Curse

Bobulation · Dec 18, 2008, 05:44 AM // 05:44

Quote:

Originally Posted by kuramoto

@Bobulation:
Stuff and things

Thanks that worked perfectly.

@Fril Estelin- Just set it up for all 8 accounts, thanks for your help too

This is so nice, all i have to do is double click an icon once a month and i get lots of free money.

Evil Neato · Dec 18, 2008, 02:10 PM // 14:10

Here's what it says atm for the lazy/incompetent/paranoid.

1v1:
Russia F T W 3.0,
Teh Mister Unknownz 5.0,
Hadshi Teh Ranger 5.375,
Assel No Lifer Haha 6.0,
Oo No Chance Oo 9.0,
K M T 10.5,
My Stef 12.5,
First Time Or Not 16.0

GvG:
Vent Rage 3.0
Team Paradigm 5.0
Rebel Rising 5.3125,
Dangerous And Moving 6.0,
Steel Phoenix 7.0625,
Virtual Escape 7.5,
Dangerous Pumpkins 7.75,
Anonymous Amateurs 9.0,
The Bouncers 10.0,
Pandas For World Domination 10.5,
I Disposable Heroes I 10.5,
No Mercy For Ducks 12.0,
Coloring Book 13.0,
Fish Sphere 15.0,
Big Bomb 16.0

MarlinBackna · Dec 18, 2008, 06:39 PM // 18:39

Very nice tool! I don't really follow GvG or 1v1, so these choices are probably better than the ones I would ever make, as the last time I tried Xunlai, I got 0 tickets. :P It was pretty simple, I must say, but I have programming experience, so I knew how to work the command prompt. GUI is for noobs, anyway.

Thanks.

Junior Gong · Dec 18, 2008, 07:50 PM // 19:50

Quote:

Originally Posted by Evil Neato

Here's what it says atm for the lazy/incompetent/paranoid.

GvG:
Vent Rage 3.0
Team Paradigm 5.0
Rebel Rising 5.3125,
Dangerous And Moving 6.0,
Steel Phoenix 7.0625,
Virtual Escape 7.5,
Dangerous Pumpkins 7.75,
Anonymous Amateurs 9.0,
The Bouncers 10.0,
Pandas For World Domination 10.5,
I Disposable Heroes I 10.5,
No Mercy For Ducks 12.0,
Coloring Book 13.0,
Fish Sphere 15.0,
Big Bomb 16.0

Nice joke, either that or there is something seriously wrong with this program, and no KMD is bad they are usually always a lock for a silver, and oh yea not including the winner of last months MaT and most likely winner of this month's MaT is bad too. The day 4 American guilds take top 4 is the day that.....well it'll never happen.

zwei2stein · Dec 19, 2008, 07:42 AM // 07:42

I forgot to ask right after ponits were awarded: how much points did you get?

I got 55 myself

Quote:

Originally Posted by Junior Gong

Nice joke, either that or there is something seriously wrong with this program, and no KMD is bad they are usually always a lock for a silver, and oh yea not including the winner of last months MaT and most likely winner of this month's MaT is bad too. The day 4 American guilds take top 4 is the day that.....well it'll never happen.

Thanks for feedback.

Winner of Last MAT should be predicted pretty high, unless they sucked really, really bad in past. Maybe they did not qualify yet? This will not predict for unqualified guilds because it is kinda pointless.

Yarly · Dec 19, 2008, 11:09 AM // 11:09

I like how much effort you've put into this mate.

But i also can't help laughing at what your program predicts. Its really bad at its job.

Nightow · Dec 19, 2008, 01:10 PM // 13:10

How do we find out who won the last MAT?

EDIT: Yes, picked up 55 points in the end.

Fril Estelin · Dec 19, 2008, 05:26 PM // 17:26

Quote:

Originally Posted by zwei2stein

I forgot to ask right after ponits were awarded: how much points did you get?

I got 55 myself

Same here (x2).

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yarly

Its really bad at its job.

Well since the program's job is not to optimise the predictions but rather give a very fast and not totally dumb prediction, it's doing the job perfectly fine. The keyword here is fast, not accurate.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nightow

How do we find out who won the last MAT?

Check each month here (that's what the program is doing!):
http://www.guildwars.com/competitive...08/default.php

Abedeus · Dec 20, 2008, 07:34 AM // 07:34

A piece of advice - don't check the source with Google Chrome. Only Firefox/probably Opera will show your user_id...

Div · Dec 20, 2008, 07:44 AM // 07:44

Quote:

Originally Posted by Evil Neato

GvG:
Vent Rage 3.0
Team Paradigm 5.0
Rebel Rising 5.3125,
Dangerous And Moving 6.0,
Steel Phoenix 7.0625,
Virtual Escape 7.5,
Dangerous Pumpkins 7.75,
Anonymous Amateurs 9.0,
The Bouncers 10.0,
Pandas For World Domination 10.5,
I Disposable Heroes I 10.5,
No Mercy For Ducks 12.0,
Coloring Book 13.0,
Fish Sphere 15.0,
Big Bomb 16.0

Biggest problems with this program (and how to fix):
1) This completely misses guilds that aren't qualified yet (fix: run this on the last day)
2) Terrible teams that play a lot are ranked high. Vent rage being highest by a large margin? pd second? Are you serious? They'd be lucky if they got top 8. (fix: weigh this with actual predictions made by Mitch/me/Asp)

People just need to make the extra effort (5 minutes maybe?) of going to the thread and looking at what predictions others are making. I generally get 100 or more RPs predicting this, with 80 being the lowest I've gotten. That's at least 5 zkeys more than what this set of predictions gives you, so I'd say 5 extra minutes spent for 5+ more zkeys is worth it?

Nightow · Dec 20, 2008, 07:48 AM // 07:48

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fril Estelin

Check each month here (that's what the program is doing!):
http://www.guildwars.com/competitive...08/default.php

Thanks for the link. I guess it updates the Monday after the tourney?

Div · Dec 20, 2008, 07:53 AM // 07:53

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fril Estelin

Well since the program's job is not to optimise the predictions but rather give a very fast and not totally dumb prediction, it's doing the job perfectly fine.

I'd have to argue against the "not totally dumb prediction"

I'd do better just picking the 8 highest ranked guilds (rawr, KMD, DM, sup, NOW, AA, WWF, vE) than a list with vent rage and team paradigm. In fact, my predicted top 8 based on actual team skill (and of course it'll be off depending on matchups in elims) contains 6 guilds in the "top 8" list, versus 4 in the generated list.

Fril Estelin · Dec 20, 2008, 10:18 AM // 10:18

Quote:

Originally Posted by holymasamune

People just need to make the extra effort (5 minutes maybe?) of going to the thread and looking at what predictions others are making.

I did this several times, and it takes more than 5mins: 1) for someone not actively aware of the GvG scene, there are lots of private jokes and references you can't get unless you're in the know; 2) posted predictions on the thread have a lot of conflicts, even for those we know (well, that's the job you have to do to make it a "prediction", after a while you pick a few people you trust and weight their opinion higher); 3) this time can be better spent when you're not so adamant to win hundreds of plats or a shiny /zrank (in other words, people play prediction for free stuff like NF's Treasures, not for predicting).

But your idea of looking at the guild ladder directly is interesting...

P.S.: I used to observe and check the Guru threads (including your posts), but came to a point where I didn't have the time; that's where this tool comes in handy. I know that the balance time/benefit doesn't have to change much, yet sometimes time is of essence.

P.S. 2: this month, I'll try automated prediction on 1account and gather info from Guru thread to have a feel of the difference.

zwei2stein · Dec 20, 2008, 11:50 AM // 11:50

Quote:

Originally Posted by holymasamune

I'd have to argue against the "not totally dumb prediction"

I'd do better just picking the 8 highest ranked guilds (rawr, KMD, DM, sup, NOW, AA, WWF, vE) than a list with vent rage and team paradigm. In fact, my predicted top 8 based on actual team skill (and of course it'll be off depending on matchups in elims) contains 6 guilds in the "top 8" list, versus 4 in the generated list.

As said before somewhere else, if you are willing to supply RSS feed or something similar with your, better, predictions, then we can make this tool use your predictions instead of robotic ones.

For next prediction, I will have modified algorithm, so we will see about quality by then, but it will not be anywhere as good as human with inside info.

Fril Estelin · Dec 20, 2008, 01:29 PM // 13:29

Quote:

Originally Posted by zwei2stein

As said before somewhere else, if you are willing to supply RSS feed or something similar with your, better, predictions, then we can make this tool use your predictions instead of robotic ones.

What about you add to the mix of information grabbed from GW website a local file "additional_predictions.pred" which has the data format you prefer and then Divine and other trustworthy predictors can share this information (here or on the Guru thread) using this format? And then the future version of the predictor adds weighting of these sources of information to compute predictions.

P.S.: I'll help with coding in 2009 if you want.

Hara Makoto · Dec 20, 2008, 02:44 PM // 14:44

it's not working for me, what predictions are you guys getting on this?

Bobulation · Dec 20, 2008, 04:20 PM // 16:20

New predictions, seems better than before, but still has some bad guilds in the top...

Whats Going On
Vent Rage
We Want Cookies
Team Paradigm
Rebel Rising
Dangerous and Moving
Steel Phoenix
Virtual Escape

sykoone · Dec 20, 2008, 08:50 PM // 20:50

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobulation

New predictions, seems better than before, but still has some bad guilds in the top...

Whats Going On
Vent Rage
We Want Cookies
Team Paradigm
Rebel Rising
Dangerous and Moving
Steel Phoenix
Virtual Escape

Only three of those guilds made top 8, so it seems a bit off. Looks like about 7 pp, so 50 rp. No offense, but you'd probably have better luck just cramming 8 guilds from the first page at random in the list.

Bobulation · Dec 20, 2008, 09:59 PM // 21:59

Quote:

Originally Posted by sykoone

Only three of those guilds made top 8, so it seems a bit off. Looks like about 7 pp, so 50 rp. No offense, but you'd probably have better luck just cramming 8 guilds from the first page at random in the list.

Forgot it was already past the time.. but here are the 1v1 predictions...

Yu Gi Oh Wtf Oo
Russia F T W
Teh Mister Unknownz
Hadshi Teh Ranger
Tsu Le Cordonbleu
Assel No Lifer Haha
The Lucky Pig
Oo No Chance Oo

Ive never followed HB so i have absolutely no clue on these..

Div · Dec 21, 2008, 10:00 PM // 22:00

Quote:

Originally Posted by zwei2stein

As said before somewhere else, if you are willing to supply RSS feed or something similar with your, better, predictions, then we can make this tool use your predictions instead of robotic ones.

I'll generally have my predictions up about a few days to a week before the mAT, and same with Mitch and Asp. You can just take our predictions from there and convert it to whatever you need to make it work.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fril Estelin

1) for someone not actively aware of the GvG scene, there are lots of private jokes and references you can't get unless you're in the know; 2) posted predictions on the thread have a lot of conflicts, even for those we know (well, that's the job you have to do to make it a "prediction", after a while you pick a few people you trust and weight their opinion higher);

Yeah, it's generally hard to tell which predictions are good and which are just jokes, but Mitch and Asp generally give pretty good predictions. I tend to ignore the rest.

Quote:

But your idea of looking at the guild ladder directly is interesting...

While it doesn't account for reforms, purposeful tanking, or any other variables, ladder rank is somewhat decent for telling consistency and recent performance in mATs/ATs/ladder.