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Old Dec 09, 2009, 12:01 AM // 00:01   #1
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Default If I really want a mini gwen doll...

If I really want a mini gwendoll, would it be cheaper (or wiser), to just buy Nick's gifts from other players, or to just fork over the money for just the doll.

Nick is a S.O.B. anyways, he promised me a gwendoll a couple months ago, and now he just gives me junk...

Just a question...

oh yea and please tell me why you think its smart or stupid to do whatever you suggest plz, k thnx bai
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Old Dec 09, 2009, 12:05 AM // 00:05   #2
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I would just buy it if I were you.

It's very little hassle (just lots of gold) for a guaranteed outcome, versus a lot of hassle for an iffy outcome.

You obviously really want this, and you could potentially spend even more on gifts and never get the doll. I wouldn't risk luck of the draw, personally. Cheaper is relative, if the outcome of the money spent isn't certain.

Just save up, and you'll know for sure you're working toward getting it.
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Old Dec 09, 2009, 12:32 AM // 00:32   #3
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I would save up and purchase the Gwen Doll from another player. Last I checked, the Gwen Doll had a less than 1% drop rate.

You could think of it as a raffle almost. Lets say for a big screen TV (Gwen Doll). You can buy alot of raffle tickes (traveler gifts) and POSSIBLY get the TV, OR you could just go buy the TV (maybe even on sale ).
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Old Dec 09, 2009, 12:34 AM // 00:34   #4
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Save up, most likely you will not get one from a present
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Old Dec 09, 2009, 02:03 AM // 02:03   #5
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+1 Vote to save up and get it from another player.

Far more reliable!
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Old Dec 09, 2009, 02:43 AM // 02:43   #6
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You'll probably end up spending more on the gifts than if you were to just buy it from players.

So, I'd go for buying it directly.
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Old Dec 09, 2009, 02:49 AM // 02:49   #7
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id say take the risk since 80e is easy to make and i got a doll earlyer on back when they came out . for me i like the risk being im almsot z5 and i just do the title cuz its fun having the chances of getting 100e+ items.

i know a runner for foundary who can do it in 30 mintures every time and he charges 20k a person and every1 knows hes good so they pay. 5 people 20k per person is 100k per 30 minutes being 200k per hour. thats 32e ish on average ecto per hour not including drops.

now doll being 80-90e it would only take 3 hours if not less to achieve this so id say take the risk and have fun
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Old Dec 09, 2009, 02:57 AM // 02:57   #8
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I'd save up for the doll.
Cheers
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Old Dec 09, 2009, 03:38 AM // 03:38   #9
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buy mini, chance of saving money through just presents very slim. too much of a gamble.
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Old Dec 09, 2009, 03:44 AM // 03:44   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eragon Zarroc View Post
buy mini, chance of saving money through just presents very slim. too much of a gamble.
Gambles are fun tho it takes a few hours to make the 90 ecto might as well take a small gamble
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Old Dec 09, 2009, 05:39 AM // 05:39   #11
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buy it. dont wait on chance i am still waiting through my crap. my friend got me a gwen doll. and if you dont mind it being dedicated they are cheaper then unded. like a lot cheaper.
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Old Dec 09, 2009, 07:31 AM // 07:31   #12
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I would say.... if you really want a Doll and only a doll from the gifts, then buy it (still get the pressies and sell them each week).

If however, you have a use for the other crxx "stuff" that comes from the gifts, then go the gift route.. I dont like forking out 5k a time buying them though, just getting my own when I can be bothered (usually forget each week until Im falling asleep on Sunday night).
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Old Dec 09, 2009, 07:52 AM // 07:52   #13
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Buying a gift is almost 5k , 4 if you are lucky. Youll do better buying the ectos because you gotta have bloody lot amounts of luck to get a mini gwen doll in ..... 150 gifts ? i can tell you , i opened about that amount and no yakk , no gwen , no bo staff , no vamp sword ..... dont go there mate , dont go there.

PS: Ded mini gwens are cheaper
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Old Dec 09, 2009, 10:48 AM // 10:48   #14
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i got more then 1account ...so i get an average of bout 20gifts a week without buying them ,so far i did not get a pet at least opened up like 300-500gifts so far ...

i'd say save up :-)
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Old Dec 09, 2009, 12:10 PM // 12:10   #15
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In over 500 gifts I have only gotten 1 rare thing. And that was an EL Cottontail. :\ Just buy it straight up from a player.
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Old Dec 09, 2009, 05:43 PM // 17:43   #16
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I haven't missed a week since Nick started travelling and I haven't received any rare item yet; the best I've done is kegs of ale. I'll keep trying, I love Nick, but if there were something I couldn't live without I'd buy the item and not the gifts.
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Old Sep 03, 2012, 02:53 PM // 14:53   #17
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Lightbulb Chance of a Gwen Doll

Please feel free to critique the maths but I also really want a Gwen Doll and no one is selling so I took a shot at the probability distribution function:

The chance of getting a Gwen Doll, g is 0.05% (0.0005) therefore chance of not getting one (1-g) is 99.95% (0.9995).

The chance of not getting any Gwen Dolls from n presents is just the chance of not getting one to the power of n => (1-g)^n. (not scoring, not scoring, not scoring ... me trying to pull women on a series of endless Friday nights out)

The chance of getting anything else (i.e. getting anything other than nothing => one or more dolls) is just 1-(1-g)^n. (He scores and it could (only in theory) even be a threesome)

If you want to know how many presents you'd have to open for a certain chance of a Gwen Doll, say I'd like to be 5/6 sure of getting a doll then.

1-(1-g)^n = 5/6 => 1-5/6= (1-g)^n => n log(1-g) = log(1/6) => n = log(1/6) / log(1-g)

So, if any of this is correct, in order to be (on average) certain (does that even make sense?!) to the extent of 5/6 of at least one Gwen Doll we'd want to open 3,582 presents and there is still a 1/6 of not getting one.

It's a crapshoot and a rich man's game. Might power up Visual Basic later and run a quick simulator to just test out the above. I'm bound to have got it wrong somewhere along the way.
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