Curse

Eli Rela · May 18, 2007, 02:49 PM // 14:49

Quote:

Originally Posted by SotiCoto

Thanks.... but can anyone now test this theory in places other than that spider farm?! =P ...

Ok, here is another test:
Test setup: Bergen Hot Springs HM, 2 groups of undead rangers right outside. One is on the small hill in front, another that was tested is behind the house to the left.
I was 55 SS/SV Necro, standing under the cliff/hiding behind the wall

out of 10 runs:

SV: each(!) ranger dropped something (90% Decayed Orr Emblem, 5% Bones,5% gold coins)
SS: got a 1(one) drop of coins on each group, one Decayed Orr Armor (thats it!)

also got no gold/purple items at all in any test cases.
I think we could stop testing point#3, it has been proven positive.

netniwk · May 18, 2007, 04:00 PM // 16:00

with this info in mind,where would be an effective place to farm? Old farming builds foccused on lots of mobs in one spot,now we can basicly farm anywhere without enchantment removal.

My Green Storage · May 18, 2007, 06:45 PM // 18:45

You know, I think I had dumb luck today.

It's 11:35am, I just did a colossal farm for the hell of it.
Req 11 Colossal drops, first and only run (so far :P)
Earlier, about 6 hours ago I did runs and I had 1 run of 3 golds and I forget, either the run before or the run after, I got 1 gold. Including a Req 11 Tattooed.

I Dead Sword farmed 4 times. I had 2 of em drop for me in those 4 runs .. unfortunately one of them wasn't maxed. That always makes me laugh.

Today was one of my most gold (item) producing days in about a week (In such a few farms). Mind you I only did dead swords 3-5 times. Colossal/Tattooed runs around 8 times and ele sword runs (i.e. Monoliths) 2-3 times and Urgoz about 15 times, so I didn't truly overfarm today.

I did notice when I went back into astralarium after the run when the colossal dropped, I saw no other Mo/D's there .. maybe all will drop for me :P

... Oh yea, over populated/farmed areas don't matter ... :PPP

kumarshah · May 18, 2007, 06:53 PM // 18:53

So, ANet is punishing me for killing more enemies at the same time?

shadows of hob · May 18, 2007, 09:11 PM // 21:11

The drops are still bad/nothing if you kill a group of enemies with a delay of 1 second between each enemie. Tried this with the spiders and the kappa a few times. But if I lower their health to 1 or something and you wait 5-10 seconds, then they seem to drop nearly everytime.

So, this means?

ArKaiN · May 19, 2007, 01:09 AM // 01:09

Quote:

Originally Posted by kumarshah

So, ANet is punishing me for killing more enemies at the same time?

No. Yes. Well, sorta.
Here's the thing: If all areas you farmed dropped golds at the same rate, what would stop people from aggroing in areas where stuff was lvl 2 or 3 and just killing them all for inscriptions/mods/wisdom title? Makes sense that killing mobs wields less golds. I'm really not sure it should apply for lvl20+ stuff, but hey, they hate farming.

manitoba1073 · May 19, 2007, 02:03 AM // 02:03

Ive said it before its only coincidence that your drops are different from mass killing or single killing. And you cant just do 20-100 runs and say thats a good theory. I know some wont believe me, but do the same run for 7 hours straight by fast kills then 7 hours of slow killing, and you will what im talking about.

Now if you want more fun on theories try doing the runs and waiting for 1-2 mins before starting them.

More Outrage · May 19, 2007, 02:17 AM // 02:17

I don`t think they hate farmers. I think the key word is "casual".

Seems to me they they wanted to help the casual famer and slow down the bots. Let`s face it bots don`t play the game they just repeatedly follow the same actions, whereas a player who likes to farm will, when drops get bad, go and do something else untill bored.
So there is the key! When your drops look bad go play the game, help someone out, try that frustrating mission out again, try master a mission or PUG for a laugh then go back and farm till it looks bad again.

Not too sure I agree with the kill slowly and not at the same time thing but I`ll keep watching as I can see where this is coming from.

fog_of_redoubt · May 20, 2007, 04:01 PM // 16:01

Quote:

Originally Posted by KartMan

ok this is how I think about the server part of the game :

as I said, the "instances" are just data, whatever its form, to put it bluntly an array, containing various informations (coded or not, example int value 13 for dead bow). Each array corresponds to an instance, which are unrelated amongst themselves, but the functions that "uses"/"works" those arrays are the same for all those data.
so to speak if you have a function that spawns the monsters on a map, it may call another function that determines (probably using a random number generator) the drop and quality the given monster has.
It is exactly here where I think the skew is.

if you now consider the Guild War server you're as a whole (and not only in your own instance), the server may host 1000, 10000 instances or even more, so possibly hundreds or thousands of call to the same function in a very short time window.
I don't think we will ever see this server part code but that's at least how I guess it could be like.

I am a few days late in this post, but wanted to add my .02

I agree with the OP Populace Overfarming point, that it does not affect drops. However, I think what Kartman is saying here is not that he thinks there is an intentional reduction based on the masses farming, but an unintentional one, based on code not performing as intended. And there well could be some validity to this.

I think another factor that isn't considered is that I think certain areas are in effect impacted by the masses indirectly. I think that ANet DOES nerf certain areas that become popular. I think they do it for a Major and a Minor reason. The Major reason is bots, most popular solo farm spots are also popular bot spots. The Minor reason is the solo farmer. I think they justify nerfing the overall profitability of farming an area based on eliminating profit to bots, then also think... "hmmm we will also kill a popular solo spot therefore improving (NOT) the economy". That is my theory on the drop in quality in certain areas that become very popular to farm.

SotiCoto · May 21, 2007, 01:19 PM // 13:19

Quote:

Originally Posted by My Green Storage

You know, I think I had dumb luck today.

It's 11:35am, I just did a colossal farm for the hell of it.
Req 11 Colossal drops, first and only run (so far :P)
Earlier, about 6 hours ago I did runs and I had 1 run of 3 golds and I forget, either the run before or the run after, I got 1 gold. Including a Req 11 Tattooed.

I Dead Sword farmed 4 times. I had 2 of em drop for me in those 4 runs .. unfortunately one of them wasn't maxed. That always makes me laugh.

Today was one of my most gold (item) producing days in about a week (In such a few farms). Mind you I only did dead swords 3-5 times. Colossal/Tattooed runs around 8 times and ele sword runs (i.e. Monoliths) 2-3 times and Urgoz about 15 times, so I didn't truly overfarm today.

I did notice when I went back into astralarium after the run when the colossal dropped, I saw no other Mo/D's there .. maybe all will drop for me :P

... Oh yea, over populated/farmed areas don't matter ... :PPP

You sound sceptical...

But then if that really did make a difference at the level you're suggesting, then don't you think by some small chance that I would get more gold-drops when I play in the mornings than in the evenings?
In the evenings... the whole of Guild Wars for the most part is packed... mostly for the whole duration. When I get on at 8am though, I barely see anyone in most areas, and only encounter the occasional fleeting presence moving through. Yet... the drops are about equal in both instances.... and I've been doing this for quite some while.

Necron I I · May 22, 2007, 02:26 AM // 02:26

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eli Rela

SV: each(!) ranger dropped something (90% Decayed Orr Emblem, 5% Bones,5% gold coins)
SS: got a 1(one) drop of coins on each group, one Decayed Orr Armor (thats it!)

Ok,i got one that i think ,for what it's worth ,proves that your SS vs SV theory isn't entirely correct.
I've been farming hydras around Augury rock in HM using mostly SV.The poorest drops i've ever gotten out of GW(it isn't profitable but kills the little freetime that i've got

).Now in accordance to the "overfarmed" theory,when the majority of players is atm in NF ,then i should be getting tons of golds + i'm killing one at a time.I have yet to see a gold drop for me in there,whilst when i do the DS farm ,and use splinter barrage build(with it the run takes about 5-7 mins) and kill 1 mob simultaniously, i get between 6-8 gold drops.
This is why I think the "timer" theory is more accurate.Doesen't matter how much u kill at a time,it matters when you kill them.

Edit:
I appologise if you guys can't quite get my logic.It's almost 5:30 AM over here and i'm very sleepy.

Bloodied Blade · May 22, 2007, 02:45 AM // 02:45

With all due respect to the idea behind the thread, there is the finite possibility that all data collected is inherently flawed...thus rendering a possible fact v. myth usage of said data useless.

Oh well, we can try.

Oh...just from my standpoint though, it would be easier to code if there was simply a timer or a truly random chance (possibly changing by updates if there were too many people farming, not overfarming code, but an actual update to the chance that the random drop actually drops).

Good luck figuring this out...they really should just tell us.

Necron I I · May 22, 2007, 03:07 AM // 03:07

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bloodied Blade

Good luck figuring this out...they really should just tell us.

Not a bad idea.One little thing though.If Anet tell us(yeh,as IF

) there will be a major crash of the ingame economy,not that there currently isn't but i consider it to be just a period of the game's "evolution" so to speak...

FoxBat · May 22, 2007, 05:41 AM // 05:41

The scaling per kill rate only applies to.... scaled items. Golds, greens, ectos etc. are unaffected. So slower killing is only something to consider if you are chasing merchant junk; when chasing anything of actual player value, mass aggro + quick kill is still the rule.

Again it's not really about whether you kill them one at a time or all at once, it's about how much time you leave between deaths. Around 20-30 seconds you will be getting full drops, it will be cut down more and more beyond that.

WildmouseX · May 22, 2007, 06:15 AM // 06:15

with the myth of your kill rate, i haven't seen any data that shows killing one by one is better then killing the whole group at a time... the best effort was the graph up at the first page, but that only compares a total of 8 runs, which isn't enough data to make any decissions off of.

most of the myths about farming come from people not understanding the concept of the law of averages.... the more times you do something, the more times each posible outcome will play out.

everytime you flip a coin, you have a 50/50 chance of it landing on heads... but if you flip it only 8 times and it comes up tails 6 times - you have no reason to then think you have 80% chance of tails... and likewise, if you then walk into another room and flip it 8 times again and get all heads, you can't all of a sudden think that fliping it in that room will always net heads.

even if it is true that killing them 1 at a time is netting you more drops - you then have to test the time it takes to drop the mob, vs droping them 1 at a time.. i'm well versed in that spider farm, killing the mob with SS is about a three min. job when they don't co-operate with you --i can only imagine that killing them one at a time is much more costly in time. - if you're doing 5 times as many runs killing the mob, then you do killing them one at a time then the drops will defenetly add up to being more when killing en-mass.

the number one rule of statistics "corolation does not denote causeality".

I've been spirit farming the suicide vamps in urgoz's warren over the last week, and paying particular attention to my drops... i leave with all but one row open in inv of just my backpack. usualy it takes an hour to fill it up twice, and it typicly nets between 3 to 5 gold drops... there have been times when i went in and got gold drops right away, and then they'd dry up untill it was time to merch... and stay dry untill i only had 3 or 4 slots left, and then they'd all drop in 1 run. and other times where one drops every 5 runs. and there have been times when i went over an hour without gold drops, then gotten 12 three runs apart.

since this spot has been very hot recently, it has been packed with people doing the run, and drops have remained unaffected. this means i average 8 golds an hour. i've done 10 hours of farming there over the week, and have id'd 84 golds since i started.

just like anything else in the universe that is governed by the law of averages, there are always going to be peeks and valleys to the drops your getting - it is not a conspiricey by the devs to ruin your fun!

manitoba1073 · May 22, 2007, 07:57 AM // 07:57

Quote:

Originally Posted by WildmouseX

with the myth of your kill rate, i haven't seen any data that shows killing one by one is better then killing the whole group at a time... the best effort was the graph up at the first page, but that only compares a total of 8 runs, which isn't enough data to make any decissions off of.

most of the myths about farming come from people not understanding the concept of the law of averages.... the more times you do something, the more times each posible outcome will play out.

everytime you flip a coin, you have a 50/50 chance of it landing on heads... but if you flip it only 8 times and it comes up tails 6 times - you have no reason to then think you have 80% chance of tails... and likewise, if you then walk into another room and flip it 8 times again and get all heads, you can't all of a sudden think that fliping it in that room will always net heads.

even if it is true that killing them 1 at a time is netting you more drops - you then have to test the time it takes to drop the mob, vs droping them 1 at a time.. i'm well versed in that spider farm, killing the mob with SS is about a three min. job when they don't co-operate with you --i can only imagine that killing them one at a time is much more costly in time. - if you're doing 5 times as many runs killing the mob, then you do killing them one at a time then the drops will defenetly add up to being more when killing en-mass.

the number one rule of statistics "corolation does not denote causeality".

I've been spirit farming the suicide vamps in urgoz's warren over the last week, and paying particular attention to my drops... i leave with all but one row open in inv of just my backpack. usualy it takes an hour to fill it up twice, and it typicly nets between 3 to 5 gold drops... there have been times when i went in and got gold drops right away, and then they'd dry up untill it was time to merch... and stay dry untill i only had 3 or 4 slots left, and then they'd all drop in 1 run. and other times where one drops every 5 runs. and there have been times when i went over an hour without gold drops, then gotten 12 three runs apart.

since this spot has been very hot recently, it has been packed with people doing the run, and drops have remained unaffected. this means i average 8 golds an hour. i've done 10 hours of farming there over the week, and have id'd 84 golds since i started.

just like anything else in the universe that is governed by the law of averages, there are always going to be peeks and valleys to the drops your getting - it is not a conspiricey by the devs to ruin your fun!

Finally someone actually gets it.

you win a cookie

lennymon · May 22, 2007, 08:44 AM // 08:44

For what it's worth, whenever I start getting junky drops (mostly whites and minotaur horns - farming for warrior tomes...) I go do early missions in HM and try again and it seems every time I start getting gold drops (and tomes) again. While the casual rezoning anti farm is gone, I still believe (not enough data for a full blown theory) that there is some kind of drop quality reduction type farm code. The mission reset has been very consistent for me anyways.

deluxe · May 22, 2007, 11:51 AM // 11:51

@anyone denying that mass killing results in lesser drops:

It's proven, if you dont believe it, go ahead and dont believe it. I'm not gonna post huge statistics about my drops just to prove to some people who just wont believe it. I farm a lot (around 2mil since hm), and i'm 100% sure of it.

SotiCoto · May 22, 2007, 12:13 PM // 12:13

Quote:

Originally Posted by Necron I I

Ok,i got one that i think ,for what it's worth ,proves that your SS vs SV theory isn't entirely correct.
I've been farming hydras around Augury rock in HM using mostly SV.The poorest drops i've ever gotten out of GW(it isn't profitable but kills the little freetime that i've got

).Now in accordance to the "overfarmed" theory,when the majority of players is atm in NF ,then i should be getting tons of golds + i'm killing one at a time.I have yet to see a gold drop for me in there,whilst when i do the DS farm ,and use splinter barrage build(with it the run takes about 5-7 mins) and kill 1 mob simultaniously, i get between 6-8 gold drops.
This is why I think the "timer" theory is more accurate.Doesen't matter how much u kill at a time,it matters when you kill them.

Edit:
I appologise if you guys can't quite get my logic.It's almost 5:30 AM over here and i'm very sleepy.

Don't you suppose for an instant that you ought to be comparing the hydras you're killing to something else? There aren't exactly loads of them and I've never known them to have particularly good drops anyway.

In any case... do it another 20 times and see if the pattern is the same.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bloodied Blade

With all due respect to the idea behind the thread, there is the finite possibility that all data collected is inherently flawed...thus rendering a possible fact v. myth usage of said data useless.

On that same basis, there is a finite possibility that all data in the entire world on any and all subjects is inherently flawed... thus rendering it all useless. Everything you have ever been taught therefore is effectively null and void.
Now try going about your life with that premise.

You'll find that "knowledge" is essentially just consistancy of pattern. It certainly isn't infallible... but it can be reliable, and that is what counts. Guild Wars drop rate variables are difficult to predict additionally... but effectively disproving many of these supposed variables as actually being completely unconnected is considerably easier.
I'm not trying to say that any of these things (except where strictly stated by A-Net) are definitely valid.... but there are some that I can say with substancially high certainty are invalid.

Quote:

Originally Posted by WildmouseX

with the myth of your kill rate, i haven't seen any data that shows killing one by one is better then killing the whole group at a time... the best effort was the graph up at the first page, but that only compares a total of 8 runs, which isn't enough data to make any decissions off of.

most of the myths about farming come from people not understanding the concept of the law of averages.... the more times you do something, the more times each posible outcome will play out.

everytime you flip a coin, you have a 50/50 chance of it landing on heads... but if you flip it only 8 times and it comes up tails 6 times - you have no reason to then think you have 80% chance of tails... and likewise, if you then walk into another room and flip it 8 times again and get all heads, you can't all of a sudden think that fliping it in that room will always net heads.

even if it is true that killing them 1 at a time is netting you more drops - you then have to test the time it takes to drop the mob, vs droping them 1 at a time.. i'm well versed in that spider farm, killing the mob with SS is about a three min. job when they don't co-operate with you --i can only imagine that killing them one at a time is much more costly in time. - if you're doing 5 times as many runs killing the mob, then you do killing them one at a time then the drops will defenetly add up to being more when killing en-mass.

the number one rule of statistics "corolation does not denote causeality".

I've been spirit farming the suicide vamps in urgoz's warren over the last week, and paying particular attention to my drops... i leave with all but one row open in inv of just my backpack. usualy it takes an hour to fill it up twice, and it typicly nets between 3 to 5 gold drops... there have been times when i went in and got gold drops right away, and then they'd dry up untill it was time to merch... and stay dry untill i only had 3 or 4 slots left, and then they'd all drop in 1 run. and other times where one drops every 5 runs. and there have been times when i went over an hour without gold drops, then gotten 12 three runs apart.

since this spot has been very hot recently, it has been packed with people doing the run, and drops have remained unaffected. this means i average 8 golds an hour. i've done 10 hours of farming there over the week, and have id'd 84 golds since i started.

just like anything else in the universe that is governed by the law of averages, there are always going to be peeks and valleys to the drops your getting - it is not a conspiricey by the devs to ruin your fun!

Correlation might not denote causality... but if the null hypothesis is always assumed true then effectively we know nothing... and are left in pure chaos. Sometimes one needs to make an arbitrary guess.... select a supposed causality and run with it in order to stand a chance of functioning.

And let us not forget that generally.... in practice.... the more times a particular task is repeated.... the more the results will tend toward the average. This is never perfect... but it can be reliable enough to work with.

Oh.... AND.... didn't we already mention that the whole AoE vs Individual Kill only seems to influence scaled loot? That does seem to be what the trends point to. Gold drops aren't influenced by it... so essentially if you're farming golds you might as well nuke the groups if it will get the whole job done faster.

manitoba1073 · May 22, 2007, 05:27 PM // 17:27

Quote:

Originally Posted by deluxe

@anyone denying that mass killing results in lesser drops:

It's proven, if you dont believe it, go ahead and dont believe it. I'm not gonna post huge statistics about my drops just to prove to some people who just wont believe it. I farm a lot (around 2mil since hm), and i'm 100% sure of it.

apprently you havent farmed enough then. its all random