Curse

Mordakai · Nov 08, 2010, 06:54 PM // 18:54

Quote:

Originally Posted by drkn

They will, but not soon and not as much as the holders might wish and/or expect before the HoM calc came.

I forgot to mention shards. Just as HoM calc came, two-three days after, i bought 105 shards for 2-2,4k each, mostly from the trader. Now they're 4-4,6k there, that's double the price just after the update came. Quite much.

I've never seen Shards for more than 4.2k to buy from Trader, I've seen as low as 3.8k from trader (once).... and who would buy from trader when you can buy for 3.6k from people (I know, I bought 100 shards over the weekend).

But I'm still surprised the price hasn't gone down with all the SC going on... must be lots of people like me buying.

C R A Y O L A · Nov 08, 2010, 06:59 PM // 18:59

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skye Marin

People who once had 500k in their storage are now spending it all to fill their HoM, which adds previously inactive cash to the economy, and then removes it. Prices for in-demand items will rise because of the demand for them, however, all other prices will go down.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skye Marin

In short, everything related to the HoM will go up, and everything not will go down.

What?...
As people tend to farm for more in-demand items it causes a shortage of supply of all other items. It's simple economics. When there's no supply, prices rise. For example, diessa chalices and golden rin relics. What caused the prices for these items to rise? Doomlore Shrine has been inactive for awhile now and the supply died causing prices to go up.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skye Marin

This is not because of inflation, but because of deflation. Because Gold is being spent and removed from the economy (mostly from material traders and crafters) the value of gold is rising. Ecto will remain uneffected, and the prices of all things non-HoM will drop.

When any type of currency rises in value, it decreases the purchasing power of any given individual since they can't buy more what they could have potentially bought. The prices would go down, not up.

Since the HoM update, two things happened. Veterans came back and started pumping gold back into the market and suppliers have been migrating towards farming the items that have high demand (Destroyer weps, minipets, armbraces, etc) while the supply of items with no relation to HoM fall. So not necessarily ALL items go down in price. There will still be demand for other items causing a markup in prices.

Skye Marin · Nov 08, 2010, 07:08 PM // 19:08

Quote:

Originally Posted by Meridon

If the value of gold would be rising, everything else would be worth less gold. In other words, prices would drop. They're not. The main part of the economy is fully affected by the HoM update (minipets, ecto, zkeys, armbraces, consumables, etc), and as such there's no real deflation happening. Check out Fisher's Equation of Exchange to see what I mean.

That's what I said. Prices for things not related to the HoM (Voltaic Spears, very rare minipets, runes and dyes, etc) will be going down. It's a balance between gold being sunk and less demand for these types of items. I just wanted to correct that it's not inflation that is causing prices to rise for HoM-related items, but simply demand.

Quote:

Originally Posted by C R A Y O L A

Since the HoM update, suppliers have been migrating towards farming the items that have high demand (Destroyer weps, minipets, armbraces, etc) and the supply of items with no relation to HoM fall. So not necessarily ALL items go down in price. There will still be demand for other items causing a markup in prices.

This is pretty interesting. The workforce has migrated because the cost to do so is pretty small. You should still note that while the supply has gone down, the demand for Rin Relics and Superb Carvings likely has also gone down because they aren't tied to the HoM. Still, if supply has sunk more than demand, then prices would rise, as you said.

Ensign · Nov 08, 2010, 07:20 PM // 19:20

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skye Marin

This is not because of inflation, but because of deflation. Because Gold is being spent and removed from the economy (mostly from material traders and crafters) the value of gold is rising. Ecto will remain uneffected, and the prices of all things non-HoM will drop.

That's half the story. You have two counteracting large forces right now:

1). A very large amount of currency (gold) being removed from the game economy by the traders and crafters, as people craft items for the HoM. In the aggregate, this would cause nominal deflation.

2). A huge increase in currency velocity as previously inactive currency hits the market to suck up items for the HoM. This causes nominal inflation.

From what I've seen, (2) is outpacing (1), particularly as the stockpiles of key commodities have gotten depleted.

There are a couple particularly interesting cases:

Keys were stable early on before starting to rise steadily. I see this as a non-trivial supply of keys-as-currency meeting the demand for keys-as-commodity as those stocks were liquidated to buy other goods for the HoM. But the stockpiles of keys-as-currency were reasonably limited, and key prices are now dominated by their now supply-constrained consumer value.

Ecto prices haven't moved at all, though they've been a bit more volatile (ripples from a huge exchange volume). I've suspected for a while that ecto is very close to a pure currency now, with essentially no underlying commodity value. Seeing shards (which I'm pretty sure are close to pure commodity) spike while ecto didn't move at all reinforces this, as their commodity values should move together. The ecto overhang must be enormous.

C R A Y O L A · Nov 08, 2010, 07:21 PM // 19:21

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skye Marin

This is pretty interesting. The workforce has migrated because the cost to do so is pretty small. You should still note that while the supply has gone down, the demand for Rin Relics and Superb Carvings likely has also gone down because they aren't tied to the HoM. Still, if supply has sunk more than demand, then prices would rise, as you said.

Yah that's what I was thinking.
Items like the chalices and relics are interesting because they are:
1) Exclusive to CoF
2) Rare(every since EotN was released, I've had ONE relic drop)
- It should also be noted that you need 25 of these relics and 50 chalices for each collector item making it that much difficult.
3) Lack of interest in CoF

Despite the HoM update lowering overall demand, there is still a population of people out there willing to pay for these items. There will ALWAYS be demand for these items. Due to rarity and exclusivity, the prices increase.

joea64 · Nov 08, 2010, 07:32 PM // 19:32

I sold 50 chalices and 25 relics for the equivalent of 300k in ectos last week. Sold two oppressor weapons (energy storage staff and sword) for approx 100k in ectos as well.

Kattar · Nov 08, 2010, 07:33 PM // 19:33

Quote:

Sold two oppressor weapons (energy storage staff and sword) for approx 100k in ectos as well.

Got ripped off a little there then. Most of the ones I've seen over the past two weeks or so have been from 80 to 100k at least.

NerfHerder · Nov 08, 2010, 07:45 PM // 19:45

In addition, the GW economy has inherent flaws.

Lack of a Marketplace/Auction House + Inability to trade over 100k = Unstable Economy

novawhiz · Nov 08, 2010, 09:48 PM // 21:48

guildwars? economy? whaaaattt

Voodoo Rage · Nov 08, 2010, 11:26 PM // 23:26

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kattar

Got ripped off a little there then. Most of the ones I've seen over the past two weeks or so have been from 80 to 100k at least.

I got a pretty good deal on mine. The guys was spamming "WTS Oppressor Spear" over and over and I just assumed he was overpriced since he was spamming so much (local chat too). I finally asked him the price on it, and he flatly said "50k".

DokkyDok · Nov 09, 2010, 01:33 AM // 01:33

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeanBB

No mention of sweets / party / alcohol?

They are certainly in demand, but the glut from Halloween has lowered prices. I don't think they'll go back up until after the holidays. Thanksgiving and Wintersday drops/rewards will replenish supplies, then the market will creep back up until the next holiday.

I'm not too sure if they will rise significantly, given that its easy to get 40 statues in the honor monument without sweet/party/drunkard.

jazilla · Nov 09, 2010, 02:09 AM // 02:09

on the flip side, booze is at an all time low. I tried selling a few stacks of booze for 10k each and had to wait 20 minutes before anyone bought them. That used to be unheard of. Also, party points can be had easily at 150g each. In the past it was 200g per point at least. There is a little give and take in the market still, depending on what your poison is.

mrmango · Nov 09, 2010, 02:24 AM // 02:24

Quote:

Originally Posted by los!!!

I have noticed a big price drop in Voltaic Spears. Don't know why...:P

Because they aren't HoM-able. And this is for all rare skins that you can't put in a monument.

Dzjudz · Nov 09, 2010, 02:36 AM // 02:36

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrmango

Because they aren't HoM-able. And this is for all rare skins that you can't put in a monument.

Exactly. Several people I know are cashing in their Silverwing Recurve Bow to buy HoM-able stuff with the ectos. More supply and eagerness to sell is dropping the prices.

awry · Nov 09, 2010, 04:15 AM // 04:15

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ensign

That's half the story. You have two counteracting large forces right now:

1). A very large amount of currency (gold) being removed from the game economy by the traders and crafters, as people craft items for the HoM. In the aggregate, this would cause nominal deflation.

2). A huge increase in currency velocity as previously inactive currency hits the market to suck up items for the HoM. This causes nominal inflation.

From what I've seen, (2) is outpacing (1), particularly as the stockpiles of key commodities have gotten depleted.

There are a couple particularly interesting cases:

Keys were stable early on before starting to rise steadily. I see this as a non-trivial supply of keys-as-currency meeting the demand for keys-as-commodity as those stocks were liquidated to buy other goods for the HoM. But the stockpiles of keys-as-currency were reasonably limited, and key prices are now dominated by their now supply-constrained consumer value.

Ecto prices haven't moved at all, though they've been a bit more volatile (ripples from a huge exchange volume). I've suspected for a while that ecto is very close to a pure currency now, with essentially no underlying commodity value. Seeing shards (which I'm pretty sure are close to pure commodity) spike while ecto didn't move at all reinforces this, as their commodity values should move together. The ecto overhang must be enormous.

Wow a very insightful analysis and a good read to boot. But could you elaborate on the "overhang"? Do you mean that ectos have been accumulating in players' inventories as currency for so long that there isn't enough demand to change the market value?

Puddin Cheeks · Nov 09, 2010, 04:18 AM // 04:18

I'm just glad i decided to buy 2 stacks of diamonds and 2 stacks of onyx from trader a few years ago for 500 each.

Long Term investment paid off. FTW.

Yawgmoth · Nov 09, 2010, 05:35 AM // 05:35

Quote:

Originally Posted by shoesbags

I've noticed people trying to manipulate the market...keys are going up while ectos are going down, albeit slowly.

Relative price changes aren't a sign of market manipulation but a simple rise in demand for the zkeys.

Meridon · Nov 09, 2010, 09:11 AM // 09:11

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dzjudz

Exactly. Several people I know are cashing in their Silverwing Recurve Bow to buy HoM-able stuff with the ectos. More supply and eagerness to sell is dropping the prices.

Judge, the fact that I am cashing in a Q12 silverwing is because I bought a Q11, I'm not working at all for my HoM, since i'm not buying GW2

Mireles · Nov 09, 2010, 10:04 PM // 22:04

The only thing that is abundantly clear is that z-keys will be in short supply during times there are no festival events for pvp.... with pvp dying there is nobody to supply keys year round.

Mireles · Nov 09, 2010, 10:07 PM // 22:07

Quote:

Originally Posted by jazilla

on the flip side, booze is at an all time low. I tried selling a few stacks of booze for 10k each and had to wait 20 minutes before anyone bought them. That used to be unheard of. Also, party points can be had easily at 150g each. In the past it was 200g per point at least. There is a little give and take in the market still, depending on what your poison is.

Yeah this was because of how easy it was to get tot stacks this Halloween.... can expect the same for winters day...