Anet recently stated that their goal is 0.0045 Mb/s per user, or 4.5 kBytes/second.
Given the rather large number, I'd assume this calculates the patches as well. You can also assume that this is the maximum you'll ever reach. The rest depends on the area you're in, and the activity.
The in-game meter gives you a display of current transfer rate, which fluctuates and doesn't represent average long-term rate.
As a reference - if you download entire game, it's around 3.5 gigabytes. Incremental patches are smaller than that.
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