Curse

My New Name · Dec 21, 2009, 04:21 PM // 16:21

gz steve...
wow i did only like 15ish runs so boooring zzzz

Malice Black · Dec 21, 2009, 04:22 PM // 16:22

Conspiracy theories...lol

It'll drop with the same rate as last year. So maybe another ~50 will enter the game.

I LOL hard when I see people spamming wtb MPB @ 300-500e. Silly dreamers.

Riot Narita · Dec 21, 2009, 04:22 PM // 16:22

Quote:

Originally Posted by Minami Kaori

53rd run?

I wonder if it's going to be like last year again... Namely, if you don't get a drop by your 100th run, then don't even bother.

Noooooo, I already passed 100 runs and no bear ;_;

Maybe we have to wait 25 mins before opening the chest (notice the 30 minute candy in the screenshot is close to running out)

Painbringer · Dec 21, 2009, 04:26 PM // 16:26

I will give it 4 no more still have a crap load of candy shards form last year

balordoman · Dec 21, 2009, 04:48 PM // 16:48

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hissy

Noooooo, I already passed 100 runs and no bear ;_;

Maybe we have to wait 25 mins before opening the chest (notice the 30 minute candy in the screenshot is close to running out)

hem.. the green rock is only 10 min ^^"

btw around 55run near to complete 4th stack of shards, no one bear ç_ç i want it for my collection ç_ç

Minami · Dec 21, 2009, 05:08 PM // 17:08

Well, today is my birthday ^_^ Hope I get lucky and one will drop for me

I adore them little cuties

Beverly heals · Dec 21, 2009, 05:10 PM // 17:10

Quote:

Originally Posted by itachimizu

pictures to prove it or it never happened(which i dont think it did w/a .00037% chance 3 in a row would be ungodly)

Thought the odds were around 0.0352%
Which is still low anyway

Riot Narita · Dec 21, 2009, 05:24 PM // 17:24

Quote:

Originally Posted by balordoman

hem.. the green rock is only 10 min ^^"

Woops, never use Green ones... assumed they were the same duration as Red.

Thalador Doomspeaker · Dec 21, 2009, 07:16 PM // 19:16

Could someone give a link to GWx2 and tell me how to use it, please? Also, I would appreciate if someone could give me hints on how to run the quest properly while using the software. Thanks in adavance! And good luck for all those who are still fighting against the odds (like me).

HawkofStorms · Dec 22, 2009, 12:54 AM // 00:54

Quote:

Originally Posted by Minami Kaori

53rd run?

I wonder if it's going to be like last year again... Namely, if you don't get a drop by your 100th run, then don't even bother.

????

So... flip a coin 8 times and it comes up heads 8 times.

Does that mean that the odds of getting tails the 9th time is any less then the previous 8? No.

Anyway, we all knew the odds were low. And they'd have to be. If the odds weren't low, these things wouldn't be valuable (and 99% of people complaining just want this thing so they can become instant millionares, the other 1% are the nutso hoarders and completionists who will actually pay 1000e for a mini).

Minami · Dec 22, 2009, 01:54 AM // 01:54

Quote:

Originally Posted by HawkofStorms

????

So... flip a coin 8 times and it comes up heads 8 times.

Does that mean that the odds of getting tails the 9th time is any less then the previous 8? No.

Anyway, we all knew the odds were low. And they'd have to be. If the odds weren't low, these things wouldn't be valuable (and 99% of people complaining just want this thing so they can become instant millionares, the other 1% are the nutso hoarders and completionists who will actually pay 1000e for a mini).

I was just saying that because, if I remember correctly, all the mini polar bear drops I've heard of last year happened before the lucky person's 100-150th run.

The odds are ridiculously low.
I don't belong to either "group" you mentioned, like I said before, I want one of those bears because they are super cute, I would not sell them, but I also would never pay the amount of money they go for, even if I could.
I'd be just as happy a camper(if I got one) if they were white minis and a common drop.
Right now though, I am happy for all the CC shards I'm getting

texeasons · Dec 22, 2009, 04:20 AM // 04:20

I've been playing for over 4 years, and just bought my first FoW armor. I don't farm ecto. So I obviously don't have the money to pay 1000e for one, but if I did get one I wouldn't sell it either. I want one to have. Did over 500 runs last year, no bear, don't know how many this year, stopped counting. Still no bear and over 2 stacks of shards. And sorry if that person I took a screen shot of wasn't really selling for 550e. People said they hadn't seen it and thought I would do them a favor to show that it was in the party search window.

Rexion · Dec 22, 2009, 05:06 AM // 05:06

I don't know how I was able to farm this run 200+ times last year?
I can barely stay online for more than 15 minutes this year.

Marvel-Kid · Dec 22, 2009, 05:17 AM // 05:17

80 or so runs, ZIP.... *cires* gimme a bear! I have a family (of one) to feed!!! lol

Aussie Boy · Dec 22, 2009, 08:34 AM // 08:34

Well coming up to 150 runs now and no bear I'm sure last year i got one in under 100 runs
but id have to search old threads and cant be a$$ rightnow.
have made almost 150,000xp for my survivor and thats why i'm doing the runs
not just for a MPB drop.
That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

upier · Dec 22, 2009, 09:09 AM // 09:09

Quote:

Originally Posted by Minami Kaori

Well, today is my birthday ^_^ Hope I get lucky and one will drop for me

I adore them little cuties

Happy Birthday.

Minami · Dec 22, 2009, 09:40 AM // 09:40

Thank you very much Upier ^_^

Windf0rce · Dec 22, 2009, 10:17 AM // 10:17

I did around 25-30 runs on the sunday (IIRC) and only around 5 yesterday (my guild keeps dragging me to the UW, lol). No bear.

I'll keep doing a few casual runs, I'm not on vacation so there isn't a lot of free time to run, but I shall try a few more.

PS: And happy b-day Kaori, best of luck with the bear.

isildorbiafra · Dec 22, 2009, 10:58 AM // 10:58

Did 60 runs sofar. No bear; but i have made almost 6 stacks of shards.

imnotyourmother · Dec 22, 2009, 04:02 PM // 16:02

woot I got a mINI Bear,,

not..

hummmm

drop rate of 0.000035%? I think that hell will freeze over before i get a mini