Curse

romO · Oct 19, 2006, 02:24 AM // 02:24

First round brackets announced.

http://www.guildwars.com/competitive...mnschedule.php

What do you guys think of the system? Predictions? Surprises? Upsets?

Discuss.

P.s. Since it was largely unclear on gw.com, here is a little bit of clarification about the scoring system:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike Gills

Swiss Scoring System

Each team will earn 3 match points for each match that they win, 1 point for any draws, and 0 points for any matches lost.

If a battle has not been completed after 45 minutes has passed on the match clock, then the battle will be called a draw with each guild receiving 1 match point.

Tie Breakers Used

At the end of the 4 rounds of swiss play, the top 4 guilds will be invited to participate in the semi-finals being held on Sunday at 16:00 GMT.

After 4 rounds of swiss play (assuming no guilds drop out) there will be one guild at 4 – 0 (four wins and no losses) and four guilds at 3-1 (three wins and one loss). In order to determine which 3 out of these 4 guilds advance, we will be using each guild’s Opponents’ match-win percentage as the tie-breaker.

Each guild’s match win percentage is that guild’s accumulated match points divided by 3 times the number of rounds in which they competed, or 0.33, whichever is greater. (Establishing a minimum match-win percentage of 0.33 limits the effect low performances have when calculating and comparing opponent’s match-win percentages).

For example, a guild’s record is 2-1-1 (2 wins, 1 loss, and 1 draw) after 4 rounds of swiss play. It is has earned 7 match points and its match win percentage is 7/(4*3) = .583

A guild’s opponent’s match-win percentage is the average match-win percentage of each opponent that guild faced (ignoring any rounds for which the guild received a bye).

For example, using the above example, a guild finished 2-1-1 and its opponents match records were 2-2-0, 1-2-1, 3-1-0, and 0-4-0 so the guild’s opponent’s match-win percentage is

(6/12 + 4/12 + 9/12 + 0/12)

----------------------------

4 opponents

Replacing the 0/12 with 0.33 (see above minimum) and translating to the decimal system we get:

(0.50 + 0.33 + 0.67 + 0.33)

---------------------------------

4

1.83

This equation becomes ------ or 0.46.

4

While this may seem a bit complicated it basically comes down to using the strength of your schedule as the tie-breaker. The guild that defeats guilds with better records is rated higher in the tie-breakers than a guild defeated weaker opponents.

Byron · Oct 19, 2006, 02:50 AM // 02:50

I think it's an interesting and perhaps a prototype way to make guilds play on specific maps. The big bummer in the past few tournaments was map "gimmicks." I recall the final EW vs, iB matchup two tournaments ago, for example.

It should be a good way to evaluate how teams prepare for pre-ordained maps, rather than teams having "homefield advantage," and what-not.

Though, what is even worse about this system, is that the "tie breaker" is too important. It should not matter how mathematically good an enemy is, because the end-result should be the win. If a very good team, who deserves to be in the semi-finals, loses their chance because a mediocre team steamrolled a disorganized guild and thus won a lot of points, that is unfair. The whole "pairing" method doesn't settle well with me.

Predictions:

4 semi-final teams = QQ, iQ, EW, Te

I have an inkling that DeeR could make a surprize appearance by running some of their ingenuitive builds, or just with leet r-spike. American dominance this time around, IMO.

So, my pairings should go:
QQ vs iQ
EW vs Te

Finals prediciton:
QQ vs Te

[Te] Winna! I think Te is at the peak of their game, tbh.

tomcruisejr · Oct 19, 2006, 03:34 AM // 03:34

the japs, maybe they'll rock the bracket, who knows.

the spike teams, i predict one will go on the final four.

QQ, cow, Teare near or on the top of their game obviously. iQ, i never had the chance to watch one of their games.

the euros, ill predict using same old trick (foc or whatever).

my final four

cow, QQ, Te, iQ

go american server!

the system sucks to be honest. the old system was better. a win is a win and losers should be eliminated fast.

Thom Bangalter · Oct 19, 2006, 05:05 AM // 05:05

I'm rooting for QQ and iQ because I'm a fanboy of both tommy and ensign. Additionally, QQ is really nice guesting for us, and I'll always have a soft spot for iQ after they won based off their great use of meteor shower.

Lews · Oct 19, 2006, 06:32 AM // 06:32

Thanks for the support guys, we appreciate it.

iQ, Te, QQ, the other is a draw. Probably EW, but who knows.

Blame the Monks · Oct 19, 2006, 01:14 PM // 13:14

I can see SpNV upsetting some people. Other than that I hesitate to call any upsets. The american teams have all gone head to head enough to get a pretty good idea of the pecking order, but to me at least the euros and JA teams are relative unknowns.

fatboyslimerr · Oct 20, 2006, 05:50 PM // 17:50

go ICE ?

iQ will beat them, but who knows, maybe iQ's monks will be drunk

Thom Bangalter · Oct 20, 2006, 06:30 PM // 18:30

Cow, in my opinion, is not a playoff team. They are a ladder team. They have a couple heavy pressure builds they run phenomenally well, but I'm not so sure they'll be able to handle people building against them.

Khift · Oct 20, 2006, 10:53 PM // 22:53

I expect Forlorn Savior to go 0-4 and take 16th and Slash Rank to go 1-3 or 2-2 -- at least they have some build diversity to pick from.

Other than that I too expect some American dominance out of here with top 4's of QQ, Te, iQ, EW and maybe PnH.

Blame the Monks · Oct 21, 2006, 10:09 PM // 22:09

Finish Name Points Opp Match-win %

1 Team Quitter, Am 12 58.3333

2 Idiot Savants, Am 9 75.0000

3 Peace and Harmony, Eu 9 58.3333

4 There is a Cow Level, Am 9 56.2500

5 Frozen Flame, Eu 9 47.9167

6 Esoteric Warriors, Eu 6 64.5833

7 Slash Rank, Am 6 58.3333

7 Legion of Losers, Am 6 58.3333

9 Time is Running, Am 6 47.9167

9 Storm Bearers, Eu 6 47.9167

11 Supernova Jpn, Ja 6 45.8333

12 Chaossanctuary, Ja 3 58.3333

13 Fame Factory, Eu 3 52.0833

13 Free Will, Ja 3 52.0833

15 Treacherous Empire, Am 3 47.9167

16 Forlorn Savior, Am 0 37.5000

Single Elimination Semi-Finals Sunday October 22 16:00 GMT

As you can see, due to the strength of opponent match-win percentage tie-breaker the following 4 guilds will be playing in tomorrow’s semi-finals.

Team Quitter (#1 seed) vs There is a Cow Level (#4 seed)

Idiot Savants (#2 seed) vs Peace and Harmony (#3 seed)

wassup1444465 · Oct 21, 2006, 10:53 PM // 22:53

Helpful hint:

Never run a spike if you are a spike guild. We ran into guilds with migranes AND dual shields up in order to counter both our rspike and obs spike and so we just got rolled.

Btw, good job today Tommy. You guys owned.

~Kontra [DeeR]

Lews · Oct 21, 2006, 11:11 PM // 23:11

I TOLD you we should have gone touchway.

Xasew · Oct 21, 2006, 11:17 PM // 23:17

Finishing 5th is kinda like finishing 4th in the Olympics... Bleh.

Blame the Monks · Oct 21, 2006, 11:32 PM // 23:32

Quote:

Originally Posted by Khift

I expect Forlorn Savior to go 0-4 and take 16th and Slash Rank to go 1-3 or 2-2 -- at least they have some build diversity to pick from.

Other than that I too expect some American dominance out of here with top 4's of QQ, Te, iQ, EW and maybe PnH.

Not a bad prediction at all. Drop out te for cow and you were dead on. o_o

DieInBasra · Oct 22, 2006, 12:32 AM // 00:32

Why did Te lose so much?

I'm kinda surprised DeeR got as many wins as they did, no slight to them, but it is a tournement setting. People knew they'd run spike but didn't spec properly, it seemed. DeeR really knows how to run around the map

Question to iQ-Why did you run mo/a vs QQ when you know you'd be up against surgers or hexes? I thought they were really only good vs war heavy or in ganks where you want your monk to be mobile. Maybe that's a misconception on my part. Were you expecting smite or a sudden change in builds? Just wondering because I was looking forward to that match because QQ has such powerbuilds, and I thought you'd come up with a odd metabuild. I was rooting for you guys the whole way, though.

Phelann · Oct 22, 2006, 01:14 AM // 01:14

Quote:

Originally Posted by wassup1444465

Helpful hint:

Never run a spike if you are a spike guild. We ran into guilds with migranes AND dual shields up in order to counter both our rspike and obs spike and so we just got rolled.

I really hope you didnt find this result shocking. People had been saying this would happen forever.

Red Locust · Oct 22, 2006, 01:26 AM // 01:26

I'm still surprised guilds lost to obsidian flame or ranger spike even though they knew it was coming. Or maybe those asian guilds haven't been observing NA games that much?

By the way, anybody have an explanation for all the henchway that was running around? (Te and FS mainly).

wassup1444465 · Oct 22, 2006, 01:32 AM // 01:32

FS couldn't field all 8. Te had already been knocked out of contention, but it was required that a guild participate in all four rounds in order to be eligable for prizes (silver capes and a skill unlock.)

Xasew · Oct 22, 2006, 01:46 AM // 01:46

Te's failed gank team in the previous game RQed so they had to get henchies. At least that's the rumor...

unknown entity · Oct 22, 2006, 03:00 AM // 03:00

Quote:

Originally Posted by Red Locust

I'm still surprised guilds lost to obsidian flame or ranger spike even though they knew it was coming. Or maybe those asian guilds haven't been observing NA games that much?

Honestly, do you think people live in about half-day diffrence time zone have much opportunily to observe NA games? (unless they have nothing but GW to do in RL)