Curse

dasmitchies · Oct 07, 2008, 04:42 PM // 16:42

This is my first thread ever on any forum, so forgive any stupidity you see.

Has anyone noticed the difference in drop rates / values due to how many characters are logged on at a given time? In two years I have. I have farmed at all times of day and found Mon - Fri 4pm to 9pm and most times on weekends that drops rates are higher and the value is more per drop (as the server may view the value) . The only common thread i have found is the number of people logged on whether they are actively playing, trading or just standing there. I am on eastern standard time btw. I have farmed with most builds in most places and found this to be true regardless of kill rates builds etc.

As an example, in normal mode (i know noob mode) when farming the tengu outside seitung harbor at peak times i get more rune and inscription drops as well as purples during peak hours. This isn't good for my farm as I am trying to get feathers so i usually farm this area "off peak". In UW I want ectos, (duh) well it seems the server sees this as valuable loot and they seem to drop more often during peak hours. This is simply observation albeit 2 years worth.

It also helps to understand what the server deems more valuable loot. Chalk, blue, purple and gold is easy to figure out. Anet's statement about not loot scaling certain items is also a good barometer. And true to pattern, I have found dye, tomes, golds, and rare materials drop far more often during peak times.

To make a few things clear; I do switch farms, do quests etc. to refresh farms. I also have found that as shown elsewhere in these forums, loot seems to be determined when the instance forms and slightly by kill rates. However, I have observed that the number of logins MUST be an important variable in the drop rate codes. Personally I farm during peak times and do everything else during off peak hours.

Has anyone else noticed this and can back me up here?

BTW: Thanks to all the build and farm progenitors out there especially Rezzdog. The grind dies out a bit when farming is an option.

Aceman The Merchant · Oct 07, 2008, 05:32 PM // 17:32

I have been playing since launch and I have to say that I have NEVER seen a correlation between drops and peak times..I too have farmed in the last 3 years different builds in different areas at different times...

I think a lot of it is people "see" patterns (for whatever reasons) where there is none...Even something as random as a coin flip appears to have a pattern (at least in the short term). I still get a chuckle out of a rumor that was going around about a year ago about holding dark remains in your inventory would somehow "make" more ecto drop

..Unfortunately in GW perception IS the reality for some.

Just my 2 cents

Joe Fierce · Oct 07, 2008, 05:45 PM // 17:45

well, I don't know about all this, but i do believe the number of people farming the same thing at once has effects on the drops, this was always a hunch to me that I never got really deep into believing for a while there, just something i noticed, like when the holidays come around and the grawl necklaces seem to drop less and less the more people you see out there farming for them for the holiday stuff.

I always thought this was a hunch till one day I went into uw after there had been a new build out for about an hour and I refused to get it as it was the first nerf to SF and I wanted to keep going... Long story short, 22 ecto run.

It may still be just an unproven hunch, but that's proof enough for me.

Winterclaw · Oct 07, 2008, 06:17 PM // 18:17

The easiest way to test this is to have a bunch farm an area in off-peak hours seperately, compare their drop-rates then all log in together and farm that area at once and compare the results. Perferably they'd log in together during a peak hour to maximize the differences.

At the very least you'd need maybe 50-100 people doing 20-30 runs each for both trials. That gives you between 1k-3k runs which is starting to get large enough to create a statistical sample from.

tmakinen · Oct 07, 2008, 06:29 PM // 18:29

Seconded, it's hard to see a reason why this would be so, and it would require a large, objectively measured sample if you're trying to suggest the existence of such a phenomenon. The human mind doesn't handle randomness well so I want to see some actual statistics.

A Simple Farmer · Oct 07, 2008, 07:04 PM // 19:04

I haven't seen a correlation between server loads and good drops, whether midweek or Event Weekend.

When I was trying to sync load (soj vs sv thread) I noticed that towns/explorable areas that are empty (eg Piken Square int D1) are hosted on the same server (ip) as those that are full (Rata Sum). Though at the time I was trying to see if it was easier to sync from a loaded server as opposed to an uloaded server.

So here's my theory:
There are 3 IP connections that GW makes, 1 is a login connection, it's the first connection and transfer's a couple bytes of info when you login. 2 is the message system (if you are disconnected from the chat, it drops the IP's connection). 3 is the town/explorable/motion data.

So for the login connection 1; data is only transfered when you login, not much help from that...

Connection 2, the message system ; if you ever are disconnected you'll still get drops, and you will keep them once you are reconnected, so that system doesn't determine drops.

Connection 3, the town/explorable; when you go from town to explorable area all IP traffic is on the town/explorably IP, meaning the town is generating the drops and mobs spawns etc movements etc... When you load into an explorable area from an empty or full town, into a popular or unpopular area it's on the same server as a loaded one (Anet load balances). Meaning if you leave from a full town or not, it's the same as leaving from an empty one.

So to address your theory, towns or explorable areas generate drops on zone, and it seems unlikely that a town server or explorable area server would check all the connection from all the players that are online to determine drops everytime someone zones. That's a lot of traffic, and is unlikely as there is already a system connecting all players together, an independent low-bandwidth connection, the personal messaging system :-) Which has nothing todo with drops.

Of course it's possible that there's some "a lot of people are online, so increase your drops" flag that is passed from the messaging system to all the town/explorable, so better drops occur on the weekend, IMHOP I don't see the advantage, at least from Anet's perspective, I mean how does it improve GW?

Kerwyn Nasilan · Oct 07, 2008, 10:22 PM // 22:22

It doesn't really make sense and would be near impossible to test.

MisterB · Oct 07, 2008, 10:35 PM // 22:35

Gaile Gray has said at least once that drop rates in an instance are not influenced by any actions of other players in a different instance of the same area, nor by the actions or presence of anyone who isn't in your party in that instance. I'm paraphrasing here. She presumably got those answers from the devs responsible for the drop system. Absent any non-anecdotal evidence, I think I'll take the developer's word for it rather than any other opinions to the contrary.

Fay Vert · Oct 07, 2008, 11:30 PM // 23:30

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joe Fierce

I always thought this was a hunch till one day I went into uw after there had been a new build out for about an hour and I refused to get it as it was the first nerf to SF and I wanted to keep going... Long story short, 22 ecto run.

So was this a fluke one off? or could you consistently get that sort of return per run while SF was nerfed?

I myself have never noticed a difference depending on server load. Its hard to imagine a mechanism for this. The only thing I can think of as an explanation is that high server lag could cause a "loot" network packet to be lost. But I doubt this as the loot message would have to be robust for those times when loot drops in a party, you never have a situation where some people see loot and others don't.

HawkofStorms · Oct 08, 2008, 03:16 AM // 03:16

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kerwyn Nasilan

It doesn't really make sense and would be near impossible to test.

That.

Trader prices flux in peak times, but that's because more people are buying, not more/less stuff is being farmed.
I highly doubt your theory is correct, and even if it was there would be no way to prove it anyways.

Really, I just think it is random (blah blah blah, computers "can't" be random, but if you know the math, they essentially are) and EVERYBODY just tries to see patterns in things when there isn't one.
People with mathematical training like me have all kinds of examples of this.

fog_of_redoubt · Oct 08, 2008, 04:52 AM // 04:52

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joe Fierce

well, I don't know about all this, but i do believe the number of people farming the same thing at once has effects on the drops, this was always a hunch to me that I never got really deep into believing for a while there, just something i noticed, like when the holidays come around and the grawl necklaces seem to drop less and less the more people you see out there farming for them for the holiday stuff.

I always thought this was a hunch till one day I went into uw after there had been a new build out for about an hour and I refused to get it as it was the first nerf to SF and I wanted to keep going... Long story short, 22 ecto run.

It may still be just an unproven hunch, but that's proof enough for me.

I think when I wearing armor with green dye I get better drops than when I have armor with yellow dye. I havent check deep into it either, but I am sure.

relt · Oct 08, 2008, 05:31 AM // 05:31

If this theory was correct, couldn't you just hop over to whatever region is in it's "peak time"? ie, morning Eastern time is peak time for much of Eorope, so just change district and you stay in "peak time"!

I think Aceman has it right, we are all prone to see patterns, oftentimes where none exists. For the most part you only notice something if you are watching for it. I'm sure if you noticed some strange phenomenon while playing during your "non-peak time" you would soon start watching for it and then see it everywhere. Whenever my family gets a new car I start noticing that model everywhere (even from the same dealer!), but does that mean that because my family got the new car, everyone else went out to get the same thing? No, I am simply paying more attention.

And to quote The Simple Farmer, why would A-Net do this? To penalize those players whose schedules don't allow them to play during "peak times"? If the drops are determined when a player/party enters an area as other threads here indicate, why would the number of people logged in affect your drop rate? I know rhetorical questions aren't the best way to make an argument, but it's late and my brain wants to shut down.

dasmitchies · Oct 08, 2008, 05:44 AM // 05:44

Ok Ok I am getting a lot of naysayers here. I was simply posting my observations. BTW I was farming ectos all day and sure enough the drops started being less frequent at 9pm. As for why Anet would make a population check in their code? I dunno, but if you belive everything Anet does makes sense you lost ur mind. I could be wrong, I could be right. Just an observation. BTW I too have a lot of math training. The drop code is hardly random as proven in other ares of this forum. It would make sense that all of this could be due to the way loot scaling was implemented. The developers would never give any true hint as to how drops were truly determined. Giving any information would cause a possible exploit. I am not seeing things here folks.

Joe Fierce · Oct 08, 2008, 07:21 AM // 07:21

Quote:

Originally Posted by fog_of_redoubt

I think when I wearing armor with green dye I get better drops than when I have armor with yellow dye. I havent check deep into it either, but I am sure.

and that's why i say it's unproven and a HUNCH, go troll somewhere else. At least you're wearing green dye though, it's at least a good color.

Quote:

Originally Posted by HawkofStorms

People with mathematical training like me have all kinds of examples of this.

the human mind is made so that it easily recognizes patterns, which is completely what my theory is based on, whether or not it's true, even in the slightest bit, still makes yah feel better when farming. The truth isn't as nice as what we believe it to be, in any situation in life.

imnotyourmother · Oct 10, 2008, 05:49 PM // 17:49

Well I believe that it does effect the drop rate on a particular server. To just do a test server wide would not be ideal. Now to do a test on the SAME SERVER would be ideal.

Here are my findings.

At the last festival - the pirate one- Grog was dropping. I farmed Grog in PRESEARING outside of For Ranik with my lvl 15 Monk/Ele. I would take them to one spot and then firestorm them. They do not run away in pre as they are lvl 1-3 or something like that.

The drop rate of the Grog would very greatly depending on how long I was on and what server I got. A guild member and myself were running solo at the same time. We told each other when we got a grog. Sometimes we got three, two, one, or no grog at all. Very rarely did one of use get 3 but it happened.

Now what we did notice is that if we were farming for more than 4 hours - or we were logged in for more than 4 hours- the grog would stop dropping for almost an hour. I suggested after much frustration to simply shut down GW and then log in again.

This would work and then we would get the drops again up until the 3rd or 4th hour.

On Saturday I farmed almost 400 grog myself this way which I sold for 250 gold each in presearing for a one day farming total of 100K in pre. I farmed for 12 hours or so and averaged 30 an hour or there abouts. no life but I got gold.