Curse

Mash Legend · May 22, 2007, 05:43 PM // 17:43

there are no restrictions on loot, if u get loot or not its just luck. i bet its totaly random.

deluxe · May 22, 2007, 06:04 PM // 18:04

Quote:

Originally Posted by manitoba1073

apprently you havent farmed enough then. its all random

Whatever buddy, i'm done trying to convince these ignorant people. They will find out for themselves.

KIDGOOCH · May 22, 2007, 06:12 PM // 18:12

Here is my experience in Urgoz. I run the R/A HM solo build farming the Thought Stealers and Hopping Vampire pop-ups. For the last 15 hours (broken up over several days) doing nothing else but zoning, killing, and collecting, I get 3 - 5 gold drops per hour (each run take 90 seconds) so 1 gold drop per 20 trips or so. The golds seem to come in groups, 3 -5 gold within 10 runs, then about a 40 min or so period with one or two purps, may blues, lots of whites 100 gold per run and a vamp fang. Not sure if everyone is having the same luck, but seems pretty good so far.

Koning · May 22, 2007, 07:13 PM // 19:13

Ye, i've also done enough runs (probably more than the ones who dont think aoe has something to do with it) to safely say than AoE mass killing DOES make a difference, if you're solo or dual. It's not bad luck, its a FACT.

WildmouseX · May 22, 2007, 07:29 PM // 19:29

Quote:

Originally Posted by deluxe

@anyone denying that mass killing results in lesser drops:

It's proven, if you dont believe it, go ahead and dont believe it. I'm not gonna post huge statistics about my drops just to prove to some people who just wont believe it. I farm a lot (around 2mil since hm), and i'm 100% sure of it.

people delude themselves into thinking the radom positioning of stars in the sky look like dippers, and orion with his sword... people delude themselves into thinking that radom collections of vaporised water droplets makes clouds that look like bunnies, or tree's, or whatever.

just because you think you see a pattern by looking at a small sample of randomly occureing events, you don't have proof. i don't need you to dig up any data, i just farmed up some of my own.

rhilon refuge spider farm (note scrolls were counted to their color)

1 hour useing SS - group kill
# of runs : 18
$: 17 drops totaling 1,718 gold
W: 13
B: 4
P: 3
G: 3
Gr: 1
T: 0
D: 5
M: 5
total recived in merch gold : 5,280

1 hr useing SV one at a time kills
# of runs: 6
$: 10 drops totaling 1,128
W:13
B: 9
P: 0
G: 2
Gr: 1
M: 11
T: 0
D: 2
Lp: 1
total recived in merch gold - 3,657

when you compare your drops per run, you have a screwed up perspective.. a SS run takes 2-3 minutes, a SV run takes 11 - so there is no equeal comparison between the two..... by baseing the data by the hour, we have a common element that will actually make comparisons valid.

so now that we have some responsibly collected, viable data what can we conclude? well i was told that it's only scaleible loots that is different so that's money, white and blue drops...

SS was 17 drops of money, SV was 10 - so SS wins by 7
SS and SV was 13 white drops, so their even here
Sv was 9 drops of blue, and SS was 4 - so SV wins by 5

considering that the law of averages is going to fluxuate all of these varibles up and down the longer the comparison is dragged out, the only conclusion we can make from all of this, is that over the course of an hour both systems are relitively equeal.

while it does seem that you get loot rewarded to you based on how much time you are spending on killing, instead of how many you kill - two guys doing the same run, each useing one or the other of the systems, for the same peroid of time are going to come out equeal.

and to think otherwise is a delusion.

Quote:

Originally Posted by KIDGOOCH

Here is my experience in Urgoz. I run the R/A HM solo build farming the Thought Stealers and Hopping Vampire pop-ups. For the last 15 hours (broken up over several days) doing nothing else but zoning, killing, and collecting, I get 3 - 5 gold drops per hour (each run take 90 seconds) so 1 gold drop per 20 trips or so. The golds seem to come in groups, 3 -5 gold within 10 runs, then about a 40 min or so period with one or two purps, may blues, lots of whites 100 gold per run and a vamp fang. Not sure if everyone is having the same luck, but seems pretty good so far.

that's the exact same experince i outlined in my 10 hours of farming that spot the page before this one.

deluxe · May 22, 2007, 07:46 PM // 19:46

I have no clue how the SS farm of them spiders works, it seems that people only farm those spiders. Anyway, give kappa's or any huge mob that dies instantly a try. And you will see that i (and many more here) am right.

PS. i also farm huge mobs with SS, like the minotaurs at ice tooth cave. When I go with SV my storage is always full after a run, with SS its not even 1/4 full. And it's not like i farm that 2 times.

Bastian · May 22, 2007, 07:50 PM // 19:50

Quote:

Originally Posted by SotiCoto

I see your counter-theory... but what is it based on?
You see... there is this nasty little problem with the human mind known as the cluster illusion. It is a side-effect of a mind designed to identify patterns.... because sometimes a seqence of events can occur randomly in such a way as appears like a pattern. We therefore can only work in terms of relative probabilities... Randomness is in fact capable of replicating patterns by accident.
Furthermore... the human mind is more attuned to finding things wrong or undesirable than the other way around. You may register good findings as "normal" or "default"... but when things start going a bit wonky, the average person will assume something is wrong somewhere... that there is some sort of deliberate interference.

Do you have supporting evidence for this? I majored in Cognitive Science, and I don't recall ever having heard of this "cluster illusion". Also, a google search provided no reference to this "problem". Please, if you want to talk about cognitice psychology - don't make things up.

Additionally, I do have supporting evidence (use of inductive reasoning) in order to support the theory that, yes, the more farming in one area means less good "drops" in that area.

Pre aggro farming nerf, my favorite place to solo farm was outside of Vasburg Armory in the Eternal Grove. I would go with my Ritualist and my run cleared everything up until Jayne Forestlight. I then soloed her with my Ritualist. Once I was fininshed I soloed as much as I could until I died.

I did this constantly.

However, the only times I ever got Vera to drop was when I was on very early in the morning, before most Americans were on the American servers. I farmed her at all times of the day. She only dropped her Vera for me when there was hardly anybody else in that area. This probably consists of well over 500 runs.

That is odd I thought.

Furthermore, my best chest drops have been during these early hours. Perfect crenellated swords dropped from solo Nahpui Quarter chest runs (when they were worth soemthing). I got a near perfect Dual Gothic Axe on one of my Eternal Grove runs.

Yes, we can all believe the information (or disinformation) Gaile gives us. But, she is only relying on what is being reported to her. There is no deductive way for us to determine the answer to this question, because none of us are familiar with the code for this game.

However, from an inductive perspective, there are many views to support the idea that areas can be "over-farmed" by multiple players.

Inductive reasoning also continues to be a driving force behind most Scientific Theories and Laws we hold to be True.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mash Legend

i bet its totaly random

If you knew anything about anything, you would no that nothing is totally random. Something as complex as a computer game may have "behaviors" that are not intended. And, indeed, if you have ever programmed even a simple program - you would know that this happens all the time. There is nothing, without being able to have a deep knowledge of the GW code, that would premit anyone to say that the complexity of that program might have side effects that cause "loot" to be scaled based on the number of players in a particular area (or a particular number of instances for an area). Just because all these places are "instances" does not mean they are unaffected by the Populace as a Whole.

boarderx · May 22, 2007, 07:54 PM // 19:54

anet is probably laughing at the amount of time some ppl put into trying to figure this out, lol.

It seems most logical that in a party of 8 you have a 12.5% to get a drop from a single foe. That foe has X% chance to drop anything at all. Say a foe drops something everytime that means you will get 12.5% of all the drops and on a lucky set of foes you will get more then that. Now with loot scaling anet just made it seem that there is still a group of 8 (or 6 or whatever) even when you are solo. I dont think there is any crazy timer for who gets what its probably percentages. If you get low number of drops you are just unlucky. Its prbably not as complicated as you make it seem.

But i have no real proof of this except ive been around the block and that is just how it seems to be. So, this is my opinion but it seems to be the most logical, imo.

My suggestion: if you wanna farm, do it solo or duo (or whatever your preference is) but dont worry about how many ppl are in that area farming or how you kill them. If you kill them, then mission accomplished. If they dropped something you want then hats off to you

clawofcrimson · May 22, 2007, 10:13 PM // 22:13

here is some more data concerning the anti farm codes..

http://www.guildwarsguru.com/forum/s...php?t=10159729

WildmouseX · May 23, 2007, 12:06 AM // 00:06

Quote:

Originally Posted by deluxe

I have no clue how the SS farm of them spiders works, it seems that people only farm those spiders. Anyway, give kappa's or any huge mob that dies instantly a try. And you will see that i (and many more here) am right.

PS. i also farm huge mobs with SS, like the minotaurs at ice tooth cave. When I go with SV my storage is always full after a run, with SS its not even 1/4 full. And it's not like i farm that 2 times.

if you get 3 times as many drops per run, killing 1 at a time slowly useing SV - but can do three times as many runs useing SS (which is what the data from my 2 hours of testing the spider farm shows) - then the two systems are equeal. that is not a hard logic to follow.

here is the SS spider farm
http://video.google.com/videoplay?do...00013913789665

SotiCoto · May 23, 2007, 12:14 AM // 00:14

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bastian

Do you have supporting evidence for this? I majored in Cognitive Science, and I don't recall ever having heard of this "cluster illusion". Also, a google search provided no reference to this "problem". Please, if you want to talk about cognitice psychology - don't make things up.

The name... I don't remember where I got that from... Perhaps it was Wikipedia... no clue there.
But the actual process.... that is something I have both observed endlessly throughout my life, read about in books... and to a lesser extent been taught about. Heck... how do you think those stupid ink-blot tests work?
Psychology? Puh-lease... ¬_¬ ... Behavioural Biology teaches far more than you could imagine about the workings of primitive minds... and yes, I'm talking about humans. I know well enough what got humanity's ancestors out of the trees... what got them using flint tools... making fire... wearing clothing... the works. It isn't a matter of when they did it so much as what triggered it and "why"... All that modern psychology stuff is just child's play by comparison.

Quote:

Additionally, I do have supporting evidence (use of inductive reasoning) in order to support the theory that, yes, the more farming in one area means less good "drops" in that area.

Pre aggro farming nerf, my favorite place to solo farm was outside of Vasburg Armory in the Eternal Grove. I would go with my Ritualist and my run cleared everything up until Jayne Forestlight. I then soloed her with my Ritualist. Once I was fininshed I soloed as much as I could until I died.

I did this constantly.

However, the only times I ever got Vera to drop was when I was on very early in the morning, before most Americans were on the American servers. I farmed her at all times of the day. She only dropped her Vera for me when there was hardly anybody else in that area. This probably consists of well over 500 runs.

That is odd I thought.

Furthermore, my best chest drops have been during these early hours. Perfect crenellated swords dropped from solo Nahpui Quarter chest runs (when they were worth soemthing). I got a near perfect Dual Gothic Axe on one of my Eternal Grove runs.

Nice.... but I have not observed this at all. In fact, playing Guild Wars early every morning AND in the popular hours of the evening, I have experienced on average the same number and quality of drops during both time-periods. They only changed in accordance with events on particular special farming weekends too, and despite the huge influx of people... sure enough... it was only as to be expected from randomness.

Quote:

Yes, we can all believe the information (or disinformation) Gaile gives us. But, she is only relying on what is being reported to her. There is no deductive way for us to determine the answer to this question, because none of us are familiar with the code for this game.

However, from an inductive perspective, there are many views to support the idea that areas can be "over-farmed" by multiple players.

Inductive reasoning also continues to be a driving force behind most Scientific Theories and Laws we hold to be True.

There are also plenty of views to support the null hypothesis... that there is no overfarming.... and if you've ever done a statistical test in your life, you know it takes some HEAVY counter-evidence to break the null hypothesis.

Quote:

If you knew anything about anything, you would no that nothing is totally random. Something as complex as a computer game may have "behaviors" that are not intended. And, indeed, if you have ever programmed even a simple program - you would know that this happens all the time. There is nothing, without being able to have a deep knowledge of the GW code, that would premit anyone to say that the complexity of that program might have side effects that cause "loot" to be scaled based on the number of players in a particular area (or a particular number of instances for an area). Just because all these places are "instances" does not mean they are unaffected by the Populace as a Whole.

Perhaps nothing is random.... but that is only true if you are calculating things at a subatomic level... whereby the laws of physics come into effect en masse...
On a higher scale, the complexity of these interactions is many orders of magnitude beyond anything any human could hope to comprehend.... and thus for all intents and purposes it can be perceived as random.

But irrespective of what you're saying here... to defeat the theory that in fact there is no overfarming.... you would have to demonstrate with 95% or higher degree of success that there was.... because, statistically speaking... that is the typical minimum cut-off mark for accepting the presence of a connection between the effects.
That is to say.... whatever pattern you may THINK is there... you're almost certainly misreading it, as the complexity of the inner processes is beyond most precise guessing... For there not to be any significant pattern at all though is far easier.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Quote:

Originally Posted by WildmouseX

if you get 3 times as many drops per run, killing 1 at a time slowly useing SV - but can do three times as many runs useing SS (which is what the data from my 2 hours of testing the spider farm shows) - then the two systems are equeal. that is not a hard logic to follow.

While loot per unit time may well be what is actually of concern to the average person... what folks have been trying to get across regarding AoE killing versus individual killing is more measured "per mob" or "per run". The mobs will take longer to kill, thus the run will take longer..... but thus far the various members of the community as a fair majority have independantly concluded that more scaled loot will drop from any given mob when the killing is staggered out.

In case I haven't already mentioned it though... I don't advise people to stagger out their kills if they're hunting for golds... or if they're trying to get things over and done with faster.... Whatever the case, nuking the whole group faster will quicken the process of gaining loot irrespective of how you look at it..... BUT.... at least with me, there is a certain stress-factor that starts to play in if after a certain number of enemies (not units time) I haven't started getting reasonable amounts of loot... which is why I will tend to SV rather than SS much of the time.... (then some enemies NEED SVing).

WildmouseX · May 23, 2007, 12:49 AM // 00:49

Quote:

Originally Posted by SotiCoto

While loot per unit time may well be what is actually of concern to the average person... what folks have been trying to get across regarding AoE killing versus individual killing is more measured "per mob" or "per run". The mobs will take longer to kill, thus the run will take longer..... but thus far the various members of the community as a fair majority have independantly concluded that more scaled loot will drop from any given mob when the killing is staggered out.

In case I haven't already mentioned it though... I don't advise people to stagger out their kills if they're hunting for golds... or if they're trying to get things over and done with faster.... Whatever the case, nuking the whole group faster will quicken the process of gaining loot irrespective of how you look at it..... BUT.... at least with me, there is a certain stress-factor that starts to play in if after a certain number of enemies (not units time) I haven't started getting reasonable amounts of loot... which is why I will tend to SV rather than SS much of the time.... (then some enemies NEED SVing).

look up at my data again, the scaleible loot drops were indenticle over the same peroid of time. if you prefer SV because you get a warm and fuzzy fealing seeing one large pile of loot after a long and tedious trip - then say so - don't try to go around makeing up BS that one way gives more loot then the other, because the real word data shows that they are, in fact, equeal.

the only difference between the two styles is doing alot of fast runs that nets 3-4 drops a run, or doing few long drawn out runs that net larger piles - both are equeal ammounts of loot, even the scaleible; and any belief you have otherwise is a delusion.

manitoba1073 · May 23, 2007, 04:03 AM // 04:03

Quote:

Originally Posted by deluxe

Whatever buddy, i'm done trying to convince these ignorant people. They will find out for themselves.

You do realize who I am. I'll gaurentee you havent farmed no where near as much as I have. 6000+ hours in 23 months. 19 characters 50 million combined exp. But yea keep on trying to convince yourself its not random.

Nkah Sennyt · May 23, 2007, 04:28 AM // 04:28

Tone it down, kiddies. And watch the ego-tripping, manitoba.

manitoba1073 · May 23, 2007, 05:10 AM // 05:10

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nkah Sennyt

Tone it down, kiddies. And watch the ego-tripping, manitoba.

There was no ego tripping. I was mearly showing that I do know what im talking about. That the drops are all random and why I do know that.

Ludo · May 23, 2007, 05:30 AM // 05:30

Wildmouse, it does make a difference... Cant you see that doing three runs and getting three small piles of loot that are equal to doing one run slowly is not exactly the same thing? It may equal the same amount for your bank account, but it's not the same at all. What it means is that killing slowly gives you more loot per GROUP. Say you could do one run a day, new anet policy, which would you choose, the slow SV way that gave you eight drops, or the fast SS way that gave you three? One gives you more loot per mob, even you admit this. This is at the core of the issue we are discussing.

I know I can do the same run over and over until I get a gold or x amount of cash, but I don't really care to. I suppose I just want to know how the system works, so the time I do spend farming is used productively.

And Manitoba, in case you didnt hear, they changed the way the drop system works last month so most of your 6,000 hours are irrelevant to this dicussion.

manitoba1073 · May 23, 2007, 05:51 AM // 05:51

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ludo

Wildmouse, it does make a difference... Cant you see that doing three runs and getting three small piles of loot that are equal to doing one run slowly is not exactly the same thing? It may equal the same amount for your bank account, but it's not the same at all. What it means is that killing slowly gives you more loot per GROUP. Say you could do one run a day, new anet policy, which would you choose, the slow SV way that gave you eight drops, or the fast SS way that gave you three? One gives you more loot per mob, even you admit this. This is at the core of the issue we are discussing.

I know I can do the same run over and over until I get a gold or x amount of cash, but I don't really care to. I suppose I just want to know how the system works, so the time I do spend farming is used productively.

And Manitoba, in case you didnt hear, they changed the way the drop system works last month so most of your 6,000 hours are irrelevant to this dicussion.

No they didnt change whether it drops from fast killing or slow killing or AoE killing or any type of that way. What they changed was what dropped period, not how it dropped so those 6000 hrs are still very relevent and that is what is the discussion. it doesnt matter if you kill a mob quick or slow its still random on how it drops.

Necron I I · May 23, 2007, 06:12 AM // 06:12

ok i'll put an end on this discussion.I've been doing some calculating and tonight till tommorow night i'll have done all in all around 300 runs on 2-3 different locations using your favorite SS,SV and splinter barrage.I'll record all drops and we'll just see if it's random or not...

EDIT:
and if someone says that isn't enough in order to find out,well i don't know what is

deluxe · May 23, 2007, 06:53 AM // 06:53

Quote:

Originally Posted by manitoba1073

You do realize who I am.

lol, just lol. ur a random noname pve nub, thats who you are.
6000 hours, go outside, get a job.

anyway, back ontopic. i will also make some charts this weekend for the non-believers.

manitoba1073 · May 23, 2007, 07:36 AM // 07:36

Quote:

Originally Posted by deluxe

lol, just lol. ur a random noname pve nub, thats who you are.
6000 hours, go outside, get a job.

anyway, back ontopic. i will also make some charts this weekend for the non-believers.

Glad you think im some random noname PvE nub, and ill let you think just that. by the way yes I do have a job do you? Wait till your done with your tests and you will see im right. Do it like necro is atleast 300 runs each. But I'll clue you in first, Your drops will be random. Wouldnt want someone to half A$$ it. anyways heres a pix about 1.5 months after i came up with a build when i found new skills for it. By the way the date is august 11 2005