Curse

Icy The Mage · Oct 29, 2010, 04:51 PM // 16:51

So I did a little bit of research, here are my findings (this is just the data for my first `session`, keeping myself logged in for one period of time..):

(Pretty much every day looks exactly the same, farmed over 10 stacks of ToT bags so far...)

This is the data I actually have saved, other data got deleted after my computer crashed from being online for 72 hours :/

I can therefore conclude that the amount of ToT bags do not decrease as you keep farming over time. These drops are random and are not influenced by how long you've been farming for.

Raw Data:
http://www.speedyshare.com/files/249...ming_stats.xls
http://www.speedyshare.com/files/249...ming_stats.ods

WarcryOfTruth · Oct 29, 2010, 05:04 PM // 17:04

I'm glad someone posted something like this, there is no penalty for farming too much and there is no reward if you only farm a little bit. Thank you for this

Xiao Erh · Oct 29, 2010, 05:26 PM // 17:26

The amount of glacial stones i.e. 64 stones for 167 runs is very little considering that per run one normally gets a few stones. I have never come across a single run where no stones dropped. You ought to get more than 2 stacks at least.

Voodoo Rage · Oct 29, 2010, 05:57 PM // 17:57

Thank you thank you. I've been arguing this for years but never was able to present my data so elegantly.

Now if we could only beat some sense into the idiots calling for leechers in Rata Sum.

Frozen Ele · Oct 29, 2010, 06:00 PM // 18:00

Statistical analysis would beef up your conclusion: adding a line of least-squares regression would significantly validate (or possibly invalidate) your claim. If the number of bags doesn't decrease of increase over time, the slope of a linear-regression would be zero. If the number of bags increases, the slope would be greater than zero. Finally, if the slope was less than zero, it would suggest the number of bags over time does in fact decrease.

Next, even with statistical analysis, you're findings don't prove causality. With your findings, you could only establish that there is or isn't a correlation between number of runs and bag drops, not that time doesn't have an affect on bag drops (because not every variable was controlled, it could have been that time does decrease bag drops but that by varying the order of the skills used, etc. could have compensated for the lost bags). I don't want to seem critical because there are so many uncontrollable variables (one has to assume that he's working in an isolated environment once in an explorable area and that the number of other people in the area at the same time (but not in your party - they also mapped into the explorable area on their own) or that have recently entered the area have no affect on your system). Knowing that there are a lot of variables, it might be good to go through and explain your method – which build were you using, did you kill the Vaettirs in a few large groups or in a lot of smaller ones, which pull techniques (if any) did you use, etc. This would also help us to understand how valid your conclusion is, since could check to se if you missed any major controllable variables.

The last point that I'd make is that you're looking at holiday drop rates. It could be that the developers engineered holiday drops so that their drop rates are always relatively consistent. With that, I'm glad that you said "the amount of ToT bags do not decrease as you keep farming over time" (emphasis added) and not that drops in general don't decrease over time. I'm just worried that someone might misinterpret your findings and think that drops in general don't decrease over time (based off the comments already, I would say that some already have, so I would make more of a note that these findings only reflect ToT drop rates so people don't misinterpret).

I certainly appreciate these findings and could be one step closer to understanding drop rates, but I still think statistical analysis would greatly further the study. If you wanted, I could run some of the statistics if you posted all of your data of how many bags you got during each run.

WarcryOfTruth · Oct 29, 2010, 06:19 PM // 18:19

Quote:

Originally Posted by Voodoo Rage

Thank you thank you. I've been arguing this for years but never was able to present my data so elegantly.

Now if we could only beat some sense into the idiots calling for leechers in Rata Sum.

Actually, having leechers can give you more drops, because Loot Scaling makes solo farming an 8 person area give you only your share of drops. Using a full team will increase the drop rate, but remember, with 8 people all of the drops are spread out between teammates.

Think of it like this: farming an 8 person area with 8 people in your party, lets just say for the sake of example, enemies will drop something 100% of the time. But because there are 8 people in the party, YOU personally have a 12.5% chance of getting any particular drop. So, based on that, if you solo farm an 8 person area, each enemy will have a 12.5% chance of dropping an item, BUT because you are by yourself, 100% of the items are yours.

Essentially the same thing, you, in theory, get the same amount of drops. Now, if you have leechers, as in have party members outside of your aggro bubble, because your party is full, the drop rate will be as if you have a full party, but since the way ANet decided to make drops where if you are out of party range when a foe drops an item, the drop cannot be reserved for you, and every drop will belong to the farmer.

This is the same as if you take heroes and henchmen with you, If you raptor farm with heroes and henchmen in your party grayed out, your drops will also increase because although they don't get "drops" per se, their drops are invisible and keeping them out of party range will, or I should say SHOULD be the same as having a full party of human players outside of party range.

I am not a huge fan of farming but I hope that helps you

N E D M · Oct 29, 2010, 06:25 PM // 18:25

5947 vaettirs slain = 100%
60 vaettirs per run
how did you get an odd number?

Voodoo Rage · Oct 29, 2010, 06:29 PM // 18:29

Quote:

Originally Posted by WarcryOfTruth

Actually, having leechers can give you more drops, because Loot Scaling makes solo farming an 8 person area give you only your share of drops. Using a full team will increase the drop rate, but remember, with 8 people all of the drops are spread out between teammates.

Think of it like this: farming an 8 person area with 8 people in your party, lets just say for the sake of example, enemies will drop something 100% of the time. But because there are 8 people in the party, YOU personally have a 12.5% chance of getting any particular drop. So, based on that, if you solo farm an 8 person area, each enemy will have a 12.5% chance of dropping an item, BUT because you are by yourself, 100% of the items are yours.

Essentially the same thing, you, in theory, get the same amount of drops. Now, if you have leechers, as in have party members outside of your aggro bubble, because your party is full, the drop rate will be as if you have a full party, but since the way ANet decided to make drops where if you are out of party range when a foe drops an item, the drop cannot be reserved for you, and every drop will belong to the farmer.

This is the same as if you take heroes and henchmen with you, If you raptor farm with heroes and henchmen in your party grayed out, your drops will also increase because although they don't get "drops" per se, their drops are invisible and keeping them out of party range will, or I should say SHOULD be the same as having a full party of human players outside of party range.

I am not a huge fan of farming but I hope that helps you

It just doesn't hold up when you track the actual drops though. I posted my numbers a few times here but clearly full parties had no influence at all on drops. It's pretty obvious that when your party is greyed out, monsters drop items as if it were a solo farmer.

WarcryOfTruth · Oct 29, 2010, 06:30 PM // 18:30

Quote:

Originally Posted by Voodoo Rage

It just doesn't hold up when you track the actual drops though. I posted my numbers a few times here but clearly full parties had no influence at all on drops. It's pretty obvious that when your party is greyed out, monsters drop items as if it were a solo farmer.

Oh for real? Maybe the few times I've ever done that they were flukes, I'll shut up now

Riot Narita · Oct 29, 2010, 06:33 PM // 18:33

Quote:

Originally Posted by WarcryOfTruth

Actually, having leechers can give you more drops,

Wrong.

Years of Raptor farming, tracking my drops per hour with/without leechers, and tracking drops per hour of other farmers when I was a leech myself... says you are wrong.

Leechers make no difference to drops, and if anything you get less - due to wasting time in town gathering leechers (time you could have spent doing extra runs)

Nice work, OP - confirms my own experience, very consistent averages.

Light And Peace · Oct 29, 2010, 06:35 PM // 18:35

http://wiki.guildwars.com/wiki/Anti-farm_code

Is there any reason to dispute this? I mean really? Since so many things that we farm are EXEMPT, why waste your time testing EXEMPT items? Because all of the following are exempt, leechers will not help you with drops because...well everything you get from raptors basically is on the list (of any value). Your white, blue, common mat drops are scaled, but not the important more expensive stuff.

http://wiki.guildwars.com/wiki/Devel...dates/20070420

Quote:

Official facts

Since the first implementation:

* Farming alone will yield fewer total items than farming with a full party, though more items per individual character.
* Certain items are not affected:
o Skill tomes
o Scrolls
o Dye
o Rare materials
o All rare (gold colored) items
o All unique (green) items
o Special event items
* Repeated map entry does not reduce loot (source).

Voodoo Rage · Oct 29, 2010, 06:38 PM // 18:38

Here's the post I made previously regarding leechers:

"I did some pretty accurate tabulations (sorry, you'll have to take my word for it since it's just a bunch of numbers I'm reporting). This was about a year ago using an Ele/Mes. The method I used was to do ten runs in a row and then sell off everything I farmed. All items were identified and merched (cost of ident kits was accounted for). Tomes were given a value of 100g and 3k (that was the value at the time, I realize it's not worth as much now). Elemental swords were given a nominal value too (again, I realize they aren't worth anything anymore). I merched dyes at the time for fairly low money, so I probably could have made more by trading them. I also could have made more money by SALVAGING conch shells into glittering dust. Also my Ele/Mes build probably averaged about 29-30 kills, not a full clear.

As a solo farmer:

500 runs: 265 gold weapon drops (that's about a drop rate of 1.75% per raptor killed). In terms of unid gold value, this represents about 190k in income. Most importantly this also represents a MINORITY of the amount of money made. OVERALL income which included all merched items too came to about 432k (the real money is all those whites, blues, purples, dyes, etc...). So I was making roughly 860 gold PER raptor run.

I then tabulated some data for taking leechers (a minimum of 3, up to a full party). This proved a bit more cumbersome, so I limited my data to 100 runs instead of 500.

100 runs: 52 gold weapon drops (again about the same drop rate). Overall value of all items merched and unid golds came to 87k. This is 870 gold per raptor run (not statistically significant for this sample size).

Now I understand my sample size is still limited and I'm not a math guy at all so don't get up my ass about statistical stuff, but in my opinion it really made no different in overall drops or income if you took along leechers or not. I don't doubt that drop rates might be tweaked a bit from a year ago, so current numbers may vary. I don't really have the energy to do this again with a necro or warrior build, but I'm comfortable enough to say that solo farming is the way to go unless you really feel the need to help people get Asuran points."

jackinthe · Oct 29, 2010, 06:42 PM // 18:42

Quote:

Originally Posted by Xiao Erh

The amount of glacial stones i.e. 64 stones for 167 runs is very little considering that per run one normally gets a few stones. I have never come across a single run where no stones dropped. You ought to get more than 2 stacks at least.

with holiday items dropping, other items have always dropped less. my guildees stopped ecto farming during them because of this

Icy The Mage · Oct 29, 2010, 07:09 PM // 19:09

Quote:

Originally Posted by N E D M

5947 vaettirs slain = 100%
60 vaettirs per run
how did you get an odd number?

I farmed the 36 group, I also accounted for runs where 1 or 2 survived as well as when a group of 4 broke off.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Frozen Ele

Statistical analysis would beef up your conclusion: adding a line of least-squares regression would significantly validate (or possibly invalidate) your claim. If the number of bags doesn't decrease of increase over time, the slope of a linear-regression would be zero. If the number of bags increases, the slope would be greater than zero. Finally, if the slope was less than zero, it would suggest the number of bags over time does in fact decrease.

Next, even with statistical analysis, you're findings don't prove causality. With your findings, you could only establish that there is or isn't a correlation between number of runs and bag drops, not that time doesn't have an affect on bag drops (because not every variable was controlled, it could have been that time does decrease bag drops but that by varying the order of the skills used, etc. could have compensated for the lost bags). I don't want to seem critical because there are so many uncontrollable variables (one has to assume that he's working in an isolated environment once in an explorable area and that the number of other people in the area at the same time (but not in your party - they also mapped into the explorable area on their own) or that have recently entered the area have no affect on your system). Knowing that there are a lot of variables, it might be good to go through and explain your method – which build were you using, did you kill the Vaettirs in a few large groups or in a lot of smaller ones, which pull techniques (if any) did you use, etc. This would also help us to understand how valid your conclusion is, since could check to se if you missed any major controllable variables.

The last point that I'd make is that you're looking at holiday drop rates. It could be that the developers engineered holiday drops so that their drop rates are always relatively consistent. With that, I'm glad that you said "the amount of ToT bags do not decrease as you keep farming over time" (emphasis added) and not that drops in general don't decrease over time. I'm just worried that someone might misinterpret your findings and think that drops in general don't decrease over time (based off the comments already, I would say that some already have, so I would make more of a note that these findings only reflect ToT drop rates so people don't misinterpret).

I certainly appreciate these findings and could be one step closer to understanding drop rates, but I still think statistical analysis would greatly further the study. If you wanted, I could run some of the statistics if you posted all of your data of how many bags you got during each run.

You're absolutely right, unfortunately I don't exactly have a bunch of time to do everything with University studies, but I completely agree with you.
Some notes:

I did all 167 runs consecutively, consecutively being defined as one log-in session, mapping back to town twice to put my drops in storage. I did nothing except farm Vaettir, map to Longeye's, ID items, use the merchant / storage and run back to farm more.
I honestly believe that the more people farming them at the same time actually decreases the overall droprate, but I'm not in the position, nor do I have the information to prove or account for this.
I killed all 36 vaettir at once using a Hundred blades/WW combo.
The data for these runs exactly can be found as an OpenOffice Spreadsheet (.ods) file here: http://www.speedyshare.com/files/249...ming_stats.ods

Quote:

Originally Posted by WarcryOfTruth

Actually, having leechers can give you more drops, because Loot Scaling makes solo farming an 8 person area give you only your share of drops. Using a full team will increase the drop rate, but remember, with 8 people all of the drops are spread out between teammates.

Think of it like this: farming an 8 person area with 8 people in your party, lets just say for the sake of example, enemies will drop something 100% of the time. But because there are 8 people in the party, YOU personally have a 12.5% chance of getting any particular drop. So, based on that, if you solo farm an 8 person area, each enemy will have a 12.5% chance of dropping an item, BUT because you are by yourself, 100% of the items are yours.

Essentially the same thing, you, in theory, get the same amount of drops. Now, if you have leechers, as in have party members outside of your aggro bubble, because your party is full, the drop rate will be as if you have a full party, but since the way ANet decided to make drops where if you are out of party range when a foe drops an item, the drop cannot be reserved for you, and every drop will belong to the farmer.

This is the same as if you take heroes and henchmen with you, If you raptor farm with heroes and henchmen in your party grayed out, your drops will also increase because although they don't get "drops" per se, their drops are invisible and keeping them out of party range will, or I should say SHOULD be the same as having a full party of human players outside of party range.

I am not a huge fan of farming but I hope that helps you

Wrong, but thanks for your input.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Xiao Erh

The amount of glacial stones i.e. 64 stones for 167 runs is very little considering that per run one normally gets a few stones. I have never come across a single run where no stones dropped. You ought to get more than 2 stacks at least.

Perhaps this requires a different testing method and could provide us with valuable insight as to how these drops are scaled based on several different variables. I do only kill 36 rather than all 60 so maybe you are slightly confused in that department?

Quote:

Originally Posted by WarcryOfTruth

I'm glad someone posted something like this, there is no penalty for farming too much and there is no reward if you only farm a little bit. Thank you for this

Careful with that assumption, this research is ToT bags (and most likely other event drops) only.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Voodoo Rage

Thank you thank you. I've been arguing this for years but never was able to present my data so elegantly.

Now if we could only beat some sense into the idiots calling for leechers in Rata Sum.

I know right? What used to be a nice and helping gesture has become a fallacious method to achieve more drops.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Light And Peace

http://wiki.guildwars.com/wiki/Anti-farm_code

Is there any reason to dispute this? I mean really? Since so many things that we farm are EXEMPT, why waste your time testing EXEMPT items? Because all of the following are exempt, leechers will not help you with drops because...well everything you get from raptors basically is on the list (of any value). Your white, blue, common mat drops are scaled, but not the important more expensive stuff.

http://wiki.guildwars.com/wiki/Devel...dates/20070420

People in power don't always tell the truth. Trust me.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jackinthe

with holiday items dropping, other items have always dropped less. my guildees stopped ecto farming during them because of this

This could prove to be an interesting mechanic, perhaps it is what I'll test next!

Light And Peace · Oct 29, 2010, 07:41 PM // 19:41

I understand your need to question authority and to supply evidence for and against and ANET does make mistakes time to time. They unfairly banned me, so I can't really argue that point.

However, in light of what they do say, it would show that leeching doesn't help. Secondly, with your data, we could at least say holiday items definitely appear to be exempt in light of a full statistical analysis of the information.

Between what you presented and what anet has said, I don't feel there's a big need to disprove the other items perse.

Chrisworld · Oct 29, 2010, 07:52 PM // 19:52

I ended up farming for ToT bags only once, (on run) this year with that little undead place near the beginning of GoK.

I got like.. 1 ToT bag and about 5 dyes, one being black....

And when I farm there FOR dyes, I get none.

LOL

Xiao Erh · Oct 29, 2010, 09:32 PM // 21:32

Perhaps you ought to read first your post before saying I was confused. No mentioned at all that you were doing only 36 kills per run. Even so your figures for glacial stones appears incorrect.

"Perhaps this requires a different testing method and could provide us with valuable insight as to how these drops are scaled based on several different variables. I do only kill 36 rather than all 60 so maybe you are slightly confused in that department?"

Jackinthe, obviously you have not farm vaettirs because your statement is made without real facts. You are walking on thin ice here.

"with holiday items dropping, other items have always dropped less. my guildees stopped ecto farming during them because of this."

Ensign · Oct 29, 2010, 10:07 PM // 22:07

Looks like a pretty clear cut case of a static drop rate of appx. 1/8.

I can only approximate since I don't have the raw data, but a rough fit of the plot shows the static drop rate null hypothesis explains about 95% of the total variance in drops per run. Since the number of kills per run obviously varies (since it's non-integer) you have another clear source for some of the missing variance, and not a whole lot of room for any additional effects.

byteme! · Oct 30, 2010, 01:50 AM // 01:50

Quote:

Originally Posted by WarcryOfTruth

Actually, having leechers can give you more drops, because Loot Scaling makes solo farming an 8 person area give you only your share of drops.

You people have to stop providing false info. Someone is gonna read your post and take your word for it.

Light And Peace · Oct 30, 2010, 01:56 AM // 01:56

as I said official statements says that holiday drops are not part of the anti-farm code.

And secondly, again, leechers don't help with the drops on golds, tomes, scrolls, dye, holiday items, so how does it help a raptor farmer?