Guild Wars Forums - GW Guru
 
 

Go Back   Guild Wars Forums - GW Guru > The Inner Circle > Community Works

Notices

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old Feb 21, 2008, 08:24 PM // 20:24   #1
Jungle Guide
 
EndlessDivination's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Guild: [SNOW], duh?
Profession: Mo/
Advertisement

Disable Ads
Arrow The Real Significance of Retaining (A Chestrunner Must-Know)

Interesting fact : with 100 lockpicks and a 50% retaining chance, you will open ~200 Chests.

Why is that? Well here's the theory behind it

You have a certain chance to retain, lets call that X (Retain Chance in Decimal Form)
Yes, we're going back to math class everyone.
P=% of Lockpicks you will use (Assume 100%, so 1)
So great, its just 1 + 1X, right? Well no, because you can retain twice in a row...
So 1 + 1X + 1X^2? No, you can retain more than 2 times in a row.
The answer is actually expressed as a Geometric Series...

Limit 1+X+X^2+X^3 ... X^n
n->∞

"Well how can I add up all that"? Well lucky for you the limit turns out much simpler than it looks...
This limit is actually

1/(1-X)

Yup, thats it!
So for 50%, you plug in .5, and get 2. That means if you have 100 Picks, you can open ~200 Chests. (2x100)

You can use this for any retain %

"What's this good for?"
Well numerous things.

1)You can more accurately determine whether or not it is worth Chestrunning in NM vs HM

2) Figure out your expenses for getting Chest/Lucky Titles

3) More accurately determine your profit margin with opening chests
EndlessDivination is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Feb 24, 2008, 09:20 PM // 21:20   #2
Ascalonian Squire
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Default

I'm not sure about your math. It confuses me to thing about it, but I think you're missing something. Allow me to try a different approach. With X keys, how many chests will you open?

So with x as number of keys and r as retain rate , it's x+rx...and that's where I think something happens.

xr^2 would indeed be the number left after two runs. Yeah, I guess you're right. That series would be

inf
sum (xr^n)
n=0

Math tells me that if we find m such that mr+1=m, m*x will be the number of chests opened with x keys at r retain rate.

Our rate is 50%, we have 100 keys. .5m+1=m, 1=.5m, m=2. x=100, mx=200. Yeah, you're right. Never mind me, I'm just a blabbering fool.

Last edited by Turgon Lei Kung; Feb 24, 2008 at 09:29 PM // 21:29..
Turgon Lei Kung is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Feb 24, 2008, 09:56 PM // 21:56   #3
Ascalonian Squire
 
Murkrow's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Guild: The Lab Squad
Profession: R/
Default

If I understand this correctly, it's:
100/1+100/2+100/4+100/8+100/16+100/32+100/64+100/128+100/256+...


So if I'd go to just 4096 right there... that makes it 199.975586 chests.

Seems right - it's hard to believe, but statistics say so (disregarding the fact that I may have totally misinterpreted this).
Murkrow is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Feb 24, 2008, 10:07 PM // 22:07   #4
Jungle Guide
 
angmar_nite's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Guild: [SNOW] of [YUM]
Profession: E/
Default

Nicee endless. This'll serve me well indeed.
angmar_nite is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Feb 25, 2008, 01:34 AM // 01:34   #5
Jungle Guide
 
Sword's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Profession: Mo/
Default

having fun in precalculus? hehe ...
Sword is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Feb 25, 2008, 04:35 AM // 04:35   #6
Lion's Arch Merchant
 
Mr Emu's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Profession: W/A
Default

omg, limit as x approaches 1!!!!! whole world asplodes!!
Mr Emu is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Feb 25, 2008, 04:42 AM // 04:42   #7
Academy Page
 
NathanMurray's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Sydney, Australia
Guild: No Guild Yet Starting Fresh
Profession: N/
Default

Wow I'm not good at math. So I compensate by killing stuff In GW
NathanMurray is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Feb 25, 2008, 04:44 AM // 04:44   #8
Jungle Guide
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Guild: SCAR
Profession: E/
Default

wow congrats on learning some algebra. i can't wait until you learn calculus and real math and contribute knowledge then.
Sacratus Ignis is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Feb 25, 2008, 11:53 AM // 11:53   #9
Desert Nomad
 
Sjeng's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: in my GH
Guild: Limburgse Jagers [LJ]
Profession: W/
Default

That's an elaborate way of stating the obvious, isn't it? :P
Sjeng is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Feb 25, 2008, 12:26 PM // 12:26   #10
Furnace Stoker
 
Terra Xin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: New Zealand
Profession: Me/R
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sjeng
That's an elaborate way of stating the obvious, isn't it? :P
I couldn't believe it myself. I was worried that I had missed something when I noticed that the first three replies had taken it seriously.

What a strange thread...
Terra Xin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Feb 25, 2008, 07:41 PM // 19:41   #11
Jungle Guide
 
EndlessDivination's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Guild: [SNOW], duh?
Profession: Mo/
Default

Well actually its not common knowledge that the whole problem converges.. Not sure how thats obvious, but ok. Definitely wouldn't learn that in precalc, thats for sure
This is a summation problem, not learned until integrating so....
@ guy with creative name (Um yeah): Not this summation

Last edited by EndlessDivination; Feb 25, 2008 at 09:45 PM // 21:45..
EndlessDivination is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Feb 25, 2008, 07:53 PM // 19:53   #12
Desert Nomad
 
Horseman Of War's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Guild: The Cult of Doom
Profession: P/
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by EndlessDivination
3) More accurately determine your profit margin with opening chests
^ ah here I figured it was zero... but I see now its .001


"oh yay a superior wilderness survival rune!"
Horseman Of War is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Feb 25, 2008, 08:54 PM // 20:54   #13
Frost Gate Guardian
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Guild: Illusions of Grandeur [Illu]
Profession: W/
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by EndlessDivination
Well actually its not common knowledge that the whole problem converges.. Not sure how thats obvious, but ok. Definitely wouldn't learn that in precalc, thats for sure
This is a summation problem, not learned until integrating so....
No, summation is taught in precalc.
Um Yeah is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Feb 27, 2008, 09:36 AM // 09:36   #14
Jungle Guide
 
Sword's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Profession: Mo/
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Um Yeah
No, summation is taught in precalc.
depends on what high school you went to =p
Sword is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Feb 27, 2008, 04:25 PM // 16:25   #15
Furnace Stoker
 
ShadowsRequiem's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Guild: Inde is Smoking [Hawt] *ToA*
Profession: W/E
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sword
depends on what high school you went to =p
No, he must ride the short bus.
ShadowsRequiem is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Feb 27, 2008, 06:16 PM // 18:16   #16
Krytan Explorer
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: calgary, alberta, canada
Guild: The Crimson Knighthood [CRIM]
Profession: W/
Default

i have no clue why you put x and r in math.. -.-

retards
Chik N Nuggets is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Feb 28, 2008, 03:11 AM // 03:11   #17
Desert Nomad
 
Nemo the Capitalist's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Trust me you dont want to know my Chasms of Despair
Guild: Zaishen Brotherhood
Profession: N/Me
Default

in theory if u flip a coin 30 times ideally it would be

15 heads
15 tails

but in all reality you will get numbers like 14H/16T
etc etc

the more you do the more likely it will be 50/50....ideally
Nemo the Capitalist is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Feb 29, 2008, 03:08 PM // 15:08   #18
Furnace Stoker
 
Terra Xin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: New Zealand
Profession: Me/R
Default

This thread is like saying 1 + 1 = 1^1(1 x 1)/1 + 2/2... window.

*sigh*

The 'real' significance of retaining is that you have a 50% chance that your lockpick wont break, no need to make it complicated when it's already supposed to be understood... 'Simplify, man!'

Last edited by Terra Xin; Feb 29, 2008 at 03:11 PM // 15:11..
Terra Xin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Feb 29, 2008, 08:43 PM // 20:43   #19
Jungle Guide
 
EndlessDivination's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Guild: [SNOW], duh?
Profession: Mo/
Arrow

Quote:
Originally Posted by Terra Xin
This thread is like saying 1 + 1 = 1^1(1 x 1)/1 + 2/2... window.

*sigh*

The 'real' significance of retaining is that you have a 50% chance that your lockpick wont break, no need to make it complicated when it's already supposed to be understood... 'Simplify, man!'
No im not saying 1+1=.... not anything like that, thanks for bringing the post to the top though (Lol). All these erroneous/inaccurate remarks are making this thread #1, sw33t. The point of this post is to be able to estimate how many chests you will be able to open taking into account your retain %... doing that x + x^2 ... is alot of number crunching, and this simplifies it. If you dont understand how thats not simplified.. well then i dont know what to say
EndlessDivination is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Feb 29, 2008, 09:41 PM // 21:41   #20
Wilds Pathfinder
 
shru's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chik N Nuggets
i have no clue why you put x and r in math.. -.-

retards
Just wait unti'll you're old enough to go to school.
shru is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Share This Forum!  
 
 
           

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Significance of the new large AoE hexes (PvP) Hella Good The Campfire 2 Oct 20, 2006 04:18 AM // 04:18
Significance of the little dog ? Aisius Screenshot Exposition 38 Jul 11, 2006 04:17 AM // 04:17
Anti-Mindblade E/R, retaining nuking abilities JMFD The Campfire 3 Aug 23, 2005 02:35 AM // 02:35
Phleanor Questions & Answers 3 Jul 28, 2005 02:16 PM // 14:16


All times are GMT. The time now is 03:24 PM // 15:24.


Powered by: vBulletin
Copyright ©2000 - 2016, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
jQuery(document).ready(checkAds()); function checkAds(){if (document.getElementById('adsense')!=undefined){document.write("_gaq.push(['_trackEvent', 'Adblock', 'Unblocked', 'false',,true]);");}else{document.write("