Curse

Bright Star Shine · May 09, 2012, 08:47 AM // 08:47

Quote:

Originally Posted by HigherMinion

My initial claim was that Witman's was the fastest and most economic run. I suggest, for better results, going through 100 LOCKPICKS, not chests. This will yield much better results. The amount of picks you broke for NM were a wild fluke. I did 100 chests with only 33 picks.

You will find your results are inaccurate and even biased since you fixed it to be "merch everything at witmans/ptrade everything in Kama for Pongmei".

If you read my post above you, you'll ready that I did the approximate math for selling everything from Witman's in Kama. I added the 400g difference I would have made from the goldies to the total money earned. It still ends up less economical.

If you want to do the same test using 100 Lockpicks instead, feel free to do so. It's bound to have similar results. I don't see how doing 100 chests/test is a bad representation. It's just different. Also, how are the picks I broke in NM a wild fluke? Because, statistically, I broke a little bit too many? Happened in Pongmei as well. I broke 77 instead of 74.

You will find that I did my test as unbiased as I could and that I'm even meeting you half way by doing extra math. I understood your claim to be

Quote:

Originally Posted by HigherMinion

I will concede, It clearly won't be the best for unlucky, but you will naturally max Unlucky before Lucky anyway. You're also talking with false information if you think you can seriously profit from regular drops in Pongmei with a 30% retention rate. You'll be able to profit a good deal more from common drops in Witman's, including survivor insignias (common), Major/Sup Vigs and dual-vamp weapons which crop up every now and then.

Hard Mode grants better drops and more golds at the cost of much lower retention. that doesn't magically make it cheaper; quite the opposite. I have a far higher chance to get multiple golds from one lockpick, while you will generally break on the first or second chest.

To which I replied that my claim was

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bright Star Shine

Again, it's been stated by many experienced chestrunner multiple times that running in HM is more cost-effective than NM, because of the drops you get. If you need to go for Lucky as well though, running HM won't really help you. But cost effectiveness doesn't apply in NM, and especially not in Witman's Folly. The gold drops you get in HM that are definite trash, you sell unid for 7=5k and the ones that might bring you a good buck (q9 swords, any shield that's been tested for +5xwH, q9-10 rare staffs etc) you id yourself. Doing this + selling elite tomes will get you at least break even, or maybe a little bit less if you have very low retain chance (<30%). And even in HM, the droprates in Witman's are terrible, at least Pongmei gives you the chance of getting a nice drop (and don't say it doesn't happen, I saw someone get a q9 tac +10vDemons +45wE Echovald after opening 10 chests) that can give you some money, even if it's just 20-30k.

and I tested both of them exactly as they were said. And even when I tell you that when I would've done Witman's with selling the unids, I still would have ended up with more costs than in Pongmei HM, you still accuse me of being biased. Pot meet kettle much? I joined the discussion in an adult matter, provided you with data to back up both our claims (yours being that Witman's is indeed faster chest/time wise, mine that Pongmei is about equal), I show complete willingness to change my opinion and back down if proven wrong (which I was with the chest/time thingy) and you still dare accuse me of being biased.

Reformed · May 09, 2012, 02:40 PM // 14:40

Should be common sense that selling off drops at rates 2-3x the merch is going to make more money. Did that actually need to be tested?

superraptors · May 09, 2012, 11:27 PM // 23:27

@above why wouldn't you be selling the rates at 2-3x each? we are talking about being economical aren't we?

Witman's is definitely a fast run but it is quite inconsistent in my own experience. sometimes its 1:30 or slightly less for 2 chests or it can be up to 2:30-45 for 2-3 chests or sometimes even 1:30 for 1 chest on some occasions.

Pongmei, i never go over 3:50 for 5 chests and that is with terrible spawns, with SUPERB spawns i believe you can get to 2:45-3:00 for 5 chests. i did a couple last week testing my time, i think out of a dozen i got around 5 chests in 5-6 of the runs in 3:15-20 area, highest was 3:45 and the rest inbetween (recorded a run if anyone is interested, super laggy tho)

i would say for pongmei for me:
5 chests - 75%
4 chests - 20%
3 chests 5%

i did a 100 chest test aswell for pongmei yesterday, i merched my golds instead of selling them as unid.
(used my brothers account as he quit a long time ago)

normal tomes: 4 (1.2k)
elite tomes: 4 (28k)
golds: 65 purples: 27 (22k)
retain: 16%(i believe)
broken picks: 83

money loss - money gained

99.6k-51k = 48.4k loss in money

now why did i lose so much? because i didn't sell off my golds as unids (which is really really stupid if you aren't doing it)

or i can let people id for 400-500 and return then merch it for 300 per a piece + the rune money. so we can say an average of 850g per a gold. not even including the items that could be valuable.

45k-55k from selling golds as unids or letting people id and return + 29.2k from tomes +4k from the purples it would narrow my losses down alot and that is with 16% retain, if i had 20% retain i would easily break even or narrow losses to 10-20k margin easily.

i also got far more purples and normal tomes than i usually do.

i have probably done about 1k chests in Witmans all together and it is absolutely boring like snodard said.

Witmans is only good for speed and you might break even(unless you are 30%+). you will have 0% chance of getting absolutely rich.

Pongmei is good for speed and you WILL break even @ 25%+ easily. you will have a chance of getting absolutely rich.

im easily making profit at 40%+ on my acc and i don't even pick purples up ever(except for this test).

bright summed this thread up quite nicely tho. and lol shadow of haste is good i actually use it alot back when i was running gyala hatchery but forgot about it completely lol.

Voodoo Rage · May 10, 2012, 12:11 AM // 00:11

As an aside in this thread. I noticed that Amber Wands ALWAYS merch into glittering dust. Is it cost effective to salvage them?

Jan Breydel · May 11, 2012, 11:39 AM // 11:39

I'll just share my own experience in the NM vs HM debate.

I've ran over 10K chests on NM and over 10K on HM. (though most of the NM was before lockpicks).

My conclusions? having a 43% retain in HM and 73% in NM I noticed that /80 lockpicks my profits were about the same on either mode.

So obviously HM is better. why? because i expressed my profits /80 lockpicks, and ofcourse you will run out of lockpicks alot faster in HM. Ergo when you look at the profits per unit of time, hard mode is better.

And this is excluding high end drops. And no matter what people may claim, hard mode is better for high end drops. Better gold rate equals better chance of getting rare skins as a gold drop equals better chance of ending up with a high end item.

And to end. Witmans is FAR from the most economic run, which is exactly why people stopped running there 6 years ago. Yes getting rare drops doesnt happen very often (hence the name rare, right?). But excluding them from the equation entirely is absurd. If you don't think so just come trade me ingame and i'll show you the stuff i got dropped by running in places that make sense.

CE Devilman · May 12, 2012, 07:54 PM // 19:54

outside CTC in HM

near same place 90% of the time

most of the time its a 1 min run or less..