Curse

Skyy High · Jan 26, 2012, 04:28 PM // 16:28

I'm fairly certain that the people with sufficient means to distort the economy have already done so. The HoM has been around for literally years, and GW2 news has been coming steadily enough that everyone basically knew that it'd be out in the next year or so. In other words: I doubt we'll see much change now, even with the beta announcement.

Essence Snow · Jan 26, 2012, 04:44 PM // 16:44

Quote:

Originally Posted by fireflyry

Seriously, what relevance will that skin, reward, etc have after 2-3 months.So you can stand around with a "I grinded GW1 to death" hat?Sure it's all hypothesis but unless it's some uber cool aesthetic or gear that cant be surpassed by playing GW2 for a few weeks nobody will care for long.

I may be in the minority but I struggle to see the relevance of hundreds and hundreds of hours of grind only to look "uber" or "special" for a few months.

I hope I'm wrong but I'm thinking the HoM relevance and rewards will be a initial buzz for the vets and grinders but a big disappointment for most after a few weeks.

Each to their own.

Further down the road they will....think of the 1st year hats and such. They have no value other than cosmetic....everyone back then had them now tons want them

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gabs88

Rubies and Sapphires are allready in short demand and NOT farmable. Hence they will go up. This is actually a very safe way to keep currency as their value is far more stable then ectos.

.

With the lod fix rubies and sapphires have seen an increased supply

Gabs88 · Jan 26, 2012, 05:02 PM // 17:02

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iuris

Since so many of us have it, I don't think it will be all that impressive. Me, I'm looking forward to my little Raccoon, most of all

Well if you're still an active player it's not strange to have it after over 6 years. But the majority of guild wars players doesn't have it. I think at best 1:20 GW2 players will have one.

Martin Alvito · Jan 26, 2012, 05:25 PM // 17:25

To keep people from being misled, let me single out a particularly terrible set of assertions from a very wrongheaded post:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gabs88

Rubies and Sapphires are allready in short demand and NOT farmable. Hence they will go up. This is actually a very safe way to keep currency as their value is far more stable then ectos.

First of all, rubies and sapphires are a very poor way to keep currency. They suffer from the same problem as black dye: they are very difficult to resell in quantity. They are neither a common currency item, nor needed in large quantities by players. This means that you either have to spend a lot of time (which is valuable) to exit a position, or you have to eat the rare material trader's discount. The more intelligent traders understand these problems, and will not accept them as payment at their "face" value.

Second, their value is as susceptible to supply side shocks as any other item, but there isn't the demand side present to insulate you from those shocks. If either becomes easier to acquire through gameplay, more of them will get tradered and the price will go down. You won't be able to exit the position quickly due to the difficulty in reselling them, and you will get burned badly. This does offer the potential to make significant sums of money if updates make them become harder to acquire through gameplay, although as noted it's hard to realize those changes quickly due to the lack of a market.

By contrast, ectos tend to remain fairly constant in price due to the sheer number of players trading in them. Price fluctuations can and do happen, but they tend to be more gentle due to the difficulty in moving such a large market. If there is a strong supply side shock (eg: Shadow Form changes), then the resulting panic will get very ugly. But at least you know in advance that's the devil you're dealing with, and can react accordingly.

In short, calling rubies and sapphires "safe" or "low risk" is pretty much dead wrong when compared to your other options.

Finally, rubies and sapphires are not in "short demand". The premium on Vabbian armor if you pay the trader price is pretty minimal, and players only need a small quantity one time for the Hall of Monuments.

This is one of those cases where a little bit of knowledge truly is a very dangerous thing.

Daesu · Jan 26, 2012, 05:32 PM // 17:32

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kada

Alternatively I could wait until GW1 turns into a graveyard and people are desperate enough to lower their prices to something a bit more reasonable before I finish off my HoM with some of the more expensive pieces

Seriously? You would hold off starting GW2 with better stuff, using only default starter gear, while waiting for a better deal in GW1?

I seriously doubt most people care to do so if they have already decided to move on from this 6-7 year old game into GW2.

Just ditch your GW1 gold and move on already.

Quote:

Originally Posted by zwei2stein

More intereting thing to contemplate would be fate of "high end items" that do not contribute to HoM/GWAMM at all.

For example BDS, Frog scepters, etc...

Value drop can be expected as people will try to pawn then to fund statues and titles. How fast thou? Will they eventually be just merched, or will people still pay 5k to look cool while grinding various points?

Yup I think the prices of items like the diessa chalices/rin relics/destroyer cores/superb charr carvings etc. would drop. Those weapons of purity from WoC that can't be used for your HoM would drop their prices too.

Rare skins prices would also drop, especially those that are not HoM related.

Kada · Jan 26, 2012, 09:17 PM // 21:17

Quote:

Originally Posted by Daesu

Seriously? You would hold off starting GW2 with better stuff, using only default starter gear, while waiting for a better deal in GW1?

I seriously doubt most people care to do so if they have already decided to move on from this 6-7 year old game into GW2.

Just ditch your GW1 gold and move on already.

Yeah no, never said that I would hold off on GW2. My HoM already has all the gear pieces kitted out - the rest is just getting to the end for the pretty titles or mini pets, not something I particularly care about. I'll have the gear in GW2 because as I said I have my HoM already built up past the gear stages, so no...I won't be starting with default starter gear...where do you get that idea?

I am quite prepared to leave the inconsequential titles from the last parts of the HoM that don't mean much to me until they drop in price in GW1 because it's not the end of the world if I don't have them immediately. In fact, the title I like the most and plan to use is one I've already unlocked so that's got me covered for kit and title in GW2.

I actually also predict seeing people trade across game currencies so you may not need GW1 cash to buy your minipets etc for your HoM - because they've already said you can keep filling the HoM after the game has come out, I think many new GW2 players that want a HoM filled will attempt to trade GW2 cash for GW1 items.

Daesu · Jan 26, 2012, 09:35 PM // 21:35

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kada

Yeah no, never said that I would hold off on GW2. My HoM already has all the gear pieces kitted out - the rest is just getting to the end for the pretty titles or mini pets, not something I particularly care about. I'll have the gear in GW2 because as I said I have my HoM already built up past the gear stages, so no...I won't be starting with default starter gear...where do you get that idea?

I am quite prepared to leave the inconsequential titles from the last parts of the HoM that don't mean much to me until they drop in price in GW1 because it's not the end of the world if I don't have them immediately. In fact, the title I like the most and plan to use is one I've already unlocked so that's got me covered for kit and title in GW2.

I actually also predict seeing people trade across game currencies so you may not need GW1 cash to buy your minipets etc for your HoM - because they've already said you can keep filling the HoM after the game has come out, I think many new GW2 players that want a HoM filled will attempt to trade GW2 cash for GW1 items.

I don't really mean you as in you personally. I meant people who have not completed their HoM and are still working towards 30/50. I believe if they really intend to migrate to GW2, they would just use all their GW1 gold to buy the best experience in GW2 from the gecko rather than switching back and forth waiting for the best deals in GW1. This is why those prices would rise close to GW2 release because everything in GW1 (including GW1 gold/ectos) would have lost value to these people who want the best GW2 stuff that they can get now, rather than later.

Minipets are actually pretty cheap now. The most expensive hurdle, in terms of gold, is the obby armor, the rest are quite affordable comparatively.

fireflyry · Jan 26, 2012, 09:40 PM // 21:40

Quote:

Originally Posted by Essence Snow

Further down the road they will....think of the 1st year hats and such. They have no value other than cosmetic....everyone back then had them now tons want them

Yeah that's a fair call I guess.

The only aesthetic I ever really enjoyed was my dervish disco ball but that was old hat after a few weeks and my Derv now gathers dust.In saying that involved no game time to get.

Personally if the rewards are a hat, emote or title I'll probably never fill my HoM.It will be interesting to see if any of the rewards are surpassed by merely buying a Collectors Edition.

If it's a cool piece of gear my thoughts may change.

Martin Alvito · Jan 26, 2012, 09:54 PM // 21:54

Quote:

Originally Posted by Daesu

I believe if they really intend to migrate to GW2, they would just use all their GW1 gold to buy the best experience in GW2 from the gecko rather than switching back and forth waiting for the best deals in GW1. This is why those prices would rise close to GW2 release because everything in GW1 (including GW1 gold/ectos) would have lost value to these people who want the best GW2 stuff that they can get now, rather than later.

You're ignoring quite a few things here.

- As others have pointed out, most serious players that wanted 50/50 have it by now.
- Current prices reflect players' existing beliefs about the speculative component of the item's price. If enough players believe that an item will continue to increase in price, they will themselves drive the price up.
- Lots of time has passed since the HoM announcement, so the speculative effects have had time to sort themselves out.
- GW1 will still have players that want to collect things after GW2's release, and the prices of those things will continue to be denominated in the existing currency.

It's just as likely that there will be a reverse panic right before GW2 comes out where there are, say, many sellers of minis hoping to cash in and not enough buyers. Think about the number of dead/inactive accounts that other players have access to, and the sheer number of white, purple, gold and green minis that could come out of the woodwork if the price were right.

Gabs88 · Jan 26, 2012, 09:59 PM // 21:59

Quote:

Originally Posted by Martin Alvito

First of all, rubies and sapphires are a very poor way to keep currency. They suffer from the same problem as black dye: they are very difficult to resell in quantity.

They do not, selling sets of 16+16 is usually very quick and easy. And the volume needed by each individual customer is usually much higher then Black Dye. So this is in no way a good comparison.

Quote:

Second, their value is as susceptible to supply side shocks as any other item, but there isn't the demand side present to insulate you from those shocks. If either becomes easier to acquire through gameplay, more of them will get tradered and the price will go down. You won't be able to exit the position quickly due to the difficulty in reselling them, and you will get burned badly. This does offer the potential to make significant sums of money if updates make them become harder to acquire through gameplay, although as noted it's hard to realize those changes quickly due to the lack of a market.

Feel free to check what happens when Canthan new year comes. What drops the fastest and hardest.

Quote:

By contrast, ectos tend to remain fairly constant in price due to the sheer number of players trading in them. Price fluctuations can and do happen, but they tend to be more gentle due to the difficulty in moving such a large market. If there is a strong supply side shock (eg: Shadow Form changes), then the resulting panic will get very ugly. But at least you know in advance that's the devil you're dealing with, and can react accordingly.

Fair point, but we're talking about a quite significant event here. And seeing what happens around the special weekends I can only imagine what will happen when multiple players decide to dump out their stocks of ectos in favor of other things they need or want. Im sitting on close to two stacks ATM myself, and easily sellable items worth more then that. I may also decide to salvage my armorsets to give items away to friends.

So if anything, you should diversify you're investments. If you're current monetary value is 500 ecto, you should keep maybe 175 of them, buy 100 consets, 200 BU's and, 150 shards, some diamonds, 32 sapphires and rubies. That way you're a lot better prepared. Because unlike ectos all of these things are more likely to remain the same or spike then drop drastically.

Martin Alvito · Jan 26, 2012, 11:23 PM // 23:23

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gabs88

They do not, selling sets of 16+16 is usually very quick and easy. And the volume needed by each individual customer is usually much higher then Black Dye. So this is in no way a good comparison.

Which becomes a problem when you have literally thousands of ecto in value that you need to move. Rubies and sapphires may be more liquid than black dye, but they're also not suitable for storing the kind of wealth that you need to have before market fluctuations become something to worry about.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gabs88

So if anything, you should diversify you're investments.

Fortunately, we have two perfectly good options that are readily accepted as payment by players: ectos and armbraces. I would agree that you should diversify across those as a hedge against the risk of developer updates. Anything more than that is overkill, at least as long as we're talking about currency risk.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gabs88

If you're current monetary value is 500 ecto, you should keep maybe 175 of them, buy 100 consets, 200 BU's and, 150 shards, some diamonds, 32 sapphires and rubies. That way you're a lot better prepared. Because unlike ectos all of these things are more likely to remain the same or spike then drop drastically.

No, this is stupid because you will miss trading opportunities that you could have taken advantage of, had you kept your wealth in items that are actually negotiable. The cost of the foregone opportunities will badly outweigh any risk you take on by not diversifying.

Gabs88 · Jan 26, 2012, 11:42 PM // 23:42

Quote:

Which becomes a problem when you have literally thousands of ecto in value that you need to move. Rubies and sapphires may be more liquid than black dye, but they're also not suitable for storing the kind of wealth that you need to have before market fluctuations become something to worry about.

If you got thousands of ectos you couldnt turn them in to cash even if you wanted to because of the credit cap. If you got 250 this week, you could turn them in to cash for 12e\100k now. Wait a couple of weeks for the Canthan new year, and rebuy at 16\100k. Given that you have two accounts to store money, you would make around 70-90e doing that.

So now that we've established that you need two accounts for market fluctuations to be relevant for a single stack of ectos you're saying I need how many for it to be relevant with thousands of them?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Martin Alvito

Fortunately, we have two perfectly good options that are readily accepted as payment by players: ectos and armbraces. I would agree that you should diversify across those as a hedge against the risk of developer updates. Anything more than that is overkill, at least as long as we're talking about currency risk.

Paper value, there is no way to move large amounts of armbraces in a short amount of time other then selling to other people using it as a currency or dumping prices.

Quote:

No, this is stupid because you will miss trading opportunities that you could have taken advantage of, had you kept your wealth in items that are actually negotiable. The cost of the foregone opportunities will badly outweigh any risk you take on by not diversifying.

I've never had any problems in negotiating using any of the alternative currencies listed or quickly converting them to credits or ecto.

superraptors · Jan 26, 2012, 11:54 PM // 23:54

things required for hom will stay the same or INCREASE in price

things not required for hom will stay the same or DECREASE in price(exceptions for one of a kind items)

Martin Alvito · Jan 27, 2012, 12:08 AM // 00:08

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gabs88

If you got thousands of ectos you couldnt turn them in to cash even if you wanted to because of the credit cap. If you got 250 this week, you could turn them in to cash for 12e\100k now. Wait a couple of weeks for the Canthan new year, and rebuy at 16\100k.

First of all, you're dreaming if you think ecto is going to crash that hard. It hasn't had that kind of proportional shift in a very, very long time even for Nine Rings. So what makes you think it's going to happen this time?

Second, people use plat? Substitute currencies evolved because plat is unworkable for anything except pocket change transactions at this point.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gabs88

Paper value, there is no way to move large amounts of armbraces in a short amount of time other then selling to other people using it as a currency or dumping prices.

Dumping is what you're going to have to do if something happens that seriously disrupts currency markets and you're holding the wrong thing. And it's been the case for years that you can move large volumes of wealth into or out of armbraces very quickly, if you take about a 15-20% hit to do it. But if something goes seriously haywire, you're better off doing that than riding the wave all the way to the bottom.

Also, it's all paper value unless you're engaging in RMT. Doesn't matter whether we denominate it in ecto, armbraces or plat. It's still wampum that is convertible to other wampum through barter, with no ability to "realize" the profit.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gabs88

I've never had any problems in negotiating using any of the alternative currencies listed or quickly converting them to credits or ecto.

Differing definitions of the word "quickly" is the problem here. When someone posts an item for sale for 500 ecto that you know you can easily turn for 550e in a matter of minutes, you have literally seconds to snap up that transaction before someone else does. Spreading your wealth out will cause someone with 500e to get that deal instead of you, every single time.

Daesu · Jan 27, 2012, 12:17 AM // 00:17

Quote:

Originally Posted by Martin Alvito

You're ignoring quite a few things here.

- As others have pointed out, most serious players that wanted 50/50 have it by now.

Like I have said, I don't think most players that wanted 50/50 have it by now. I personally don't have 50/50 yet and I know quite a few players who are still working on their HoM towards 50/50. Furthermore, from my random sampling of players in gtob, people are still working on their HoM with many who don't even have an obby armor yet.

I admit this point is still debatable, but I hold the view that the players here are more hardcore than the typical players in the game.

Quote:

- Current prices reflect players' existing beliefs about the speculative component of the item's price. If enough players believe that an item will continue to increase in price, they will themselves drive the price up.
- Lots of time has passed since the HoM announcement, so the speculative effects have had time to sort themselves out.

Precisely after the HoM announcement, prices of HoM related items spiked then they stablized because nobody really knows when GW2 is going to come out. If GW2 is going to come out in the mid of this year (speculating based on open beta in April), then things are going to move faster than they have been.

Quote:

- GW1 will still have players that want to collect things after GW2's release, and the prices of those things will continue to be denominated in the existing currency.

I am staying out of predicting the economy in GW1 AFTER GW2 is released. But my guess would be that MOST GW1 players would have been tired of this 7 year old game and moved on to GW2 or alternatives by then.

Quote:

It's just as likely that there will be a reverse panic right before GW2 comes out where there are, say, many sellers of minis hoping to cash in and not enough buyers. Think about the number of dead/inactive accounts that other players have access to, and the sheer number of white, purple, gold and green minis that could come out of the woodwork if the price were right.

Maybe, but I don't think people are going to care about bargaining prices all that much as long as they can afford it since GW1 gold would be almost useless for those migrating to GW2 for good. Some may even give away gold for free once they have reached 50/50.

Gabs88 · Jan 27, 2012, 12:26 AM // 00:26

Quote:

Originally Posted by Martin Alvito

First of all, you're dreaming if you think ecto is going to crash that hard. It hasn't had that kind of proportional shift in a very, very long time even for Nine Rings. So what makes you think it's going to happen this time?

It happens several times a year.

Martin Alvito · Jan 27, 2012, 12:34 AM // 00:34

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gabs88

It happens several times a year.

To the tune of a 25% decline in the value of the ecto? No, it does not do so with such speed these days.

Borrowed from this thead:
http://www.guildwarsguru.com/forum/e...t10493481.html

http://img225.imageshack.us/img225/3917/ectoprice.jpg

It hasn't had that kind of volatility in some time. Granted, the most recent data in that graph is pretty poor (not enough data points), but the graph is representative of what was happening. There haven't been huge swings since the summer of '09, just slow incremental movements.

Gabs88 · Jan 27, 2012, 12:51 AM // 00:51

Thar chart shows trader values. If trader sells for 7,5k it buys for 5,5 (or 6, cant recall atm). Which means you can get them on the P2P market for 6,25 aka 16:100k. Even seen people fill orders at 17:100k in the last year.

Martin Alvito · Jan 27, 2012, 01:15 AM // 01:15

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gabs88

Thar chart shows trader values. If trader sells for 7,5k it buys for 5,5 (or 6, cant recall atm). Which means you can get them on the P2P market for 6,25 aka 16:100k. Even seen people fill orders at 17:100k in the last year.

Did the price go from 16:100 to 12:100 in the span of a week? No, it did not. So my question still stands: why do you think it's going to crash that hard when it didn't during the last CNY?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Daesu

Like I have said, I don't think most players that wanted 50/50 have it by now.

I said "most serious players", not "most players".

Sure, Joe Average with 20k in his storage box may want to buy things for HoM, but will he have the capacity to pay? Moving the demand side requires both ability and willingness, and there will be lots of prospective items conferring HoM points on the supply side competing for Joe Average's money.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Daesu

Precisely after the HoM announcement, prices of HoM related items spiked then they stablized because nobody really knows when GW2 is going to come out.

You're making a dangerously unwarranted assumption about why prices stabilized here. What are you basing this conclusion on?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Daesu

I am staying out of predicting the economy in GW1 AFTER GW2 is released. But my guess would be that MOST GW1 players would have been tired of this 7 year old game and moved on to GW2 or alternatives by then.

Their actions matter to prices in GW1 before GW2 releases, so you can't just write those players off. If you do, you will come to incorrect conclusions.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Daesu

Maybe, but I don't think people are going to care about bargaining prices all that much as long as they can afford it since GW1 gold would be almost useless for those migrating to GW2 for good. Some may even give away gold for free once they have reached 50/50.

See above. Joe Average will want to get as many points for his money as he can, and the people that stay behind will all be competing for his business.

coil · Jan 27, 2012, 01:25 AM // 01:25

cool discussion

has anet said anything about banning for trading currency across games?