Curse

HigherMinion · May 05, 2012, 09:07 PM // 21:07

Quote:

Originally Posted by Whirl E Vic

Since I already have the spreadsheet set up, changing from r2 to r5 with the rest the same:

NM 65% retain = 285 chests= 71 gold, 214 purple ~ 71.5k
HM 35% retain (no tome) = 154 chests, 115 gold, 38 purple ~84k
HM w/tomes = 154 chests, 111.5 gold, 34.6 purple, 7.7 E tome ~ 128k (Profit!)

Math doesn't lie. HM is always better. Set up your own spreadsheet and prove it to yourself.

It lies when you assume important values and don't include chance to find major/superior vigors. Also, elite tomes are generally 6k each, with war tomes being 4k only.

snodaard · May 05, 2012, 09:10 PM // 21:10

Quote:

Originally Posted by HigherMinion

It lies when you assume important values and don't include chance to find major/superior vigors. Also, elite tomes are generally 6k each, with war tomes being 4k only.

those off chances are the same, both for NM and HM. So that won't change a thing. also if you lower the elite tome profits HM is still beter then NM.

But please go on defending your statement, it's quite amusing

HigherMinion · May 05, 2012, 09:26 PM // 21:26

Quote:

Originally Posted by snodaard

those off chances are the same, both for NM and HM. So that won't change a thing. also if you lower the elite tome profits HM is still beter then NM.

But please go on defending your statement, it's quite amusing

How can you believe the odds are the same? It's not just the separate chance to get a drop from a chest, but you retain more lockpicks to have a greater chance at getting those drops per LP. Hence, economic and fast.

Rice · May 05, 2012, 11:02 PM // 23:02

I have ran over 19k chests total and my fav spot is Icedome in HM by far. It is a very small area but can have 2-4 chest spwan. From my experience, I say 2 chests 10% chance spawn, 3 chests 60%, and 4 chests 30%. The full run takes about 3-4 min to complete so you are getting just over 1 min per chest.

The drop in Ice dome is very good too. Rares such as unisc Summit Warlord Shield, Stone Summit Shield, Summit Axe and Summit Hammer can fetch decent price if mods are good. You also get alot of armor drops, usually 40-50% of all drops are armor pieces. On top of that, tyrian armor pieces have the highest chance to yield Vigor runes since there are only 6 professions in prophecy, compared to 8 professions in nightfall and factions.

Because there are no towns connected to Icedone, the trick to achieve fast runs is to run dual account. Enter Icedome from Talus Chute and park your second account at the entrance portal. Run with first account and when u get all the chests in the zone, zone back to Talus with second account and go back in again. Enter from Frozen forest is not recommended because you can catch immediate agro from that portal.

Murthag The Great · May 06, 2012, 03:09 PM // 15:09

Does any1 have a map for the pogmei valley chest run? There was one in the chestrunners thread but it was removed

snodaard · May 06, 2012, 04:31 PM // 16:31

not removed at all

http://www.guildwarsguru.com/forum/s...postcount=1123

Enchanted Krystal · May 07, 2012, 12:43 PM // 12:43

Quote:

Originally Posted by Murthag The Great

Does any1 have a map for the pogmei valley chest run?

Leaving from Boreas Seabed, I go this way. Most times you get 5 chests & I always run in HM. Run takes 6 mins max.

As for my favourite & efficient, Hell's Precpice all the way! (as it saves me a ton of cash not having to buy Magmas!

)

Edit: This was the 1st time I have done this run in about 12 months, so that could be why it took a little longer.

Whirl E Vic · May 07, 2012, 01:14 PM // 13:14

Quote:

Originally Posted by HigherMinion

It lies when you assume important values and don't include chance to find major/superior vigors. Also, elite tomes are generally 6k each, with war tomes being 4k only.

*sigh*
I used 6k as the average value of the tomes in all calculations.

All the runes do is increase the value of both gold and purple drops. Since virtually all gold runes are more valuable than purple runes, the value of the gold drops increases faster than the value of the purple drops and it just skews it even more in favor of HM even when you account for the increased retains, as I have shown above.

You are welcome to challenge my values with reasonable ones of your own to try to prove your point. Frequency of Elite Tome drops is supported here:
http://www.guildwarsguru.com/forum/s...&postcount=389
You'll soon find out what the rest of us have figured out. Regardless, run whatever the hell you want. I'm done dealing with a moron/troll on an internet forum.

Bright Star Shine · May 07, 2012, 04:37 PM // 16:37

Quote:

Originally Posted by Enchanted Krystal

Leaving from Boreas Seabed, I go this way. Most times you get 5 chests & I always run in HM. Run takes 6 mins max.

I take a very similar route, although my runs never take longer than 4:20 seconds, and that's with absolute shit spawns and me derping, most are 3:30-3:50. Even when running with 2 accounts I don't ever get 6min runs, you must be doing something wrong tbh. Running 2 accounts I usually get around 4:30-5:30 runs depending on spawns. Sometimes even 4:00-ish runs. Shadow of Haste is your friend in Pongmei.

Anyway, I have an update on my test. I finally found some time to play today and did 100 chests in Witman's Folly NM, here are my results. I'm not doing 200 chests btw, I barely even have time to do Nicholas the last few weeks, so I'll stick with 100.

First screen:

Second screen:

Conclusion of my runs:

I had a retain rate of 56%, so I broke a little bit more lockpicks than I should have statistically, but still around the right number.

- Number of lockpicks broken: 51 cost = 61,2k (I buy my lockpicks for 1,2k/ea)
- Total money earned from merching everything: 19,702 gold.

Net gain: -41,498 gold.

Extra info:

-100 chests opened resulted in 33 gold items and 67 purples. Making the gold-purple ratio about exactly 1/3 - 2/3.

-I actually got a lot of 2 chest runs in the end, I don't know why, but it annoyed me. Was there a spawn point I didn't know about? Does it happen often? I had about 10 or so 2 chest runs, all of which were ~2:30 because I had to run all the way to Droks to realize there wasn't a chest there and resign.

-I got quite some survivor and blessed insignias, and some half baked superior runes. No sup vigor though. Even if I did get one, that would still be ~30k loss.

Personal notes:

-I have to admit I am surprised by the actual speed of the run. On a lot of runs I got my 3 chests at around 1:30 or on rare occasions even less. This speaks in favor of the run, but since I'm not here to investigate average speed, but NM vs HM money gain, it's not really relevant.

-I blacked out the name, not because I have something to hide, but because the account isn't actually mine, it's a friend's account, but he quit a long time ago. Nonetheless, the account is his property, I only have permission to use it, so I'm not making the name public.

-I won't have time to play again until this weekend probably, or maybe thursday, so my Pongmei test will have to wait until then.

Reformed · May 07, 2012, 04:49 PM // 16:49

@ Whirl E Vic - The decimal values you posted I assume are meant to be put back in as an overall percentage of that drop. Why not just list the actual values here? Also, curious that you wound up with exactly 5% Elite Tomes with variance being what it is.

@ Bright - There will always be 3 chests in Witman's. Periodically you will get them in the south-central region of the zone or way off on the eastern edge which isn't ideal for the run.

HigherMinion · May 07, 2012, 08:17 PM // 20:17

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bright Star Shine

Anyway, I have an update on my test. I finally found some time to play today and did 100 chests in Witman's Folly NM, here are my results. I'm not doing 200 chests btw, I barely even have time to do Nicholas the last few weeks, so I'll stick with 100.

I had a retain rate of 56%, so I broke a little bit more lockpicks than I should have statistically, but still around the right number.

- Number of lockpicks broken: 51 cost = 61,2k (I buy my lockpicks for 1,2k/ea)
- Total money earned from merching everything: 19,702 gold.

Net gain: -41,498 gold.

Extra info:

-100 chests opened resulted in 33 gold items and 67 purples. Making the gold-purple ratio about exactly 1/3 - 2/3.

-I got quite some survivor and blessed insignias, and some half baked superior runes. No sup vigor though. Even if I did get one, that would still be ~30k loss.

-I have to admit I am surprised by the actual speed of the run. On a lot of runs I got my 3 chests at around 1:30 or on rare occasions even less. This speaks in favor of the run, but since I'm not here to investigate average speed, but NM vs HM money gain, it's not really relevant.

I am currently doing my own testing on economic running in Witman's NM. I've just hit 100 chests so will share my data, but I am intending to spend 100 picks completely.

Picks used for 100 chests: 33. Retention chance: 65%
money from merching: 18,178g
Net loss: 21,422g

Now... My retention rate is slightly higher, but... I don't quite understand why your net loss was double. If your stats aren't skewed then this only indicates how sporadic the loss is.

I achieved the same sort of ratio of grape:gold. 27 golds, 73 grapes. I only got one survivor insignia and no other runes, which also shows the sporadic nature of how much you can make or lose from the run.

Quick note, thanks for noticing the speed of the run. This atleast shows it is very effective for Treasure Hunter and Lucky. Now to prove the economic bit.

Bright Star Shine · May 08, 2012, 06:08 AM // 06:08

Quote:

Originally Posted by HigherMinion

Now... My retention rate is slightly higher, but... I don't quite understand why your net loss was double. If your stats aren't skewed then this only indicates how sporadic the loss is.

Well, I even got a bit more from merching the 100 chests (19,702) than you, but I guess you can average it up to ~20k for 100 chests. From there on you can calculate your net loss/gain depending on your retain chances. For Witman's to be economically break even, you need to have a retention rate of ~83-84%. I'm curious as to how my Pongmei test will turn out

BIG EDIT:

I actually did find some time today to do my 100 Pongmei runs. I documented my findings really thoroughly, here are the results.

I actually ran 101 chests, because that's how the numbers worked out. I'll leave the last drop I had (a purple Amber Wand + broken Lockpick) out of my equation (I also didn't merch it).

Start screen:

End screen:

I had a base retain chance of 26%. On my 100 chests I broke 77 Lockpicks, which is about right.

77 broken picks = 92,4k

I will count the normal tomes as 300g/ea regardless of what it is, and the Elite necro + elite assa is an extra 13k as well.

So, money refunded: 46,918 + 13 + 2,1 = 62,018k

Meaning that my total gain from 100 Pongmei chests is -30,382 gold.

I had a total of 73 gold drops (counting Elite tomes as gold) and 27 purple (counting normal tome as purple) making the total balance about 2/3 - 1/3 in reverse. A little bit more on the gold side.

EXTRA: My chest spawns. I had the following amount of chests, in order:
5-5-5-5-5-4-5-5-4-5-5-5-4-5-5-5-5-4-5-5-5 making the average number of chests (on 101) 4,80. Which is a lot higher than I expected it to be.

I screenied all my drops, except for 1 run, where I had 4 purples and 1 gold armor because I dc'ed there. Here is the picture (I'm not going to directly post it, because that would make my post super long).

I id'ed a grand total of 4 items myself, being the following:

I didn't id the skeleton shield because it had +41ench on it, which wasn't worth it to me to id.

Extra notes: I had very little elite tomes tbh, usually I get more, and better ones, but even completely without my elite tomes, I would have had about the same loss that I would have had in Witman's Folly. Because I usually run Pongmei with both my alt and my main account, I make a lot less loss/maybe even a little bit of profit because my main account has max TH and max Lucky.

In case someone wants to challenge my conclusion: Pongmei HM is still more profitable than Witman's, maybe just a little less profitable than I thought. Feel free to do a similar test to mine and post your results. Until then, I'm fairly positive this entire thing is cleared up.

Reformed · May 08, 2012, 02:18 PM // 14:18

How did you get 46,918 as your base "money refunded"? If we exclude your other drops (based on your numbers 2x elite and 7x reg) that leaves you 91 drops. That's a whopping ~516g average value compared to your Witman average which is ~197g.

jague · May 08, 2012, 03:28 PM // 15:28

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reformed

How did you get 46,918 as your base "money refunded"? If we exclude your other drops (based on your numbers 2x elite and 7x reg) that leaves you 91 drops. That's a whopping ~516g average value compared to your Witman average which is ~197g.

i think he might have had lots of armors (i get them a lot) and made some money by selling the runes.

EDIT: just took a look at the drops and i think i might be right ^^

HigherMinion · May 08, 2012, 06:29 PM // 18:29

So in conclusion, at least for the time being, Witman's is the fastest run for Treasure Hunter and Lucky while Pongmei is better for Wisdom and slightly more economic, with lucky drops.

Bright Star Shine · May 08, 2012, 08:05 PM // 20:05

Quote:

Originally Posted by HigherMinion

So in conclusion, at least for the time being, Witman's is the fastest run for Treasure Hunter and Lucky while Pongmei is better for Wisdom and slightly more economic, with lucky drops.

Well, as I stated, my drops in Pongmei were way below average, all being pretty bad, and very few elite tomes (usually I get about 2-3/50 chests), so maybe you could end up at an average of ~20-25k loss. Especially with higher retain chances (which, if your intention is to max your treasure will certainly be the case for over half of your chests done).

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reformed

How did you get 46,918 as your base "money refunded"? If we exclude your other drops (based on your numbers 2x elite and 7x reg) that leaves you 91 drops. That's a whopping ~516g average value compared to your Witman average which is ~197g.

As I said beforehand, I sell all my crap golds unid for 700g/ea, in my end screenshot you can even see my last trade, and id the potentially good ones (I knew beforehand that the Emblazoned and the Plagueborn were +45wE and +30 respectively). So I ended up id'ing 19 things (as you can see when you compare wisdom) out of the 70 golds (excluding elite tomes), leaving me with the remainder of golds to be sold as unid for 700g/ea. That's 35,7k out of almost 47k.

HigherMinion · May 08, 2012, 09:20 PM // 21:20

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bright Star Shine

Well, as I stated, my drops in Pongmei were way below average, all being pretty bad, and very few elite tomes (usually I get about 2-3/50 chests), so maybe you could end up at an average of ~20-25k loss. Especially with higher retain chances (which, if your intention is to max your treasure will certainly be the case for over half of your chests done).

As I said beforehand, I sell all my crap golds unid for 700g/ea, in my end screenshot you can even see my last trade, and id the potentially good ones (I knew beforehand that the Emblazoned and the Plagueborn were +45wE and +30 respectively). So I ended up id'ing 19 things (as you can see when you compare wisdom) out of the 70 golds (excluding elite tomes), leaving me with the remainder of golds to be sold as unid for 700g/ea. That's 35,7k out of almost 47k.

Hang on. You said you merched everything in Witman's, but you're selling all your golds for 700g each from Pongmei? That's a balanced test, is it?

Bright Star Shine · May 08, 2012, 10:20 PM // 22:20

Quote:

Originally Posted by HigherMinion

Hang on. You said you merched everything in Witman's, but you're selling all your golds for 700g each from Pongmei? That's a balanced test, is it?

I know, but your claim was that with NM Witman's and merching everything, you would lose less money than with Pongmei HM, selling crap golds my way (which was my claim). Or at least so I understood. So I tested both claims against each other exactly how they were made.

If you want to sell the unids in Witman's NM, which were 33 golds, some of which were armors, I think I had about 12 armors in Witman's and the rest goldies. So let's say each goldy is, on average, worth 300g, meaning that we'll just add the 400g difference you would have gotten off selling them unid, so 21x0,4 = 8,4k. Add 8,4k to the total money gotten from the run, i.e. extract them from the loss you'll still be at -33,098k, which is still a worse 'average' than a bad Pongmei try (I'm using average loosely here, because my test was only over 100 chests).

HigherMinion · May 09, 2012, 12:39 AM // 00:39

My initial claim was that Witman's was the fastest and most economic run. I suggest, for better results, going through 100 LOCKPICKS, not chests. This will yield much better results. The amount of picks you broke for NM were a wild fluke. I did 100 chests with only 33 picks.

You will find your results are inaccurate and even biased since you fixed it to be "merch everything at witmans/ptrade everything in Kama for Pongmei".

snodaard · May 09, 2012, 08:20 AM // 08:20

Quote:

Originally Posted by HigherMinion

My initial claim was that Witman's was the fastest and most economic run. I suggest, for better results, going through 100 LOCKPICKS, not chests. This will yield much better results. The amount of picks you broke for NM were a wild fluke. I did 100 chests with only 33 picks.

You will find your results are inaccurate and even biased since you fixed it to be "merch everything at witmans/ptrade everything in Kama for Pongmei".

you're wrong again. The amount of broken picks was taken into account. Which is lower for whitmans then for pongmei in 100 chests. If you would do 100 picks you would indeed get more items in whitmans then in pongmei, but they will be, as has been shown by bright now, of a lesser value.

Also I find it quite strange that you want the pongmei chest items to not go through kamadan. you said whitmans is the best in any way. So if there's evidence that pongmei is better on the economics if you go through kamadan with the items, you should do that with the witmans items too, even though these items are all crappy.

One final note. I personally think whitman's is not so nice for maxing treasure hunter. it indeed is very very vast, but it's also mindbogingly boring imho. I tried it some times but I couldn't stand doing it longer then 20 mins cus most of the items are purple and you can't possibly get anything of any value. But that's just my feeling.