4% drop rate on the rares- if the drop rate is well under 1% as it seems.. your better off with a cox- but like the lottery if you don't play you can't win =]

Shadowspawn X · Dec 22, 2009, 09:16 PM // 21:16

I thought the drop rate was .00035 % or 1 in 2857.

mathiastemplar · Dec 22, 2009, 09:19 PM // 21:19

Just like the lottery... and said above.

Arduin · Dec 22, 2009, 09:21 PM // 21:21

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shadowspawn X

I thought the drop rate was .00035 % or 1 in 2857.

1 in 2857 =/= .00035 %.

mage767 · Dec 22, 2009, 09:24 PM // 21:24

You don't farm the bear, the bear farms you, i.e, it will pick an owner who is clueness and naive.

Divine Ashes · Dec 22, 2009, 09:29 PM // 21:29

I read the drop rate is (at best) .035%, or approximately 1/3000 chance.

http://www.wiki.guildwars.com/wiki/Wintersday_Chest

Marzipan Marci · Dec 22, 2009, 09:31 PM // 21:31

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arduinna

1 in 2857 =/= .00035 %.

but equals 0.035

Divine Ashes · Dec 22, 2009, 09:35 PM // 21:35

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marzipan Marci

but equals 0.035

1 in 2845 or whatever = .00035, or .035%

HawkofStorms · Dec 22, 2009, 09:38 PM // 21:38

Learn statistics. Nothing is "guaranteed" because of odds. If you flip a coin and it comes up tails... does that mean it is "guaranteed" to come up heads the next time? No.

Also, the reason it is valuable is because it is rare. If everybody could get one easily, then it would be worthless. Thus why it is like trying to win the lottery. If it wasn't, they'd be worthless.

Artisan Archer · Dec 22, 2009, 09:39 PM // 21:39

On wiki they just haven't had a drop yet in 2845 recorded drops. Droprate could be alot lower. It's definitely not reliable.

Reformed · Dec 22, 2009, 09:46 PM // 21:46

The mystical 0.035% figure was reached a remainder from rounding all the other items and is an approximation. Ever seen the movie Office Space? It's sort of like that except without an actual drop in the table the number is a complete guess.

Dec 22, 2009, 09:49 PM // 21:49

Instead of 2845 runs strength of snow quest, I could....
complete Tyria and GW:EN perhaps Cathan.
get my Legendary survivor title.
get my sweet tooth title.
complete 150 AB matches.